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The Republican “Victory”

So by running roughshod over every convention, forcing through a closed-door-written one-party budget with no hearings or even opportunity for input from the opposition, hand-waving polling that says the measure is highly unpopular, dropping any pretense of being the “fiscally responsible’ party by racking up a $1.5T debt over the next ten years, impacting the lower and middle class the most (including raising taxes for some of them), slashing taxes primarily for the wealthy and super-wealthy, and sweetening the pot to get final approval by throwing suitcases full of money at wavering GOP Senators, the GOP in Congress — and the President — have scored a great “victory.”

It’s true that this will mean fiscal victory for the time being for the GOP Donor class, and for most of those GOP Reps and (particularly) Senators. But I have to believe that this victory — which you will hear our toddler-in-chief crow about on a weekly basis for the rest of his presidency — will be Pyrrhic at best, that it will have profoundly negative political consequences in 2018 and 2020 for the Republican party, and that while no doubt some of the politicians involved will cash out successfully (at the mere cost of their souls), their “brand” has taken a crippling wound that it will take a generation to recover from.

Which doesn’t mean a lot of non-politicians won’t get hurt in the meantime, of course. But in desperation to score a “victory,” any “victory,” the Republicans have ruined themselves.

(As a note about the political hackery involved in this effort, there’s word that Trump won’t sign the bill until January, so that the automatic cuts to Medicare, etc., won’t take place until 2019, after the midterm elections. Can’t have the folk still being allowed to vote feeling too much pain too soon.)




House sends GOP tax bill to Trump’s desk – CNNPolitics
Republicans plan a celebration at the White House with President Donald Trump after their most significant legislative victory of 2017.

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7 thoughts on “The Republican “Victory””

  1. Interesting discussion from the Brookings Institution (admittedly, not exactly "loyal" to Trump) on the effects of the tax initiatives in the 1980s. Perhaps the most important point is that tax cuts are just one of many factors that affect the economy. For example, after the 1981 tax cut, the Fed cut rates. This time around, the Fed is planning to raise rates.

    Another point that resonates with what you said:

    "The 1986 bill was very different than this year’s tax bill. One, it was preceded by a couple of years of ground work by tax experts at the Treasury. Two, it was bipartisan. And, three, it was intended to improve the tax code but to raise just as much money as the then-existing tax code did – no more and no less. And was designed to be “distributionally neutral” – that is, to avoid shifting the tax burden from rich to poor or from poor to rich."
    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2017/12/08/what-we-learned-from-reagans-tax-cuts/

  2. Well another disaster on the horizon…I would have loved if someone asked Donnie if now he was going to bring his and his daughters businesses back to America now?… Of coarse not. They are not going to give up one nickle.. Going to raise minimum wage now? Of coarse not…. why do I hear the words let them eat cake….. followed closely by swooosh thump roll……

  3. +John E. Bredehoft Yup. There were no negotiations. No lengthy plans. No committee meetings. No careful balancing and nuance. Not even a semblance. It was throw some ideas from the Heritage Foundation as a vague base, and then cut taxes for the wealthy, and then figure out how to make up for some of that, and then throw a bunch of other crap in. The process was not even sausage being made (more like sausage post-digestion).

  4. "Sausage post-digestion." Very discreet.

    It makes you wonder what could have been. After all, the man whose name is on the cover of The Art of the Deal would supposedly be better than Reagan in securing bipartisan support. And Trump has even had a meeting or two with Democrats. Granted the 2017 legislative accomplishments would be very different if they were achieved in a bipartisan way, but at least there would be one legislative achievement in 2017 (as you have noted elsewhere, there is a good chance that the tax bill won't be signed until next year).

  5. +John E. Bredehoft Hmm. Is the legislation achieved when the legislature has signed off on it, or when the president has? I'm sure there's something legal about it.

    Or Trump just wants to spread the "winning" across two calendar years, because it makes him smirk.

    Regarding the Art of the Deal:

    1. It's ghost-written, so assume it's puffed up.
    2. It describes a Trump in his prime, not a 71-year-old man of arguably declining faculties.
    3. Examining Trump's deals, it's clear that they ted less about negotiations and win-win propositions, but hardball dictates (or robust flattery) and then screwing the other guy once you have his money.
    4. Trump treats the White House like the executive office of a nationwide corporation. The only dealing he's doing is telling congressional leadership what to do or else face the wrath of his base. They don't care (much) because he'll sign the stuff they send him.

  6. Hopefully the Dems learn from this episode and finally realize that they are always going to be played by the GOP and our useless press to be bipartisan and play by the rules so that if they are ever in power again they can just pass a tax law that undoes all of this stupidity the same way the GOP is currently doing so without any repercussions.

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