{"id":40770,"date":"2014-01-12T01:15:24","date_gmt":"2014-01-12T08:15:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2014\/01\/12\/preducting-the-future.html"},"modified":"2014-01-12T01:46:45","modified_gmt":"2014-01-12T08:46:45","slug":"preducting-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2014\/01\/12\/preducting-the-future.html","title":{"rendered":"Predicting! The! Future!"},"content":{"rendered":"
I always love these kinds of lists. I should put a reminder in my calendar for this in five years …<\/p>\n

A lot of these predictions will be true for a sizable chunk of the population — people well-off and\/or tech-savvy enough to jump on the new possibilities — but there will be a substantial part who say, "Hey, I'm happy with what I have, and this new stuff is too confusing."<\/p>\n

My thoughts:<\/p>\n

1.\u00a0Blu-ray\/DVD players<\/p>\n

Maybe. Five years might be too short there. Penetration by streaming video is still a little problematic, the portability issue remains (tablets work, but the power and storage \/ connectivity-bandwidth for watching a library of movies on the plane or in the back seat of the car is still a ways off), and I think increasing concerns over DRM models and what you actually own will have people reluctant to completely jump into that boat.<\/p>\n

Anecdotally: We buy a lot fewer discs these days, for a variety of reasons, but in part because get can get that "one off" watching of a lot of things through existing services (I have so far resisted anything beyond Amazon, since I'm already a Prime member). Kay is more comfortable in streaming things than in slapping a disc in than we are.<\/p>\n

2.\u00a0Stand-alone in-car GPS units<\/p>\n

Only to the extent that the folks who enjoy or care to use in-car GPS will be comfortable using it with their phones. Folks who don't have a GPS already aren't likely to get one.<\/p>\n

Part of this will be also better integration of phones (across major platforms) into the car's systems.<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0Dial-up Internet<\/p>\n

I definitely think so. I'm not quite of the "Broadband is a right!" crowd, but increasingly it's becoming more and more critical to have reasonably fast online capability in order to participate in society (see also #1 on this list).<\/p>\n

4.\u00a0Low-end digital cameras<\/p>\n

I think this is already true to some degree. \u00a0The question will be, what that low end is. We need a good quantum jump in camera power on smartphones in order to let the incredible convenience of always having a camera with you be truly fulfilled by decent zooming and performance.<\/p>\n

5. Car keys<\/p>\n

On new cars? \u00a0I think it highly likely. Going the next step to using cell phones? Not without a quantum leap in power\/reliability of cell phones (frankly, I don't want to have my phone getting hung up or being out of juice to mean I can't get into my car).<\/p>\n

Predicting the future is difficult. I expect to laugh at my predictions in five years …<\/p>\n

Reshared post from +John E. Bredehoft<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The big news is that people are still using dialup.\ufeff<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

\n

\n \n <\/div>\n

5 Tech Products That Will Be Dead in 5 Years | TIME.com<\/a>
\n With the speed of innovation in the tech industry, we can\u2019t know every piece of technology that will fill our everyday lives in five years, but we can predict what won’t last.\n <\/p>\n

View this post on Google+<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I always love these kinds of lists. I should put a reminder in my calendar for this in five years … A lot of these predictions will be true for a sizable chunk of the population — people well-off and\/or tech-savvy enough to jump on the new possibilities — but there will be a substantial … Continue reading “Predicting! The! Future!”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[124],"class_list":["post-40770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts","tag-124"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":29965,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/08\/25\/jump-2.html","url_meta":{"origin":40770,"position":0},"title":"Jump!","author":"***Dave","date":"Sat 25-Aug-12 6:10pm","format":false,"excerpt":"What would happen if everyone in the world were magically transported to Rhode Island and jump up in the air at the same time?Heh. Embedded Link Everybody Jump Prev \u00b7 Everybody Jump. What would happen if everyone on earth stood as close to each other as they could and jumped,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":29813,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/08\/14\/jump.html","url_meta":{"origin":40770,"position":1},"title":"Jump!","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 14-Aug-12 10:27pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Philippe Halsman's philosophy on asking celebrities to jump during the picture:\"When you ask a person to jump, his attention is mostly directed toward the act of jumping and the mask falls so that the real person appears.\" Embedded Link 10 Photos of Celebrities Jumping for History\u2019s Most Persuasive Photographer -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6658,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2004\/08\/09\/lickety_clicket.html","url_meta":{"origin":40770,"position":2},"title":"Lickety-clickety","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 9-Aug-04 7:57am","format":false,"excerpt":"I'd like to commend to you a series of adaptations of Joel Chandler Harris' Uncle Remus stories, Jump!, Jump Again!, and Jump On Over!. 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