After every election we get a lot of people making a lot of absolute assertions about what the election meant and, more importantly, how it heralds a change in the political landscape that is clear and will never, ever again be doubted.
These are usually in the form of "The Democratic Party is Doomed" and "The Republican Party is Doomed." I have seen those memes play out in more elections than I care to name and, y'know what? Two to four years later, they flip-flop.
That's usually because personality plays a huge role in politics, especially in things like the presidential races. And other factors on the ground — the economy, scandals, major geopolitical events, natural disasters, etc. — can all have an effect beyond what the general analysts can foresee. Like Hari Seldon, even when the most clear-eyed, they can only predict trends, not upsetting event.
That said, there are a very small set of factors that are going to set those overall trends. I suspect either party will adapt to them over time, but the lag in doing so will be a major factor.
The first is demographics, which the article below touches on. The GOP keeps trying and failing to bridge the gap between their majority older, whiter, male-er constituency and other groups that are coming along in power (women) and numbers (ethnic/racial minorities, esp. Black and Hispanic populations).
There are reasons for these failures. Because the GOP is still barely winning, the pressure to change is lower than it should be, and the pressure to dog-whistle to the stereotypical constituencies continues to work, esp. as the GOP puts its thumbs on the scales with various voting gimmicks. But, ultimately, without changing its appeal and us-vs-them (and-you-know-who-THEY- are) mentality, the clock is ticking.
This kind of change is perfectly doable — there are plenty of moderate once-considered-mainstream GOP policy proposals and directions that, while I don't agree with them as much as more progressive policies these days, are not so toxic as to drive entire populations away from the GOP brand. The GOP of Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, even elements of the (couldn't be elected today) Reagan and G H W Bush eras could attract a lot of attention back. It would me abandoning the theocrats and the Randians, but it can be done.
The missing piece in the article below, when it comes to the presidential elections, is one more thumb-on-the-scales action I think we'll see the GOP (at the state level, though organized nationally) do, and that's tinker with the electoral college system itself. We're already seeing that in Michigan, where proposals are being made to allocate electoral votes based roughly on the popular vote. Other even-more-pernicious proposals allocate them based on congressional districts, which suddenly makes gerrymandering the hell out of the map a lot more attractive for whichever party is in power. These proposals are coming strictly from GOP-dominated statehouses, and all are designed to flip EVs over to the red side of things. And that could change the complexion of the map below substantially.
(Proportional voting certainly has something to say for it — if everyone does it. If not, then it's something easily gamed … and that's what is very openly being said by folk who are supporting it in proposals seriously under consideration.)
At any rate, as bummed as I was by how the midterms came out, it's hard for me to either despair (because things are likely to change again) or gloat in anticipation for 2016 (because of the intentional and unintentional things which could upset that election). I have to content myself with just Waiting and Seeing. And, when the time comes, Voting.
Originally shared by +Les Jenkins:
Upset about the Republican wins in the midterms? This'll make you feel better. Note: This was written by a Republican.
The missing story of the 2014 election
For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this tre…
I'll note that it is a very interesting article, and I think it says a lot of good and valuable things. I just find these sorts of articles generally irksome because they tend to be all over the map, subject to huge confirmation bias on the part of the reader, and suddenly change after the next election.
Barring any sort of unexpected Mule event, though, I would expect that the trends and ideas that Chris Ladd lines out would lead to the results he describes, except as potentially delayed by next frontier of electoral college gimmickry by the GOP.
Dave, I appreciate this post that offers hope for 2016. I am unfamiliar with the term "mule event." What does it mean in your context. Thanks.
Sorry, +Fred Mast, I was being more literarily clever than I ought to have been. I made reference earlier in the article to Hari Seldon, the fictional psycho-historian of Isaac Asimov's well-known Foundation trilogy. In the novels, Seldon predicts, mathematically, the future of the galaxy as the Galactic Empire falls into ruin (and then sets up some two Foundations to preserve knowledge and to shorten the ensuing Dark Ages significantly). While Seldon's predictions prove to be accurate, they founder when a mutant character known as the Mule is able to become a significant enough player so as to derail the mathematical / sociological trends that Seldon predicted.
My idea here is that while there are definite trends, as the author notes, that point to the current GOP successes being unstainable, an unpredictable Mule event — a national emergency, a Watergate-class scandal, an major change in tactics by the GOP — could upset those predictions.
My calling on an SF metaphor probably wasn't helped by the political similarity between Mules and Donkeys. 🙂
Anyway, sorry for the confusion. As they say, you know it's a bad joke (or metaphor) when you have to explain it.
Thanks, Dave. Now that I understand it, I think the term is appropriate. I think the GOP is immune to events at the tactical level. At a strategic level, I cling to belief that Americans come together when the chips are down. I hope I'm not wrong about that, too.