{"id":12909,"date":"2008-09-09T14:00:09","date_gmt":"2008-09-09T21:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/2008\/09\/09\/poll-position-3.html"},"modified":"2008-09-09T14:00:09","modified_gmt":"2008-09-09T21:00:09","slug":"poll_position_3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/09\/09\/poll_position_3.html","title":{"rendered":"Poll position"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This is a hard post for me to write, because, rational or not, I keep expecting Disaster to Strike, and Defeat to be Seized the Teeth of Victory &#8212; whether by GOP chicanery, Democratic self-destructive ineptitude, or the fearsome idiocy of the populace. If I talk about Obama being ahead in the election, my personal political karma will single-handedly send his campaign down in flames.<\/p>\n<p>But for all the screaming and yelling and wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst the Democrats in the past few days, as the expected McCain post-nomination poll bump ran its course, one thing hasn&#8217;t really changed all that much: the expected electoral college vote. And that&#8217;s a heck of a lot more lopsided in Obama&#8217;s favor right now than the polls indicate.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.electoral-vote.com\/evp2008\/Pres\/Maps\/Sep09.html\" target=\"_blank\">Electoral-vote.com<\/a>: Obama 281, McCain 230, Ties 27<\/li>\n<li> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.electionprojection.com\/index.shtml\" target=\"_blank\">ElectionProjection.com<\/a>: Obama 278, McCain 260<\/li>\n<li> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight.com<\/a>: Obama 293, McCain 245<\/li>\n<li> <a href=\"http:\/\/pollster.com\" target=\"_blank\">Pollster.com<\/a>: Obama 243, McCain 179, Toss-up 116<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Obviously a bit of variety there, depending on how the close states are being tallied &#8212; but it remains good news on the Obama side of things, bounce or not. As noted <a href=\"http:\/\/commentsfromleftfield.com\/2008\/09\/the-general-electionprimary-connection\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>, where the bounce has occurred for McCain, it was mostly in the red states, which he already had. That gets him poll numbers but not necessarily much in the way of added electoral votes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>That all said, it&#8217;s two months to the election. The margin is not insurmountable for McCain. Plenty of time for lots of movement in the voting, so neither side should be complaisant &#8230; nor should anyone, especially the Dems, be despairing. Yet.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is a hard post for me to write, because, rational or not, I keep expecting Disaster to Strike, and Defeat to be Seized the Teeth of Victory &#8212; whether&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections-2008"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":13614,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/11\/04\/mccain_510_electoral_vote.html","url_meta":{"origin":12909,"position":0},"title":"McCain 510 Electoral Votes, Obama 28","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 4-Nov-08 11:11am","format":false,"excerpt":"Those were the results when, two years ago, SurveyUSA polled 600 voters in each state, asking for their vote in a 2008 election between McCain and Obama. In that poll,...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Elections 2008&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12832,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/09\/19\/poll_positions_2.html","url_meta":{"origin":12909,"position":1},"title":"Poll positions","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 19-Sep-08 7:54pm","format":false,"excerpt":"I've been staying away from the polls for a bit, given the lag effect of the RNC. Things are supposedly trending back \"good,\" but remain tight. ElectionProjection.com: Obama 273, McCain...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Elections 2008&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":130923,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/06\/19\/polls-tax-my-nerves.html","url_meta":{"origin":12909,"position":2},"title":"Polls Tax My Nerves","author":"***Dave","date":"Sun 19-Jun-16 2:12pm","format":false,"excerpt":"This past week I have read stories touting how Trump in Polling Death Spiral and Clinton Lead Over Trump Slips After Shooting and Trump Orlando Response Loses Poll Support and ...Folk. It's mid-June. The conventions have not occurred. The serious ad spends have not started. The \"October Surprise\"(s) are still\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;~PlusPosts&quot;","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/deweywins5B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/deweywins5B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/deweywins5B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12737,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/10\/07\/electoral_college_watch.html","url_meta":{"origin":12909,"position":3},"title":"Electoral College Watch","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 7-Oct-08 2:41pm","format":false,"excerpt":"It hasn't been quite a week since the last\u00a0time, \u00a0but since we're heading into a debate tonight (note to self: DVR!), here's where the candidates know they stand: Site Obama...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Elections 2008&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13712,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/10\/14\/electoral_college_watch_6.html","url_meta":{"origin":12909,"position":4},"title":"Electoral College Watch","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 14-Oct-08 12:15pm","format":false,"excerpt":"A week later, here we are (+ means an increase, * means unchanged, - means a decrease): Site Obama McCain Toss-Up ElectionProjection.com\u00a0 369 + 169 - Electoral-vote.com 357 + 181...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Elections 2008&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12768,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/10\/01\/electoral_college_watch_2.html","url_meta":{"origin":12909,"position":5},"title":"Electoral College Watch","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 1-Oct-08 8:44pm","format":false,"excerpt":"It's been a couple of weeks since I've reported on the current electoral college predictions, waiting first for the debate, then for the bailout bit to finally percolate into the...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Elections 2008&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12909\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}