{"id":13634,"date":"2008-11-03T07:06:20","date_gmt":"2008-11-03T14:06:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/2008\/11\/03\/electoral-college-watch-3.html"},"modified":"2008-11-03T07:06:20","modified_gmt":"2008-11-03T14:06:20","slug":"electoral_college_watch_3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/11\/03\/electoral_college_watch_3.html","title":{"rendered":"Electoral College Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/10\/28\/electoral_college_watch_3.html\" target=\"_blank\">A week later<\/a>&nbsp;(and a&nbsp;day before The Big Day), here we are at long last. This will be the last one of these I do, except as a retrospective with the &#8220;final&#8221; numbers. Here&#8217;s hoping it&#8217;s not an open-mouthed &#8220;where did everyone go wrong?&#8221; post.<\/p>\n<p>(+ means an increase, * means unchanged, &#8211; means a decrease)<\/p>\n<table border=\"1\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td> <u>Site<\/u><\/td>\n<td> <u>Obama<\/u><\/td>\n<td> <u>McCain<\/u><\/td>\n<td> <u>Toss-Up<\/u><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.electionprojection.com\/index.shtml\" target=\"_blank\">ElectionProjection.com<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> <strong>353&nbsp;<\/strong>&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 185&nbsp;+<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.electoral-vote.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Electoral-vote.com<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> <strong>353&nbsp;<\/strong>&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 185&nbsp;+<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 0 &#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight.com<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> <strong>340&nbsp;<\/strong>&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 198&nbsp;+<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/pollster.com\" target=\"_blank\">Pollster.com<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> <strong>311<\/strong>&nbsp;+<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 142&nbsp;*<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 85&nbsp;&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.270towin.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">270ToWin.com<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> <strong>286&nbsp;<\/strong>+<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 157&nbsp;&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 95&nbsp;+<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.davidwissing.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Hedgehog Report<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> <strong>353<\/strong>&nbsp;&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 185&nbsp;+<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/3bluedudes.com\/ProjectDatabase.htm\" target=\"_blank\">3 Blue Dudes<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> <strong>311<\/strong>&nbsp;+<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 157&nbsp;&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 70&nbsp;&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/colleyrankings.com\/election2008\/\" target=\"_blank\">Electoral Scoreboard<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> <strong>367<\/strong>&nbsp;*<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 171&nbsp;*<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\">\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p> &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Obama maintains his significant (if electoral-magnified) lead and lock in all the polls and results. Several sites have shown that number dropping; a few have showed it increasing (mostly at the expense of toss-ups). None of the sites &#8212; left-or-right-leaning &#8212; sees McCain winning the EC.<\/p>\n<p>Over&nbsp;in the other races, here&#8217;s how things are looking (the top number is the current split; the +\/*\/- refers to the Democrat numbers):<\/p>\n<table border=\"1\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td> <u>Site<\/u><\/td>\n<td>\n<p><u>Senate<br \/> (49-49)<\/u>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td> <u>House<br \/> (233-199)<\/u><\/td>\n<td> <u>Govs<br \/> (28-22)<\/u><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.electionprojection.com\/index.shtml\" target=\"_blank\">ElectionProjection.com<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 57-41 *<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 260-175&nbsp;+<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td> 29-21 +<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.electoral-vote.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Electoral-vote.com<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 58-42&nbsp;&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 249-184 &#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight.com<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 57-41 *<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/pollster.com\" target=\"_blank\">Pollster.com<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 55-39&nbsp;&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 245-166&nbsp;&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 27-21 *<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.3bluedudes.com\/SenPoll.htm\" target=\"_blank\">3 Blue Dudes<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 56-39 +<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td> <a href=\"http:\/\/colleyrankings.com\/election2008\/\" target=\"_blank\">Electoral Scoreboard<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> 53-39 *<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\"> &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p align=\"right\">\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p> &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Numbers here have gotten pretty stable. The Dems will be close to, but certainly not at or over a filibuster-proof Senate. It will be interesting to see how that plays out, as it means that only a few Senators crossing the aisle can make stuff happen if it is worth their while or if they believe strongly in it. It does mean that a disciplined GOP can, if they are willing to, block pretty much anything the Dems put forward. Will that make for a restraint on excess, or a gridlock that belies the Obama narrative of change and reconciliation?<\/p>\n<p>Looks like we&#8217;ll get a chance to see.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A week later&nbsp;(and a&nbsp;day before The Big Day), here we are at long last. This will be the last one of these I do, except as a retrospective with the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections-2008"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12768,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/10\/01\/electoral_college_watch_2.html","url_meta":{"origin":13634,"position":0},"title":"Electoral College Watch","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 1-Oct-08 8:44pm","format":false,"excerpt":"It's been a couple of weeks since I've reported on the current electoral college predictions, waiting first for the debate, then for the bailout bit to finally percolate into the...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Elections 2008&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16303,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2009\/11\/27\/thankssgiving-retrospective.html","url_meta":{"origin":13634,"position":1},"title":"Thanksgiving retrospective","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 27-Nov-09 11:19am","format":false,"excerpt":"Had a very nice Thanksgiving yesterday.\u00a0 Stan, Dave N., Dave & Jen & Anna, and Lee & De and Rachel all came over around 3, we sat down for dinner around ... 6:30ish, I think, and a good time was (it appeared) had by all. We ran into a few\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Food &amp; Drink&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Food &amp; Drink","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/food-drink"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7069,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2004\/11\/03\/some_welcome_di.html","url_meta":{"origin":13634,"position":2},"title":"Some welcome distracting humor for the day","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 3-Nov-04 10:58am","format":false,"excerpt":"A marvelous retrospective of 25 Great Calvin & Hobbes Strips. (via Steve)...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Comics &amp; Comic Books&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Comics &amp; Comic Books","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/media\/media-comics"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7268,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2005\/04\/11\/speaking_of_his.html","url_meta":{"origin":13634,"position":3},"title":"Speaking of history &#8230;","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 11-Apr-05 6:14pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Today is the 60th anniversary of the liberation of the Buchenwald concentration camp by the US Third Army. Orac has a retrospective....","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Potpourri&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Potpourri","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/potpourri"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":275,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2003\/05\/11\/ride.html","url_meta":{"origin":13634,"position":4},"title":"Ride!","author":"***Dave","date":"Sun 11-May-03 7:34am","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, the Boomerang 1980 cartoon retrospective on Cartoon Network started this morning with the apallingly bad and eminently (Dear God, please) forgettable Heathcliff and Dingbat, but then, whoa -- it's...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Media &amp; Culture&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Media &amp; Culture","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/media"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4191,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2003\/01\/21\/it_smells_like.html","url_meta":{"origin":13634,"position":5},"title":"It smells like &#8230; nostalgia","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 21-Jan-03 3:52pm","format":false,"excerpt":"A retrospective page looking at the \"daring\" US Pavilion at Canada's World Expo 67 (as well as other info on the Expo on other pages). It has that -- Tomorrowland...","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Potpourri&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Potpourri","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/potpourri"},"img":{"alt_text":"Wow!","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.archives.ca\/05\/0533\/images\/iu\/famille.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13634\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}