{"id":31112,"date":"2012-11-01T22:50:38","date_gmt":"2012-11-02T04:50:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/11\/01\/pundits-and-predictions.html"},"modified":"2013-05-01T07:46:37","modified_gmt":"2013-05-01T13:46:37","slug":"pundits-and-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/11\/01\/pundits-and-predictions.html","title":{"rendered":"Pundits and Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. Every pundit seems to have a strong idea that Their Candidate Will Win.<\/p>\n

2. Some substantial proportion of those pundits (let's say 50%) will turn out to be, in fact, dead wrong.<\/p>\n

3. All the wrong pundits will have plentiful reasons why their predictions were wrong, ranging from it being the fault of the electorate (poor turnout, lying to pollsters, flighty whimsy) to it being the fault of sinister forces (voter suppression, voter fraud) to it simply being One Of Those Things.<\/p>\n

4. Not one single pundit will lose their job, stop being invited to news shows, or be too shamed to have a strong idea in 2016 that Their Candidate Will Win.<\/p>\n

\n

Embedded Link<\/strong><\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe Volokh Conspiracy \u00bb Pundits and Predictions<\/a>
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tI agree with most of Ilya’s post below on why political pundits are overconfident that their side will win elections. I would just add an even more cynical point: A lot of political pundits are overco…\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Google+:<\/strong> View post on Google+<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1. Every pundit seems to have a strong idea that Their Candidate Will Win. 2. Some substantial proportion of those pundits (let's say 50%) will turn out to be, in fact, dead wrong. 3. All the wrong pundits will have plentiful reasons why their predictions were wrong, ranging from it being the fault of the … Continue reading “Pundits and Predictions”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106,99,12,347],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts","category-elections-2012","category-fourth-estate","category-voting-rights"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":31265,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/11\/07\/is-punditry-dead.html","url_meta":{"origin":31112,"position":0},"title":"Is Punditry Dead?","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 7-Nov-12 10:26am","format":false,"excerpt":"Of course not. Because even though Nate Silver is a pleasant\u00a0enough fellow to hear being interviewed, and even though some of us get our kicks watching slow decimal point trending \u00a0over time and enjoy the wonkiness of models and aggregation and poll quality ... the fact is, TV (et al.)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":30903,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/10\/26\/in-other-news-rain-is-wet.html","url_meta":{"origin":31112,"position":1},"title":"In other news, rain is wet","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 26-Oct-12 1:23pm","format":false,"excerpt":"This will not come as a surprise to anyone who's listened to ... well, pretty much pundit during this entire presidential campaign.'The political commentator class is, for the most part, little more than a bunch of regular people like you and me who were lucky enough to land jobs writing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31269,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/11\/07\/viewed-askewed.html","url_meta":{"origin":31112,"position":2},"title":"Viewed Askewed","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 7-Nov-12 11:23am","format":false,"excerpt":"The \"Unskewed Polls\" site, led by Dean Chambers, was clung to desperately by a number of GOP partisans, and was a keystone of the arguments by folks like George Will and Donald Trump and Bryan Fischer that Romney would win in a landslide of 300 ECV or more.Granted, there was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9490,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2006\/06\/27\/respect_is_earn.html","url_meta":{"origin":31112,"position":3},"title":"Respect is earned, not guilted into","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 27-Jun-06 7:17am","format":false,"excerpt":"BD points to a rather snarky editorial in the Rocky Mountain News about the (gasp) evil threat that The Daily Show poses to the Body Politic. A number of prominent...","rel":"","context":"In "Fourth Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Fourth Estate","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/media\/fourth-estate"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5319,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2004\/04\/07\/what_we_dont_kn.html","url_meta":{"origin":31112,"position":4},"title":"What we don’t know can hurt us","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 7-Apr-04 3:01pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Here's a long and fascinating article about something I touched on briefly yesterday, the tension between security and privacy. Immediately after 9\/11, politicians and pundits slammed the Bush administration for...","rel":"","context":"In "Homeland Security"","block_context":{"text":"Homeland Security","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/homeland-security"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7318,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2005\/03\/31\/requiescat_in_p.html","url_meta":{"origin":31112,"position":5},"title":"Requiescat in pace","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 31-Mar-05 9:34am","format":false,"excerpt":"May Terri Schiavo, and her family, now finally find the peace that was denied them by the politicians, pundits, and the press. Her relatives and friends never reached a consensus...","rel":"","context":"In "Health"","block_context":{"text":"Health","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/health"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31112"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31112\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33477,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31112\/revisions\/33477"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}