{"id":131999,"date":"2016-11-10T08:05:42","date_gmt":"2016-11-10T15:05:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/11\/10\/little-differences-can-make-all-the-difference.html"},"modified":"2016-11-10T08:05:42","modified_gmt":"2016-11-10T15:05:42","slug":"little-differences-can-make-all-the-difference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/11\/10\/little-differences-can-make-all-the-difference.html","title":{"rendered":"Little differences can make all the difference"},"content":{"rendered":"

If just 1 out of every 100 Trump voters had vote instead for Clinton, we'd have a different president, and a completely different set of "lessons" we'd be taking from this election. Which just goes to show (a) how a few people, in aggregate, can actually swing an election, (b) how this is no more fundamentally a "Trump Nation" than, had the contrafactual happened, we would fundamentally have a "Clinton Nation," and (c) how fragile all those "lessons" being drawn actually are, no matter how firmly and confidently they are asserted.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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\nWhat A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes<\/a><\/span>
\nHere’s the Electoral College map we’re going to end up with, assuming that every uncalled state goes to the candidate leading in the vote count there as of 4 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. There’s…\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

View on Google+<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If just 1 out of every 100 Trump voters had vote instead for Clinton, we'd have a different president, and a completely different set of "lessons" we'd be taking from this election. Which just goes to show (a) how a few people, in aggregate, can actually swing an election, (b) how this is no more … Continue reading “Little differences can make all the difference”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-131999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":131621,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/09\/25\/the-new-york-times-endorses-clinton.html","url_meta":{"origin":131999,"position":0},"title":"The New York Times endorses Clinton","author":"***Dave","date":"Sun 25-Sep-16 11:07pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Which is probably not much of a shock, to be sure.http:\/\/nyti.ms\/2cLiyzi'In any normal election year, we\u2019d compare the two presidential candidates side by side on the issues. But this is not a normal election year. A comparison like that would be an empty exercise in a race where one candidate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Clinton%2BNYT.JPGimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Clinton%2BNYT.JPGimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Clinton%2BNYT.JPGimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":131447,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/09\/07\/the-conservative-dallas-morning-news-endorses-clinton.html","url_meta":{"origin":131999,"position":1},"title":"The conservative Dallas Morning News endorses Clinton","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 7-Sep-16 3:13pm","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dallas Morning News is hardly some liberal rag. It has supported every GOP candidate since 1968, and hasn't endorse a Democrat since before WWII. But its editorial board are endorsing Clinton this year.'There is only one serious candidate on the presidential ballot in November. We recommend Hillary Clinton. [...]\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":130839,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/06\/09\/never-count-on-the-democrats-not-blowing-an-election.html","url_meta":{"origin":131999,"position":2},"title":"Never count on the Democrats NOT blowing an election","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 9-Jun-16 10:25pm","format":false,"excerpt":"While I have been generally in support of Clinton as the Democratic nominee, for a variety of mostly pragmatic reasons, if the Democratic establishment thinks her nomination means they can blow off the sizable chunk of pro-Sanders \/ anti-establishment voters who kept Clinton's efforts from being a casual saunter to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":131315,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/08\/19\/voting-negative.html","url_meta":{"origin":131999,"position":3},"title":"Voting Negative","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 19-Aug-16 9:17pm","format":false,"excerpt":"A new Pew survey has some interesting confirmation of what a lot of folk have suspected about this presidential election.http:\/\/www.people-press.org\/2016\/08\/18\/1-voters-general-election-preferences\/#more-negative-voting-than-in-08To wit, a lot more people are voting negatively this election -- voting against someone they dislike -- than in the past. That's not surprising, given the low popularity of both\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/2016%2Bnegative%2Bvoting.pngimgmax%3D660.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/2016%2Bnegative%2Bvoting.pngimgmax%3D660.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/2016%2Bnegative%2Bvoting.pngimgmax%3D660.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":131835,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/10\/19\/the-return-of-the-son-of-the-clintontrump-debate-part-3.html","url_meta":{"origin":131999,"position":4},"title":"The Return of the Son of the Clinton\/Trump Debate, Part 3!","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 19-Oct-16 8:52pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Liveblogged (though posted afterward).Expectations? I expect Trump to come out swinging. Some of those swings will hit. Some will hit himself. Which will do more damage?It's unlikely he can do anything to turn around this election, but he might salvage some down-ballot races. Right now the Dems have a 75%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/AR-1610096775B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/AR-1610096775B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/AR-1610096775B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":131998,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/11\/09\/whos-responsible-for-trump-winning.html","url_meta":{"origin":131999,"position":5},"title":"Who's responsible for Trump winning?","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 9-Nov-16 11:49pm","format":false,"excerpt":"That's about 50% of what I've been reading today (the other 50% has been mourning \/ panicking \/ raging stuff). The trick here is that there is (like in most things in Real Life) no easy, simple, finger-pointable-at factor, but a load of things that led to the result. Lots\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=131999"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131999\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=131999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=131999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=131999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}