{"id":39000,"date":"2013-10-03T11:22:04","date_gmt":"2013-10-03T17:22:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/10\/03\/its-not-crashing-through-the-guard-rail-that-kills-you.html"},"modified":"2013-10-03T18:15:26","modified_gmt":"2013-10-04T00:15:26","slug":"its-not-crashing-through-the-guard-rail-that-kills-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/10\/03\/its-not-crashing-through-the-guard-rail-that-kills-you.html","title":{"rendered":"It's not crashing through the guard rail that kills you"},"content":{"rendered":"
…. it's hitting the ground below.<\/p>\n

Which is another way to say that the government shutdown (no, Fox, not "slimdown") is, in fact, bad, but playing chicken with the debt limit is the point where the Coyote (or the US, or the World Economy) goes "boom" in a cloud of dust.<\/p>\n

The three alternatives to that (assuming the GOP keeps kicking in the afterburners as we plummet downward) are as laid out here: the Dems cave (ensuring further such destructive antics from the GOP), nobody blinks and we find out just how disastrous it turns out to be, or Obama uses one of a few suggested (but arguably\u00a0sketchy) means of getting rid of the debt limit altogether (net-net the best thing, but sure to draw hyperbolic outrage from the hardliners so thwarted; I would expect impeachment proceedings to follow).<\/p>\n

Reshared post from +Gary Roth<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

As a general rule, I don't go in too much in these budget fights.\u00a0 People probably note I talk more about the authoritarian problem than the Republican vs. Democrat problem.<\/p>\n

But, you see, things just got a lot worse than a shutdown.\u00a0 The Republicans just tied the fight to the debt ceiling as well.<\/p>\n

A shutdown is invisible to most people.\u00a0 The ones it hurts immediately are typically the most underprivileged and underrepresented (like those who need SNAP to not starve), but most of us continue on as normal.\u00a0 For scientists like me, it impacts our ability to apply for funding which is a nasty thing, but most of you won't feel the impact on technological development for years, when it's diffuse and difficult to pinpoint.\u00a0 The same is true for a lot of services: it will do a lot of damage, but it's so nebulous and distant that it's hard to grasp.<\/p>\n

The debt is another matter.\u00a0 Brinksmanship with a shutdown looming is like gambling with the lives of millions who have no influence and, as such, can be done (especially by callous jackasses who are only after donors and votes).\u00a0 Brinksmanship with a debt ceiling is gambling with the full faith and credit of the US.\u00a0 In other words: it's gambling with the value of the dollar itself.\u00a0 Since everyone either uses dollars or products whose price is directly connected to the dollar, this is a very dangerous thing to gamble with.<\/p>\n

The problem is that Republicans are quite willing to gamble with it.\u00a0 Democrats lately haven't been and, as a result, have been willing to cave to most Republican demands when these fights occur.\u00a0 The reason is that the Democrats aren't crazy.\u00a0 They're rational and will accept a loss over total collapse.\u00a0 But the Republicans like this pattern and have come to realize that, as long as they act crazy, the Democrats will cave to their demands.<\/p>\n

Eventually, the Democrats will lose everything or will stand up and fight.\u00a0 The problem is that the Democrats have created a monster: by backing down every time in the past, they have given the Republicans no reason to think it won't happen again.\u00a0 As in times past, the Republicans feel they can get their way if they just push a little harder.\u00a0 Worse, the extreme part of their base is encouraged by this belief, so even though the average American hates it, the base supports this tactic and so we can't rely on popular pressure to change their mind.\u00a0 And now that Obama faces the loss of his only substantial positive result of his presidency, the health care law, he will encourage his own party to stand firm.\u00a0 Thus, it seems neither side will budge.<\/p>\n

Now, disaster isn't completely inevitable here.\u00a0 The President has the same two options he's always had.\u00a0 He can choose to cite the Fourteenth Amendment, which has a clause stating that the "The validity of the public debt of the United States … shall not be questioned."\u00a0 However, this is tricky, and will inevitably result in a massive legal battle, because this was not the intended use of the clause (debt limits really didn't exist at the time, originating during a massive restructuring over fifty years later) and that the phrasing doesn't clearly grant the President power to violate one law of Congress (the debt limit) to uphold another (debts issued legitimately under the law).<\/p>\n

The other way involves a trick involving the US treasury: either minting platinum coins of enough value to pay down the debt for a while and simply depositing them (effectively just making more money).\u00a0 There is another approach which uses the Federal Reserve to do much the same thing, but it's a bit more convoluted.\u00a0 These methods seem magical to some and draw criticism, but the reality is that they don't fundamentally change the nature of the game: they just put enough money in the US coffers to keep doing business as usual and, in an oblique way, work around the debt ceiling.<\/p>\n

Here's the thing that makes defeating the debt ceiling so important: it doesn't defeat it once.\u00a0 It defeats it forever.\u00a0 Barring an act of Congress, the rules of this game won't change, and the debt ceiling will cease to be a useful bargaining chip in these negotiations.\u00a0 This is why it should have been done years ago: it would have protected our credit not only from default but from the uncertainty that Congressional brinksmanship creates in the world markets.<\/p>\n

Either way, the President faces a choice.\u00a0 He cannot count on Republicans backing down.\u00a0 This offers him only three options: either drive over the cliff (default and see what happens), abandon the Healthcare law (losing his legacy and only delaying before this happens, yet again, further down the line), or kill the debt ceiling argument forever with one of the two previously described options.<\/p>\n

I'm not sure which one of these he'll take.\u00a0 He should have done the latter for the last several years and, in failing to do so, created the monster he now faces today.\u00a0 But maybe this time, facing the ultimate destruction of what little positive legacy he may have, he'll do what needs to be done.\u00a0 Only time will tell.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

\n

\n \n <\/div>\n

S&P Is Underestimating How Dangerous Tea Party Republicans Are For The World\u2019s Economy<\/a>
\n When Standard & Poor’s downgraded America’s credit rating from AAA to\u00a0AA+ after 2011’s debt limit crisis, President Obama was apoplectic. \u201cOur problem\n <\/p>\n


This post has been reshared 1 times on Google+<\/a>
<\/span> View this post on Google+<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

…. it's hitting the ground below. Which is another way to say that the government shutdown (no, Fox, not "slimdown") is, in fact, bad, but playing chicken with the debt limit is the point where the Coyote (or the US, or the World Economy) goes "boom" in a cloud of dust. The three alternatives to … Continue reading “It's not crashing through the guard rail that kills you”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106,77,358],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts","category-economy","category-poor-citizenship"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":32045,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/01\/03\/the-debt-limit-negotiations-arent-negotiations.html","url_meta":{"origin":39000,"position":0},"title":"The Debt Limit negotiations … aren't negotiations","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 3-Jan-13 11:07pm","format":false,"excerpt":"As Greg Sargent explains, the GOP already admits that not raising the debt limit -- which allows the government to pay the bills Congress has already authorized -- that the country will be seriously damaged financially and see its credit rating dropped (again).So if they recognize that -- on what\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38816,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/09\/26\/on-compromise-and-the-debt-ceiling.html","url_meta":{"origin":39000,"position":1},"title":"On "compromise" and the debt ceiling","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 26-Sep-13 11:43am","format":false,"excerpt":"What caught my eye here was that the debt ceiling \"compromise\" \u00a0the House GOP is proposing isn't even just \"We must end the EVIL OBAMACARE at all costs,\" but an amazing laundry list of GOP fantasies:'...\u00a0what Republicans want in exchange for agreeing to not default on the national debt is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":32202,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/01\/14\/paying-our-debts.html","url_meta":{"origin":39000,"position":2},"title":"Paying our debts","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 14-Jan-13 8:28pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Tell me again why the GOP thinks they can negotiate \"substantial spending and entitlement cuts\" in exchange for a debt ceiling raise? \u00a0_Congress already approved the spending of that money._ \u00a0If they want to cut spending and entitlements, then do so in a straightforward fashion, not by demanding give-backs.It's like\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":39177,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2013\/10\/10\/gop-hardliners-graciously-kick-the-can-down-the-road-a-few-weeks.html","url_meta":{"origin":39000,"position":3},"title":"GOP Hardliners graciously kick the can down the road a few weeks","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 10-Oct-13 4:23pm","format":false,"excerpt":"I can't wait to hear how this is touted as \"compromise\" by pundits on the Right. \"We've promised not to shoot this one particular hostage for another twenty-four hours. We've very reasonable. Now, what are you going to give us in return?\"Reshared post from +Andreas SchouHurray! The apocalyptic crisis of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27188,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/03\/21\/there-is-a-higher-morality-than-lowering-the-national-debt.html","url_meta":{"origin":39000,"position":4},"title":"There is a higher morality than lowering the national debt","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 21-Mar-12 2:34pm","format":false,"excerpt":"It's also nice to see some of the \"faith leaders\" who don't toe the GOP line getting some press. #ddtb Embedded Link Faith Leaders Blast House GOP Budget As \u2018Immoral Disaster\u2019 That \u2018Robs The Poor\u2019 When House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) released his Medicare-ending, safety net-gutting 2012 budget\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":46772,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2014\/11\/06\/so-remember-mr-president-no-poisoning-the-well.html","url_meta":{"origin":39000,"position":5},"title":"So, remember, Mr. President, no poisoning the well!","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 6-Nov-14 5:11am","format":false,"excerpt":"GOP leadership urged the President today to not \"poison the well,\" to avoid inflammatory statements that would stand in the way of creating a cooperative, mutual, bi-partisan path forward to a better America and the governance thereof.Of course, quoth John Boehner, now that he and his buddy Mitch are large\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39000"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39000\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39021,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39000\/revisions\/39021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}