{"id":130004,"date":"2016-03-01T17:51:22","date_gmt":"2016-03-01T17:51:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/03\/01\/nate-silver-on-the-chance-of-a-trump-election-8.html"},"modified":"2016-03-01T17:51:22","modified_gmt":"2016-03-01T17:51:22","slug":"nate-silver-on-the-chance-of-a-trump-election-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/03\/01\/nate-silver-on-the-chance-of-a-trump-election-8.html","title":{"rendered":"Nate Silver on the chance of a Trump election"},"content":{"rendered":"

Executive Summary: Things are screwy right now, who who the hell knows?<\/i><\/p>\n

And he's right, for a variety of correct reasons. Things will triangulate further as primary season progresses, as the convention and nomination actually happen, as the Dems make their nomination (and the fall-out from that), and as the general election draws near. Gaffes and scandals and other bits will play their roles, too.<\/p>\n

It's also probably too soon to assume this is a major political realignment going this year (as Silver also points out), though we're due for one. Such things tend to be opaque when you are in the middle of them. But it's certainly a possibility, and, if so, how it will shake out (on both sides of the aisle) will make for interesting (in the Chinese Curse sense) politics for decades to come.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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\n
\n<\/a>
\nDon’t Assume Conservatives Will Rally Behind Trump<\/a><\/span>
\nIf Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination, he’ll have undermined a lot of assumptions we once held about the GOP. He’ll have become the nominee despite neither being reliably cons…\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

View on Google+<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Executive Summary: Things are screwy right now, who who the hell knows? And he's right, for a variety of correct reasons. Things will triangulate further as primary season progresses, as the convention and nomination actually happen, as the Dems make their nomination (and the fall-out from that), and as the general election draws near. Gaffes … Continue reading “Nate Silver on the chance of a Trump election”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-130004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":129849,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/15\/playing-politics-with-a-supreme-court-nomination-democratic-edition.html","url_meta":{"origin":130004,"position":0},"title":"Playing politics with a Supreme Court nomination (Democratic Edition)","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 15-Feb-16 2:38pm","format":false,"excerpt":"So clearly the GOP is playing naked politics (ew) with the question of replacing the late Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. The obvious (and right) thing for the President to do is to nominate an excellent candidate, one that he sees as a real legacy, \"shame the devil,\" and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/p_30stk_supreme_court_1406125B15D.JPGimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/p_30stk_supreme_court_1406125B15D.JPGimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/p_30stk_supreme_court_1406125B15D.JPGimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":132805,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2017\/02\/08\/and-merrick-garland-returns-to-work.html","url_meta":{"origin":130004,"position":1},"title":"And Merrick Garland returns to work","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 8-Feb-17 2:36pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Garland has been sitting out hearing cases since he was contacted by the Obama Administration about being a nominee for SCOTUS, as is traditional (to reduce potentially having to recuse himself from a case he himself heard). A year later, his nomination never acted upon by a GOP-dominated Senate that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":130737,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/05\/23\/just-lie-back-close-your-eyes-and-think-of-reagan.html","url_meta":{"origin":130004,"position":2},"title":""Just lie back, close your eyes, and think of Reagan"","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 23-May-16 9:49pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) was one of the most vehement and outspoken opponents of Donald Trump during the primary season, even after he dropped out of the nomination fight.\u201cHe\u2019s a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot.\u201d\u201cHe doesn\u2019t represent my party. He doesn\u2019t represent the values that the men and women who wear\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":129784,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/09\/reality-check-2016-election-edition.html","url_meta":{"origin":130004,"position":3},"title":"Reality Check (2016 Election Edition)","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 9-Feb-16 10:18pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Yes, the media was \u00fcber-hyping the Iowa caucuses. First actual votingish thing in the nation for this election!Following that event, all eyes were on New Hampshire. First actual primary in the nation!The problem is ... neither Iowa nor New Hampshire are particularly representative of the Democrats, Republicans, or general electorate.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/Sabato-25B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":14924,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2009\/06\/01\/alas-not-even-rush-is-willing-to-listen-to-rush.html","url_meta":{"origin":130004,"position":4},"title":"Alas, not even Rush is willing to listen to Rush","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 1-Jun-09 12:24pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Cast your memory back four years, back past Rush leading the personal charge (with personal charges)\u00a0against SCOTUS nominee Sonia Sotomayor, back to 2005 and an earlier SCOTUS nomination battle (emphasis mine) ... I'm tired of these Democrats acting like they won the election. Somebody needs to stand up and say,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fourth Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Fourth Estate","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/media\/fourth-estate"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":129455,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/01\/11\/the-holy-war-on-bumper-stickers.html","url_meta":{"origin":130004,"position":5},"title":"The Holy War on Bumper Stickers","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 11-Jan-16 6:52am","format":false,"excerpt":"Please remember that Michele Bachmann was a GOP member of the House of Representatives (including being a member of the House Intelligence Committee), and considered viable as a candidate for the GOP nomination back in 2012 (winning the Ames straw poll). She was a founder of the House Tea Party\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Holy%2BWar%2Bon%2BBumper%2BStickers.JPGimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Holy%2BWar%2Bon%2BBumper%2BStickers.JPGimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Holy%2BWar%2Bon%2BBumper%2BStickers.JPGimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=130004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130004\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=130004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=130004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=130004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}