{"id":129890,"date":"2016-02-22T07:02:17","date_gmt":"2016-02-22T14:02:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/22\/whos-voting-for-whom.html"},"modified":"2016-02-22T07:02:17","modified_gmt":"2016-02-22T14:02:17","slug":"whos-voting-for-whom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/22\/whos-voting-for-whom.html","title":{"rendered":"Who's voting for whom?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Exit polls have serious limitations, but this one held to look at who was voting for whom in the GOP South Caroline primaries has some interesting trends. Trump was broadly the winner, not just among a few cohorts, but Rubio came out as the choice for those opposing Trump, leaving Cruz in the middle except amongst the most conservative voters.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/graphics\/politics\/2016-election\/primaries\/south-carolina-exit-poll\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Trump's win was broad, but not deep. He succeeded in most of the demographics tested, but not always by much, and usually never more than a plurality.<\/p>\n

Cruz narrowly beat Trump in the Age 17-29 cohort. Cruz was behind Rubio in the 65+ age cohort (which seems a bit odd).<\/p>\n

There is a huge curve in education — Trump had nearly a majority among those only graduating High School or less, or having taken some college. It narrowed among college graduates, and Rubio actually won heavily among those who had taken some postgraduate work.<\/p>\n

Trump won both among Born-Again Christians and those not identifying so — but Cruz was last on non-Born-Agains, distinctly behind Rubio.<\/p>\n

Cruz' big triumph was among the Very Conservative; conversely, among Somewhat Conservative or Moderate he was dead last among the three.<\/p>\n

Trump was last among those who had decided on a candidate in the last week; he was by far the strongest among people who had decided some time back. That's not a comforting stat for him.<\/p>\n

For those who value most someone who can bring about change, and even more so someone who "tells it like it is," Trump was the serious champion. Cruz won among those looking for someone who shared their values. Rubio won big among those who were looking for someone who could win in November.<\/p>\n

Trump was also a big winner with those who were most focused on Immigration on a topic. For folk looking to deport illegal immigrants, he was the clear choice; for those wanting some path to legal status, Rubio was the winner. Trump was also the winner for those supporting a ban on Muslims entering the US; for the rest, Rubio had an edge.<\/p>\n

Trump was also a winner, though less so for those most focused on the economy and jobs. Among these latter, again, he had the most strength the more worried about the economy people were.<\/p>\n

Where candidates are prioritized based on government experience, Rubio wins; where government experience is seen as a liability, it's Trump.<\/p>\n

For people angry with government, Trump was also the top pick; as that anger drops down, it becomes an even race.<\/p>\n

So the main conclusion is hardly controversial: Trump draws his support from angry, less educated voters wanting someone from the outside, a change agent, particular those who are worried about the economy and immigration. But, to some degree, he is coasting on early impressions and decisions about whom to back.<\/p>\n

Between the other two, surprisingly, Rubio appears to be the stronger candidate; where there are distinct differences, Rubio is picking up the more educated, more moderate vote, primarily those who disagree with Trump or are looking for someone who can win in November.<\/p>\n

Cruz suffers from being neither fish nor fowl; strongest by far among the most conservative, too much of his support in general is going to either Trump or (against Trump) to Rubio. <\/p>\n

But it's still a tight enough horse race that I wouldn't care to bet on it, except that a lot depends on whose money holds out longest.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n
\n
\n<\/a>
\nSouth Carolina Republican exit poll results<\/a><\/span>
\nSee the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate according to a statewide survey of Republican South Carolina voters as they exited Saturday’s primary.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

View on Google+<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Exit polls have serious limitations, but this one held to look at who was voting for whom in the GOP South Caroline primaries has some interesting trends. Trump was broadly the winner, not just among a few cohorts, but Rubio came out as the choice for those opposing Trump, leaving Cruz in the middle except … Continue reading “Who's voting for whom?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-129890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":129883,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/21\/the-non-party-folk-in-the-two-party-system.html","url_meta":{"origin":129890,"position":0},"title":"The non-party folk in the two-party system","author":"***Dave","date":"Sun 21-Feb-16 7:03am","format":false,"excerpt":"Exit polls have their own problems, but if this one's results are accurate, they are pretty interesting. This is (for reasons rational and irrational) the year of the party outsider, the populist, the rage against the political machine.If we end up with a Trump vs Clinton general election, it will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/NevadaExitPoll.pngimgmax%3D660.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/NevadaExitPoll.pngimgmax%3D660.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/NevadaExitPoll.pngimgmax%3D660.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":130206,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/03\/16\/and-thats-a-wrap-for-marco-rubio.html","url_meta":{"origin":129890,"position":1},"title":"And that's a wrap for Marco Rubio","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 16-Mar-16 12:35am","format":false,"excerpt":"The early hope of the anyone-mainstream-but-Bush, and then the desperate hope of the anyone-anyone-except-Trump(-and-Cruz), Rubio couldn't even hold his home state against the Donald. I have no regrets seeing him go, save that it marginally increases Ted Cruz' passing odds against Donald Trump.The man's awfully young to be a has-been;\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":129650,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/05\/marco-rubio-the-establishment-candidate.html","url_meta":{"origin":129890,"position":2},"title":"Marco Rubio, the Establishment Candidate","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 5-Feb-16 6:05pm","format":false,"excerpt":"The GOP Establishment has two problems:- One of the two top polling candidates for president is a narcissistic populist money-bags who owes nothing to the GOP Establishment and is seen as a likely huge fail in the general election, even if through some miracle he gets the nomination. (Iowa, polls\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":130005,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/03\/01\/the-gop-asks-for-help-in-saving-itself-2.html","url_meta":{"origin":129890,"position":3},"title":"The GOP asks for help in saving itself","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 1-Mar-16 5:39pm","format":false,"excerpt":"But ... wouldn't that create a cycle of dependency, a moral hazard of bailouts and assistance that only encourages electoral moochers and political \"takers\"?Specifically, it appears some conservatives are asking Democrats to vote in open primary states for Marco Rubio, so as to help Fight Back the Trump and save\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":130785,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/06\/02\/david-barton-is-a-dolt-judges-trump-presidency-edition.html","url_meta":{"origin":129890,"position":4},"title":"David Barton is a dolt (Judges Trump Presidency edition)","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 2-Jun-16 3:27pm","format":false,"excerpt":"All you need to know about David Barton -- aside from his tendency to make up historical \"facts\" -- is that he considers voting for Donald Trump to be an obligation for all true Christians, because the Bible Says So.http:\/\/www.rightwingwatch.org\/content\/david-barton-voting-biblically-voting-donald-trump-name-supreme-court-justicesOf course, Barton is also on record saying that the Bible\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/barton-principles-701x3595B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/barton-principles-701x3595B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/barton-principles-701x3595B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25323,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/01\/12\/ron-paul-and-the-gop-youth-vote.html","url_meta":{"origin":129890,"position":5},"title":"Ron Paul and the GOP youth vote","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 12-Jan-12 11:15am","format":false,"excerpt":"Paul reeled in almost half of the 18-29 age cohort in the New Hampshire GOP primaries. He apparently scored very well with younger participants in Iowa, too. In a GOP desperate to attract young voters (the mean age of registered Republicans is climbing faster than the mean age of Americans\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=129890"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129890\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=129890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=129890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=129890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}