{"id":128661,"date":"2015-11-09T13:52:51","date_gmt":"2015-11-09T20:52:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2015\/11\/09\/really-just-ignore-the-presidential-polls-at-this-point.html"},"modified":"2015-11-10T15:33:41","modified_gmt":"2015-11-10T22:33:41","slug":"really-just-ignore-the-presidential-polls-at-this-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2015\/11\/09\/really-just-ignore-the-presidential-polls-at-this-point.html","title":{"rendered":"Really, just ignore the presidential polls at this point"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We&#39;re a year from the actual election. We don&#39;t even know who the candidates are actually going to be (though Clinton seems pretty darned likely). A war, a terrorist attack, a downturn in the economy, an upturn in the economy, a dozen different national crises, personal scandals, or on-stage gaffes could make the numbers swing wildly.<\/p>\n<p>So running polls about who will win in November 2016 is &#8230; well, it&#39;s filler and clickbait. Heck, it&#39;s probably premature to be obsessing over the primary polls in both races, except to take bets on the rises and falls of the various GOP candidates.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"sm2wp\"><p>\n<a style='display:inline;' href='http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls'><br \/>\n<img src='https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/proxy\/734OAB4YSKElLMK1vvum7kTbiJjdqIvwSegP1GObM7sggqZ4QPW6lVfvnoqRia6aI3cQRjRbGA77OYxAogZEigxajRlPP13BTXOqcXgKq2IIiYWmT0IZU76udYm49pTwjh5acMv_ki8=w506-h910' border='0' style='max-width:650px;'\/><br \/>\n<\/a><br \/>\n<span style='font-size:large;'><a href='http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls'>A Year Out, Ignore General Election Polls<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n&ldquo;The Doctor Is In As Carson Ties Trump In GOP Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Carson Tops Clinton By 10 Points In General Election&rdquo; That was the headline on a press release for the&hellip;\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style='font-size:small;'><a href='https:\/\/plus.google.com\/+DaveHill47\/posts\/By5oNYAPyz8'>View on Google+<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#39;re a year from the actual election. We don&#39;t even know who the candidates are actually going to be (though Clinton seems pretty darned likely). A war, a terrorist attack, a downturn in the economy, an upturn in the economy, a dozen different national crises, personal scandals, or on-stage gaffes could make the numbers swing &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2015\/11\/09\/really-just-ignore-the-presidential-polls-at-this-point.html\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Really, just ignore the presidential polls at this point&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106,532],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-128661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts","category-elections-2016"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12934,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/09\/04\/maps_a_plenty.html","url_meta":{"origin":128661,"position":0},"title":"Maps a-plenty","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 4-Sep-08 4:02pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Is it too soon for me to start obsessing over polling and electoral maps? Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Elections 2008&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12764,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/10\/02\/debate_o_rama.html","url_meta":{"origin":128661,"position":1},"title":"Debate-o-Rama!","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 2-Oct-08 1:27pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Regarding tonight's VP debates ... Both candidates are no doubt getting ready for tonight's brouhaha. Word has it that Palin's been hunkered down in her GOP bunker getting intense...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Elections 2008&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12737,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/10\/07\/electoral_college_watch.html","url_meta":{"origin":128661,"position":2},"title":"Electoral College Watch","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 7-Oct-08 2:41pm","format":false,"excerpt":"It hasn't been quite a week since the last\u00a0time, \u00a0but since we're heading into a debate tonight (note to self: DVR!), here's where the candidates know they stand: Site Obama...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Elections 2008&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24989,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/01\/01\/the-cost-of-moving-out-to-the-fringe.html","url_meta":{"origin":128661,"position":3},"title":"The cost of moving out to the fringe","author":"***Dave","date":"Sun 1-Jan-12 10:47am","format":false,"excerpt":"Some interesting polling about Rick Perry that leads to an observation I hadn't considered. Since beginning to fall in the polls from front-runner, Perry's response has been to appeal to the fringe-base-arch-conservative wing of the GOP -- attacking on a variety of \"culture war\" issues, trying to gin up some\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;~PlusPosts&quot;","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24853,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2011\/12\/26\/vox-populi.html","url_meta":{"origin":128661,"position":4},"title":"Vox populi","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 26-Dec-11 10:59am","format":false,"excerpt":"But we'll still keep hearing the GOP arguing that \"the people\" don't want any increase in taxes. Wonder which \"people\" they're talking about.Bear in mind, I'm not particularly enthusiastic about paying more in taxes. But the question that always has to come up in conjunction is for what. To help\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;~PlusPosts&quot;","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":133872,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2017\/07\/17\/the-alabama-senate-race-seems-to-be-about-who-is-trumpier-than-thou.html","url_meta":{"origin":128661,"position":5},"title":"The Alabama Senate race seems to be about Who Is Trumpier-than-Thou","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 17-Jul-17 11:14am","format":false,"excerpt":"The race among the GOP (since apparently nobody votes Democratic in Alabama) to fill Jeff Sessions' seat is apparently turning into a race as to Who Is The Biggest Trump Fan, who can invoke God more often, and who loves guns possibly even more than they love Donald Trump.It would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;~PlusPosts&quot;","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=128661"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128661\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":128692,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128661\/revisions\/128692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=128661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=128661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=128661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}