{"id":129883,"date":"2016-02-21T07:03:47","date_gmt":"2016-02-21T07:03:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/21\/the-non-party-folk-in-the-two-party-system.html"},"modified":"2016-02-21T07:03:47","modified_gmt":"2016-02-21T07:03:47","slug":"the-non-party-folk-in-the-two-party-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/21\/the-non-party-folk-in-the-two-party-system.html","title":{"rendered":"The non-party folk in the two-party system"},"content":{"rendered":"

Exit polls have their own problems, but if this one's results are accurate, they are pretty interesting. This is (for reasons rational and irrational) the year of the party outsider, the populist, the rage against the political machine.<\/p>\n

If we end up with a Trump vs Clinton general election, it will not be merely a difference between the candidates, but between the factions of the electorate. In this scenario, the Trump candidacy will include the non-establishment outsiders on the Right (a Cruz candidacy would have some of the same characteristics), while the Clinton candidacy would be firmly within the Democratic establishment. The issue, from the Left, will be whether the Sanders fringe — centrist and\/or further-Leftist (and to the extent that we can posit a single ideological axis in party politics) will vote for a compromise candidate (Clinton) or stay home (which represents a vote for Trump).<\/p>\n

Yeah, a lot of commas and parentheses in that paragraph, but it's a complicated situation. If Clinton gets the nomination but the Sanders folk stay home on election day, she will lose — and we'll end up with Trump, or Cruz, or possibly Rubio. Folk in that situation will need to decide if they are more dedicated to their ideal than to the result.<\/p>\n

Conversely, if Trump (or Cruz) gets in, the reaction of the GOP establishment will be a significant factor. If they push for their candidate, they will quite possibly win the election, but lose the ideological war. If they hold back, they may live to fight another day, but will concede the election to whomever they face. <\/p>\n

Both party establishments face some difficult, but different, decisions this year.<\/p>\n

Originally shared by +John Wehrle<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

This is a screenshot of one exit poll question of the NV caucus by NBC. The rest are at the link below. I wanted to show just this one because I think it is important for understanding some of this season's dynamics.<\/p>\n

Regardless of your candidate preferences, it might behoove us all to notice what "Democratic Establishment" actually means. It turns out that, in general, there are differences between people who hold their noses while voting for Democrats, and, people who proudly proclaim that they are Democrats. The differences are not black and white. Senator Sanders has a lot<\/i> of support among proud Democrats – though according to this exit poll Secretary Clinton has a nearly 20 point lead among them.<\/p>\n

What's really interesting is how popular Senator Sanders is among those in the NV Caucus who don't<\/i> think of themselves as Democrats.<\/p>\n

There's something unreported and unremarked upon going on here.<\/p>\n

But if you've been wondering why your liberal friends support one candidate while you support the other, this graph may help explain it.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2016-election\/primaries\/NV<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/a><\/div>\n
\n<\/a>\u00a0\n<\/div>\n

View on Google+<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Exit polls have their own problems, but if this one's results are accurate, they are pretty interesting. This is (for reasons rational and irrational) the year of the party outsider, the populist, the rage against the political machine. If we end up with a Trump vs Clinton general election, it will not be merely a … Continue reading “The non-party folk in the two-party system”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":129884,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-129883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-plusposts"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/NevadaExitPoll.pngimgmax=660.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":131833,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/10\/19\/thoughts-on-the-third-presidential-debate.html","url_meta":{"origin":129883,"position":0},"title":"Thoughts on the Third Presidential Debate","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 19-Oct-16 9:06pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Trump was talking all over the freaking map, again, like a rhetorical pachinko machine. It was impossible to follow him, let alone summarize what he was saying. He couldn't put two sentences in a row that were sequential in meaning. Got lots of buzz words out, though. Is that effective?\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/tdy_alexander_debate_160926.nbcnews-ux-1080-6005B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/tdy_alexander_debate_160926.nbcnews-ux-1080-6005B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/tdy_alexander_debate_160926.nbcnews-ux-1080-6005B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":131497,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/09\/11\/yes-deplorable.html","url_meta":{"origin":129883,"position":1},"title":"Yes, "deplorable"","author":"***Dave","date":"Sun 11-Sep-16 12:44am","format":false,"excerpt":"Apparently those folk who are vehement that political correctness is destroying our country are now frothing over Clinton's generalization that half of Trump's supporters hold deplorable beliefs and prejudices.Golly.'One way of reporting on Clinton\u2019s statement is to weigh its political cost, ask what it means for her campaign, or attempt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":131456,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/09\/08\/get-ready-for-the-anti-feminist-backlash-if-clinton-wins.html","url_meta":{"origin":129883,"position":2},"title":"Get ready for the anti-feminist backlash if Clinton wins","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 8-Sep-16 1:38pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Given how much racism came out of the closet after Obama's election, the analysis and psychology here is hardly surprising. And, in some twisted way, it makes sense -- racism per se had become increasingly delegitimized over the years, but once a black man became a legitimate political target, it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":130839,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/06\/09\/never-count-on-the-democrats-not-blowing-an-election.html","url_meta":{"origin":129883,"position":3},"title":"Never count on the Democrats NOT blowing an election","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 9-Jun-16 10:25pm","format":false,"excerpt":"While I have been generally in support of Clinton as the Democratic nominee, for a variety of mostly pragmatic reasons, if the Democratic establishment thinks her nomination means they can blow off the sizable chunk of pro-Sanders \/ anti-establishment voters who kept Clinton's efforts from being a casual saunter to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":132066,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/11\/18\/the-third-party-president.html","url_meta":{"origin":129883,"position":4},"title":"The Third Party President","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 18-Nov-16 7:13pm","format":false,"excerpt":"The interesting thing about this interview with Steve Bannon -- aside from his self-identification with forces of \"darkness\" like Dick Cheney, Darth Vader, and Satan -- is his perception of Trump's victory not as a GOP win, but as a win against the establishment of both the GOP and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":131998,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/11\/09\/whos-responsible-for-trump-winning.html","url_meta":{"origin":129883,"position":5},"title":"Who's responsible for Trump winning?","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 9-Nov-16 11:49pm","format":false,"excerpt":"That's about 50% of what I've been reading today (the other 50% has been mourning \/ panicking \/ raging stuff). The trick here is that there is (like in most things in Real Life) no easy, simple, finger-pointable-at factor, but a load of things that led to the result. Lots\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=129883"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129883\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/129884"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=129883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=129883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=129883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}