{"id":11906,"date":"2008-01-04T06:52:28","date_gmt":"2008-01-04T13:52:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/2008\/01\/04\/well-well-well-2.html"},"modified":"2008-01-04T06:52:28","modified_gmt":"2008-01-04T13:52:28","slug":"well_well_well_2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/01\/04\/well_well_well_2.html","title":{"rendered":"Well, well, well …"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

It’s important not to overanalyze and overhype the results from the Iowa caucuses — a oddball system in a relatively small state — save that the results, because they are <\/em>generally overanalyzed and overhyped, seem to make a difference in the candidate selection process.<\/p>\n

The result of which is a lot of interesting outcomes<\/a> on both sides, as would be expected in a very tightly fought race.<\/p>\n

Twice as many Dems caucused this year as in 2004, and Obama was the clear winner on a lot of levels — most importantly by showing that an African freshman Senator would win a clear plurality of the votes vs. the shiny populism of Edwards or the touted-as-inevitable Clinton.  Clinton’s third<\/em>-place showing is perhaps as big a story, definitely shaking up the previous seeming inevitability of her success. <\/p>\n

On the GOP side, Huckabee’s distinct success over Romney shakes things up a bit there, too. McCain and Thompson, in a virtual dead heat, were back in third place each, but with decent showings.<\/p>\n

For all of that, it’s far too early in the process to make any predictions.  The biggest immediate outcome is the shake-out of candidates — Dodd and Biden have already withdrawn, and it will be tough for anyone not in the top three Democratic slots to continue on, for financial reasons if nothing else.  The GOP side is more mixed, with more opportunities in other states for those still in the running, but I expect to hear of some withdrawals there, pretty soon, too. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Romney and Clinton will both be going into overdrive mode to shore up support in the very different state of New Hampshire.  On the GOP side, Huckabee is far weaker in the polls there than amongst the high evangelical Christian turn-out in Iowa, and Giuliani, McCain, and Romney will all have some advantages.   A win by Obama there, too, would be highly indicative, but even just a respectable showing will be helpful.  That will let things cascade down to the triangle to the third intro primary, in South Carolina, and the other two dozen contests over the next month..<\/p>\n

It’s not over until it’s over, by any means.  But it’s certainly beginning<\/em> in an interesting fashion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s important not to overanalyze and overhype the results from the Iowa caucuses — a oddball system in a relatively small state — save that the results, because they…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections-2008"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":129626,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/01\/for-everyone-squeeing-over-the-iowa-caucuses-for-whatever-reason.html","url_meta":{"origin":11906,"position":0},"title":"For everyone squeeing over the Iowa caucuses (for whatever reason)","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 1-Feb-16 11:28pm","format":false,"excerpt":"They're rubbish. They are an artificial horse race on an abnormal track with strange rules, and the only reason anyone pays attention to them is that the media lurves reporting (breathlessley) on horse races, especially the first one.The only people who the race actually had a concrete impact on were\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/3626269742_03c03f6466_b5B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/3626269742_03c03f6466_b5B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/3626269742_03c03f6466_b5B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25072,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/01\/04\/rick-perry-lost-because-of-vast-democrat-conspiracy.html","url_meta":{"origin":11906,"position":1},"title":"Rick Perry Lost Because of Vast Democrat Conspiracy!","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 4-Jan-12 2:51pm","format":false,"excerpt":"It's true! Iowa Democrats were so utterly terrified of Rick Perry winning the presidential election, that they invaded the GOP caucuses in Iowa and voted for liberals like Romney and Santorum and Paul and Gingrich in such incredible numbers that they drowned out all the True Republicans(TM) who were lined\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5714,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2004\/01\/20\/iowa_ii.html","url_meta":{"origin":11906,"position":2},"title":"Iowa II","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 20-Jan-04 6:25am","format":false,"excerpt":"Now comes the morning after, as pundits proclaim how they knew all along (or how nobody knew) this is how the Iowa caucuses were going to turn out, and how...","rel":"","context":"In "Politics & Law"","block_context":{"text":"Politics & Law","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25064,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/01\/04\/one-crazy-out-of-the-race.html","url_meta":{"origin":11906,"position":3},"title":"One crazy out of the race","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 4-Jan-12 9:44am","format":false,"excerpt":"Bachmann is out (she's \"suspending,\" but that just means she can still raise money to pay off her debt). There are any number of GOP candidates I would be appalled to see actually nominated (let alone win), and Bachmann was at the top of the list, so this is, IMO,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4723,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2004\/01\/19\/iowa.html","url_meta":{"origin":11906,"position":4},"title":"Iowa","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 19-Jan-04 7:39am","format":false,"excerpt":"I am a registered Democrat. I voted for Al Gore in 2000, and was sorry to see him not get elected. That may come as a surprise to some readers,...","rel":"","context":"In "Politics & Law"","block_context":{"text":"Politics & Law","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":129638,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/02\/yes-i-am-so-glad-that-ted-cruz-won-in-iowa-or-not.html","url_meta":{"origin":11906,"position":5},"title":"Yes, I am SO glad that Ted Cruz won in Iowa. Or not","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 2-Feb-16 11:00pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Because clearly Donald Trump doesn't adequately serve the Zany Right wing of Christianity.I suspect I'm going to use this C. S. Lewis quote [http:\/\/wist.info\/lewis-cs\/2455\/] a lot this election season, especially while we're dealing with a Trump v Cruz race:'Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11906","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11906"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11906\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}