{"id":31980,"date":"2012-12-31T10:50:17","date_gmt":"2012-12-31T17:50:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/12\/31\/political-games.html"},"modified":"2012-12-31T10:50:17","modified_gmt":"2012-12-31T17:50:17","slug":"political-games","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/12\/31\/political-games.html","title":{"rendered":"Political Games"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why the battle over the fiscal cliff? \u00a0Donoghue argues that the Hastert Rule — Thou Shalt Only Pass Legislation in the House with A Majority of the Republicans<\/i> — makes it nearly impossible for the Speaker (poor John Boehner) to create a coalition of Republicans and<\/i> Democrats to get something passed. And as long as Boehner sticks to that rule (and thus keeps his Speaker position), the least compromising of the GOP can continue to work their way, even if a majority of the overall House<\/i> feels differently.<\/p>\n

Ah, politics …<\/p>\n

Reshared post from +Rob Donoghue<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Another Nerdy Political One. \u00a0You have been warned.<\/p>\n

Ok, so here's why the events in the House surrounding the fiscal cliff are fascinating.<\/p>\n

Historically, the Speaker of the House was a dealmaker, not a political officer. \u00a0That is to say, when they wanted to get something through Congress, they built a block of votes from wherever they could be found. \u00a0Their position in the majority was a lever, but it did not define their role. \u00a0This was not "bipartisanship" – that's weak sauce – it was coalition building. \u00a0If you read any history of congress, it's full of great stories about this.<\/p>\n

This changed. \u00a0It was not a gradual change, though the exact time is hard to pinpoint. Basically, when Newt Gingrich took over the house in 95 he started implementing a "Majority of the Majority" policy, which was then cemented by his successor Denny Hastert (and it is often called the "Hastert Rule"). \u00a0 What this meant was that it would require a Republican majority (rather than a coalition) for a bill to pass through the House.<\/p>\n

I realize that this might be perceived as a partisan assertion, but really it's not. \u00a0It's in the records, and the details are nerdy enough that I won't go into them, but it is a thing, which happened. \u00a0But there are a few consequences subject to interpretation:<\/p>\n

* This is a part of why politics has grown more partisan. \u00a0Even in places not directly impacted by the Hastert rule, the fact that the House acts as a chokepoint has a ripple effect. Basic math.<\/p>\n

* This is also why a minority within the majority can exercise disproportionate authority – they're necessary for getting an all-republican vote past 50%. \u00a0Historically, there were alternatives that pushed things to moderation, but those alternatives are off the table under the Hastert Rule. Again, basic math.<\/p>\n

* There is nothing intrinsic to the republican party that demands this arrangement. It's simply a result of the personalities and situation surrounding the GOP takeover of the house and moves to cement their base. \u00a0If the Democrats were to take control of the House and follow the same rule, they'd encounter the same problems.<\/p>\n

Anyway, the fiscal cliff is casting this into sharp relief. \u00a0See, the problem for Speaker Boehner is not that he doesn't have enough votes, the problem is that he doesn't have enough republican<\/b> votes. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Boehner's plan B was a last gasp to try to build a majority of the majority to deal with the fiscal cliff, and the minority of the majority tanked it. \u00a0Effectively, it's a power play – a bet that Boehner would be unwilling to break the Hastert Rule. \u00a0 If he builds a coalition, he loses the support of the minority (and the $$$ they represent) just as a new term begins. If he doesn't build a coalition (or find some internal compromise) then we go over the cliff, and we roll the dice with the future. \u00a0And, heck, some political animals might be happy to roll the dice, betting that another economic downturn will garner more republican seats.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So, I'm watching all this for the outcome of the cliff, certainty, but I'm doubly watching it as a battle for the future of the House.\u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Google+:<\/strong> View post on Google+<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why the battle over the fiscal cliff? \u00a0Donoghue argues that the Hastert Rule — Thou Shalt Only Pass Legislation in the House with A Majority of the Republicans — makes it nearly impossible for the Speaker (poor John Boehner) to create a coalition of Republicans and Democrats to get something passed. And as long as … Continue reading “Political Games”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":49167,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2015\/01\/06\/watching-the-house-gop-and-munching-popcorn.html","url_meta":{"origin":31980,"position":0},"title":"Watching the House GOP (and munching popcorn)","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 6-Jan-15 11:19am","format":false,"excerpt":"As with so many of the zanies that pop up from the TP wing of the GOP, my feelings on Louie Gohmert are mixed.On the one hand, if he took over as Speaker, his agenda might finally appall enough moderates amongst the citizenry to vote the bums out in 2016.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":39993,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/12\/11\/boehner-gets-cranky-at-fiscal-conservative-groups.html","url_meta":{"origin":31980,"position":1},"title":"Boehner gets cranky at fiscal conservative groups","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 11-Dec-13 9:49am","format":false,"excerpt":"He's miffed about groups like\u00a0Club For Growth, Heritage Action, FreedomWorks, and Americans For Prosperity that were criticizing the Ryan \/ Murray budget deal before it came out.Yeah, yeah, own petard and all that, but it's nice to see him actually say something about the folks who have been jerking his\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31884,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/12\/21\/they-are-not-a-political-party-because-they-have-rendered-themselves-incapable.html","url_meta":{"origin":31980,"position":2},"title":""They are not a political party because they have rendered themselves incapable…","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 21-Dec-12 12:07pm","format":false,"excerpt":"\"They are not a political party because they have rendered themselves incapable of politics\"There's a lot of things I dislike about John Boehner, but there are indeed times I feel sorry for the man.'Last night, he couldn't get the votes to pass a truly horrid plutocrat's wet dream. He couldn't\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":39050,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/10\/04\/is-john-boehner-willing-to-drive-us-over-a-cliff-maybe.html","url_meta":{"origin":31980,"position":3},"title":"Is John Boehner willing to drive us over a cliff? Maybe","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 4-Oct-13 11:23am","format":false,"excerpt":"Or maybe not. \u00a0Today, regarding the 17 October deadline for raising the debt limit before we simply cannot pay our government's bills, he said:'I don\u2019t believe that we should default on our debt. It\u2019s not good for our country.'Okay, that's promising.'_But ...'_Uh-oh.' ... after 55 years of spending more than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":39560,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/11\/04\/hardly-shocking-news-on-enda.html","url_meta":{"origin":31980,"position":4},"title":"Hardly shocking news on ENDA","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 4-Nov-13 11:40am","format":false,"excerpt":"Did anyone actually expect John Boehner or the House GOP to support a law that prohibits, as federal law, discrimination against gays?What's only noteworthy is that it comes as the Senate seems to be solidifying to be able to bypass a threatened GOP filibuster there and pass the law. \u00a0If\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":128155,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2015\/09\/25\/boehner-announces-his-resignation-from-congress.html","url_meta":{"origin":31980,"position":5},"title":"Boehner announces his resignation from Congress","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 25-Sep-15 10:22am","format":false,"excerpt":"Not just stepping down as Speaker, but actually leaving office at the end of October.I am no fan of Boehner. He's represented an institutional side of the GOP that has cynically set out not only to advance its own agenda, but to foil any achievement that the current Administration might\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31980"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31980\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}