[N.B. This post was never actually finished\/published at the time it was written.]<\/p>\n
My memories of Gray Davis are of his name ubiquitously showing up in the legislative analyses of ballot propositions when I was coming of a voting age. I always thought he had a cool name, and thought it unlikely that he’d ever be a political leader.<\/p>\n
I’ve not followed the precise sequence of events in California over the past several years, since I’ve not been a resident. I do know that, depending on who you talk to, Governor Davis is either Being Railroaded by a Right-wing Conspiracy Trying to Blame Him for the Evils of Enron, or else he’s the Worst Governor Since Pontius Pilate and He Raise the Car Tax Too Much (and Illegally).<\/p>\n
The truth is likely somewhere in-between, of course.<\/p>\n
As to the prospects of Governor Ahhhnold, he’d be just the latest in a line of movie stars turned political leaders, some of whom have been successes, some not. He’s shown a measure of business acumen (though that, too, hasn’t always been a guarantee of political success). He, like any Republican, is going to face an overwhelmingly Democratic state legislature and state government, so, like the dog who finally catches a car, what to do next will probably be a worth a head-scratch or two.<\/p>\n
But, regardless, my topic is the recall system itself.<\/p>\n
California is democracy-crazy. The political and legal landscape there has been wildly influenced by the popular referendum, which basically lets the legislature get by with doing nothing bold, knowing that one special interest group or another will turn around and get those bold proposals (whether brilliant, lunatic, or both) on the ballot. Proposition 13 was the most famous example, but many others have come down the pike since then, from term limits to tobacco limits to affirmative action and bilingual education. It’s a crazy way of doing government, and whether you approve of it or not depends on (a) your belief in pure democracy vs. representative democracy, and (b) your pet proposals getting through.<\/p>\n
The recall process is part and parcel of this political landscape, since, as we all know by now, all you have to do is get a petition through and the existing incumbent governor is voted up or down; if down, any clown with only a plurality of votes can get in.<\/p>\n
This is, as has been loudly portrayed, anti-democratic.<\/p>\n
I suspect, of course, that were it an Evil Conservative Republican Governor being so recalled, that the folks decrying the current recall laws would be declaring them a brilliant triumph for democracy — and, of course, to some degree, vice-versa. Democracy is usually waved around as a banner — in hoc signo vinces<\/i> — when it’s battling on your side.<\/p>\n
I dunno. Like most Americans, I suspect, I’m deeply suspect of the wisdom of the mob, even while I maintain that trusting the mob’s wisdom is better than trusting to the political class. As in most things, it depends on whether my own ox is being gored.<\/p>\n
The basis for the “anti-democratic” argument (partisan politics aside) is that (a) the recall process invalidates an election, and (b) by requiring only a plurality, it works against the will of the people.<\/p>\n
Argument (a) makes no sense to me. A recall does not invalidate an election, it shortens the period before the next election<\/i>. It is, in a sense, super-democratic, in that it serves as a short-term referendum on whether a representative is doing what they were elected to do.<\/p>\n
(Whether this is wise or not is another matter — but to argue it’s unwise is in fact to argue against <\/i>pure democracy, not for it.)<\/p>\n
Argument (b) carries a bit more weight — though, to be sure, most elections are decided by a plurality of the voting population<\/i>, as opposed to a plurality of actual voters. In an era of election turn-outs of 20-30%, for example, nobody can claim to represent the majority, except insofar as silence implies consent. Which, in fact, I believe it does.<\/p>\n
In point of fact, Gray Davis was re-elected in 2002 with a plurality <\/i>of the vote<\/a>, not a majority. He had 47.4% of the vote, vs. his nearest competitor, Bill Simon, who had 42.4%. That is, in fact, a plurality, even before you consider that those numbers were from <\/a>the only 50.6% of the registered voters who actually voted — or the 36.1% of the population that was eligible to vote.<\/p>\n One could even make the argument that California recalls are more democratic than the normal election, insofar as the bar for entering as a candidate is so low. There are no primaries to either winnow out the true lunatic fringe from the candidate pool in each party (or, depending on who’s analyzing it, to winnow out the moderate centrists who don’t appeal to the radical fringes who run the party machines); thus, nearly anyone can (and did) run, and the choice of candidates to the public is much broader, much less filtered, than in an ordinary campaign.<\/p>\n I’m not sure if that’s a good thing, but an occasional shake-up of the political status quo <\/i>often is.<\/p>\n The companion argument to the California recall being anti-democratic is that it is part of a Vast GOP Plot to “steal” elections that it cannot win. The data points for this are pretty sparse (the contested Florida vote is one, the impeachment of Bill Clinton (though he would have been succeeded by Al Gore, not by Bob Dole) is the other). On the other hand, if this were such a plot, I’d expect to see a lot more of that sort of thing around the country, and I’d expect it in locations where having a Republican at the helm would actually make a difference (to bolster the House and Senate counts, for example, not to win the governorship of California). And, of course, bearing in mind that the recall is being done legally<\/i>, by state law<\/i>, not only is the “stealing” metaphor strained beyond recognition, it’s a two-edged sword. Surely, if the Dems want to, given their historic majority registration <\/a>in the state, it would be easier for them to recall a GOP governor than the other way around; indeed, many people expect to see just that sort of thing happen, regardless of who wins.<\/p>\n In which case, it will be up to the petitioners of California, as well as the voters, to decide when enough is enough. Which sounds pretty democratic to me.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" [N.B. 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