{"id":129998,"date":"2016-03-02T00:11:42","date_gmt":"2016-03-02T07:11:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/03\/02\/primary-wins-losses-and-in-betweens-9.html"},"modified":"2016-03-02T00:11:42","modified_gmt":"2016-03-02T07:11:42","slug":"primary-wins-losses-and-in-betweens-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/03\/02\/primary-wins-losses-and-in-betweens-9.html","title":{"rendered":"Primary Wins, Losses, and In-Betweens"},"content":{"rendered":"

While I am not quite as given-up on our "Useless Media" as some, the Super Tuesday coverage was driving both +<\/span>Margie Kleerup<\/a><\/span> and me mad.<\/p>\n

(1) "Winning" a state doesn't mean what you think it means, Big Network Coverage Talking Heads; we don't have winner-take-all selections as in most general presidential elections. States all have zany delegate distrubution mechanisms, each subtly different, along the lines of "Candidates scoring over X% will get a proportional number of delegates in that district, and, on a statewide basis, from the at-large delegates, but candidates scoring over 50% in a district will get all of the delegates, unless it's dark on Tuesday." Throw in the Super-Delegates, and the bottom line is that a state that Candidate Y may only mean that Y got 60% of the delegates and Candidate Z got 40%. <\/p>\n

That's cool for Candidate Y, but it's not an out-and-out "win." Candidate Z is still going to get delegates out of the deal.<\/p>\n

(2) There are multiple GOP candidates in the race. "Winning" a state for them generally doesn't mean a majority<\/i> vote, but a plurality<\/i> vote. If Trump gets 39%, Rubio 37%, and Cruz 15%, Trump "won," but he still had less than half the votes in the state, which means he didn't win, he just loss less badly than the others. And, per (1), he'll still get only a fraction of the delegates.<\/p>\n

It's this last point that the GOP leadership are counting on as a way to keep Trump under the magic number needed to win on the first ballot at the convention in Cleveland. If they can do that, then those delegates are released to vote on their on, which means (they think) the delegates will then vote for a candidate the GOP leadership approve of.<\/p>\n

Yeah, we'll see how that works out.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n
\n
\n<\/a>
\nSuper Tuesday results: Clinton, Trump win big; Cruz takes Texas<\/a><\/span>
\nDonald Trump and Hillary Clinton carved out dominant positions in their party nominating races on Super Tuesday, marching ever closer to a scorched-earth general election clash.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

View on Google+<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While I am not quite as given-up on our "Useless Media" as some, the Super Tuesday coverage was driving both +Margie Kleerup and me mad. (1) "Winning" a state doesn't mean what you think it means, Big Network Coverage Talking Heads; we don't have winner-take-all selections as in most general presidential elections. States all have … Continue reading “Primary Wins, Losses, and In-Betweens”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-129998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":129861,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/17\/suddenly-a-political-convention-might-actually-mean-something-again.html","url_meta":{"origin":129998,"position":0},"title":"Suddenly, a political convention might actually mean something again","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 17-Feb-16 2:18pm","format":false,"excerpt":"It's still to early to bet on how the rest of the GOP primary season will go, but the major campaigns (and major SuperPACs) are all figuring out how things might go if the first balloting in Cleveland doesn't deliver a majority for any one candidate. 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