{"id":30059,"date":"2012-09-01T09:15:21","date_gmt":"2012-09-01T15:15:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/09\/01\/polls-and-convention-bounces.html"},"modified":"2012-09-01T09:15:21","modified_gmt":"2012-09-01T15:15:21","slug":"polls-and-convention-bounces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/09\/01\/polls-and-convention-bounces.html","title":{"rendered":"Polls and Convention Bounces"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nate Silver discusses how much of a convention bounce Romney is likely to get in his polling over the next week. \u00a0I have no doubt Romney will assume a thin lead in the polling, which will be trumpeted with much fanfare, and will prove to be countered by a similar thin convention bounce to Obama after the Dems' convention (assuming no other major factors come into play).<\/p>\n

What's fascinating to me is seeing how convention bounces have dropped in size\u00a0over the years, alongside convention ratings\u00a0— just as conventions have finished changing\u00a0from engaging, raucous battles of political ideologies and leadership struggles to highly-scripted coronation infomercials (on both sides of the aisle).<\/p>\n

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\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAug. 31: TV Ratings May Be Leading Indicator of Convention Bounce<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe mediocre television ratings for the Republican National Convention are one sign that Mitt Romney's convention bounce could be fairly modest.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Google+:<\/strong> View post on Google+<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nate Silver discusses how much of a convention bounce Romney is likely to get in his polling over the next week. \u00a0I have no doubt Romney will assume a thin lead in the polling, which will be trumpeted with much fanfare, and will prove to be countered by a similar thin convention bounce to Obama … Continue reading “Polls and Convention Bounces”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":30073,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/09\/03\/colbert-on-the-last-day-of-the-rnc.html","url_meta":{"origin":30059,"position":0},"title":"Colbert on the Last Day of the RNC","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 3-Sep-12 8:32pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Both with Mitt being \"plausible\" and the Fiendish Mystery of the Mystery Guest.http:\/\/www.colbertnation.com\/the-colbert-report-videos\/418609\/august-31-2012\/mitt-romney-s--solid--gop-convention-speechhttp:\/\/www.colbertnation.com\/the-colbert-report-videos\/418610\/august-31-2012\/the-gop-convention-s-mystery-speaker Embedded Link Colbert Report: Mitt Romney's \"Solid\" GOP Convention Speech Mitt Romney promises to put people before the planet, and pundit Chris Wallace just shuts up. Google+: View post on Google+","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11758,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2008\/02\/07\/mitt_splits.html","url_meta":{"origin":30059,"position":1},"title":"Mitt Splits","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 7-Feb-08 11:21am","format":false,"excerpt":"Mitt Romney is \"suspending his campaign\" (quitting the race) for the GOP nomination. I'm sure he (and pundits) will be scratching their heads for a loooooong time wondering how...","rel":"","context":"In "Elections 2008"","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2008","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2008"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/images\/voting-butterfly.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":30080,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/09\/04\/romney-v-kennedy.html","url_meta":{"origin":30059,"position":2},"title":"Romney v. Kennedy","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 4-Sep-12 11:27pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Whatever one thinks of Ted Kennedy, and the tribute to him at the Democratic Convention, it seems perfectly legit to include\u00a0what Mitt Romney said in his race versus Kennedy to illustrate what positions he passionately argued for less than a decade ago. Embedded Link GOP Really Angry Democrats Played Tribute\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":130327,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/03\/28\/well-nobody-expected-a-polite-gop-convention-did-they.html","url_meta":{"origin":30059,"position":3},"title":"Well, nobody expected a polite GOP convention, did they?","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 28-Mar-16 12:33pm","format":false,"excerpt":"If an armed society is a polite society, then I guess that means there will be a lot of impoliteness at the GOP convention. Who'd have thunk?Unless, of course, the RNC stands on principle and demands the Secret Service allow folk to carry guns into their convention in Cleveland. I\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26782,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/03\/01\/not-passing-the-sniff-test.html","url_meta":{"origin":30059,"position":4},"title":"Not passing the sniff test","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 1-Mar-12 2:46pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Really, Michigan GOP? You're that scared of Rick Santorum (I mean, I'm scared of him, too, but ...) that you have to pull this kind of zany \"Oh, we set up the rules early last month, but sent out the wrong memo to the candidates and everyone\" shenanigans? Great way\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":129861,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/02\/17\/suddenly-a-political-convention-might-actually-mean-something-again.html","url_meta":{"origin":30059,"position":5},"title":"Suddenly, a political convention might actually mean something again","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 17-Feb-16 2:18pm","format":false,"excerpt":"It's still to early to bet on how the rest of the GOP primary season will go, but the major campaigns (and major SuperPACs) are all figuring out how things might go if the first balloting in Cleveland doesn't deliver a majority for any one candidate. They're also, in many\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30059"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30059\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}