{"id":31257,"date":"2012-11-07T06:45:17","date_gmt":"2012-11-07T13:45:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/11\/07\/math.html"},"modified":"2012-11-07T06:45:17","modified_gmt":"2012-11-07T13:45:17","slug":"math","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/11\/07\/math.html","title":{"rendered":"Math!"},"content":{"rendered":"

I think one of the most noteworthy things about this particular election was whole debate over polling and polling numbers. \u00a0Never, it seemed to me, had the number and predictions, leading into the Day Of, been so far apart.<\/p>\n

Part of that was, I believe, because of the evolution of intelligent polling aggregation, of the kind Nate Silver does (and which we'll see a lot<\/i> more ofin the future), meaning that the natural variances between polls and the tendency to cherry-pick the ones you want couldn't hold up.<\/p>\n

The other part of this was what I think was an explicit, intentional effort to simply present the numbers that the GOP and GOP faithful wanted to see. Whether it was wishful thinking ("All the polls are skewed to the Left, so we'll just shift everything 5% to the Right") or an intentionally deceptive act to encourage the troops, I have no idea. Perhaps some of both, depending on who was doing it.<\/p>\n

Polls and surveys aren't perfect, of course, both because of methodological issues and because people don't make their decision, really, until they make their decision. "Dewey Beats Truman!" and all that. \u00a0But they are of value, when used correctly (just as individual experimental results can, with care, be aggregated into larger studies), and I think we just got a good demonstration of that.<\/p>\n

(h\/t +<\/span>Shannon Turlington<\/a><\/span>; via\u00a0http:\/\/xkcd.com\/1131\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Google+:<\/strong> View post on Google+<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I think one of the most noteworthy things about this particular election was whole debate over polling and polling numbers. \u00a0Never, it seemed to me, had the number and predictions, leading into the Day Of, been so far apart. Part of that was, I believe, because of the evolution of intelligent polling aggregation, of the … Continue reading “Math!”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9984,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2006\/10\/02\/poll_ish.html","url_meta":{"origin":31257,"position":0},"title":"Poll-ish","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 2-Oct-06 2:22pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Polls are, generally, for people who like to fool themselves into seeing what they want to see. But, like car crashes, they still have power to draw attention, especially as...","rel":"","context":"In "Politics & Law"","block_context":{"text":"Politics & Law","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27318,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/04\/03\/its-a-looooong-way-to-november.html","url_meta":{"origin":31257,"position":1},"title":"It's a looooong way to November","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 3-Apr-12 9:23pm","format":false,"excerpt":"But these are (to me) encouraging numbers. Whereas a year ago, there was a higher percentage of Republicans excited about the fall election, as of the last PPP poll, that's swung over to a large (11 point) Dem \"very excited\" advantage. That's both from more Dems and fewer GOPers being\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31247,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/11\/06\/once-again-the-gop-makes-us-look-like-idiots-internationally.html","url_meta":{"origin":31257,"position":2},"title":"Once again, the GOP makes us look like idiots internationally","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 6-Nov-12 5:55pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Or, if not idiots, then xenophobes. Or maybe just a banana republic that's trying to hide hanky-panky.Dolts. Embedded Link International observers blocked from polls in nine states A group of international electoral observers has been blocked from polling places in nine states and has had to take precautions in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23711,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2011\/11\/14\/the-candidate-is-turning-into-a-newt.html","url_meta":{"origin":31257,"position":3},"title":"The Candidate Is Turning into a Newt","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 14-Nov-11 11:21am","format":false,"excerpt":"There have been several polls showing a surge for Newt Gingrch's GOP candidacy for President, though this is the most favorable one. Apparently the faltering of both Cain and Perry is benefiting Newt a lot more than Romney (who is pretty soundly disliked by the Right).How this will translate into\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":39497,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/11\/01\/just-in-case-there-was-any-doubt-about-polling-place-reform.html","url_meta":{"origin":31257,"position":4},"title":"Just in case there was any doubt about polling place reform","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 1-Nov-13 11:06pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Why has the GOP been so gung-ho about curbing early voting and extended voting hours? Is it to save costs and somehow avoid fraud? \u00a0Nah. It's to reduce voting by Democrats. Don't believe me? Ask some folks who used to be in the GOP power structure, but now aren't. Former\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":130923,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/06\/19\/polls-tax-my-nerves.html","url_meta":{"origin":31257,"position":5},"title":"Polls Tax My Nerves","author":"***Dave","date":"Sun 19-Jun-16 2:12pm","format":false,"excerpt":"This past week I have read stories touting how Trump in Polling Death Spiral and Clinton Lead Over Trump Slips After Shooting and Trump Orlando Response Loses Poll Support and ...Folk. It's mid-June. The conventions have not occurred. The serious ad spends have not started. The \"October Surprise\"(s) are still\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/deweywins5B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/deweywins5B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/deweywins5B15D.jpgimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31257\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}