{"id":48104,"date":"2014-11-14T11:36:11","date_gmt":"2014-11-14T18:36:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2014\/11\/14\/predicting-the-political-future.html"},"modified":"2014-11-14T11:36:11","modified_gmt":"2014-11-14T18:36:11","slug":"predicting-the-political-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2014\/11\/14\/predicting-the-political-future.html","title":{"rendered":"Predicting the Political Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

After every election we get a lot of people making a lot of absolute assertions about what the election meant and, more importantly, how it heralds a change in the political landscape that is clear and will never, ever again be doubted.<\/p>\n

These are usually in the form of "The Democratic Party is Doomed" and "The Republican Party is Doomed." I have seen those memes play out in more elections than I care to name and, y'know what? Two to four years later, they flip-flop. <\/p>\n

That's usually because personality plays a huge role in politics, especially in things like the presidential races. And other factors on the ground — the economy, scandals, major geopolitical events, natural disasters, etc. — can all have an effect beyond what the general analysts can foresee. Like Hari Seldon, even when the most clear-eyed, they can only predict trends, not upsetting event.<\/p>\n

That said, there are a very small set of factors that are going to set those overall trends. I suspect either party will adapt to them over time, but the lag in doing so will be a major factor.<\/p>\n

The first is demographics, which the article below touches on. The GOP keeps trying and failing to bridge the gap between their majority older, whiter, male-er constituency and other groups that are coming along in power (women) and numbers (ethnic\/racial minorities, esp. Black and Hispanic populations).<\/p>\n

There are reasons for these failures. Because the GOP is still barely winning, the pressure to change is lower than it should be, and the pressure to dog-whistle to the stereotypical constituencies continues to work, esp. as the GOP puts its thumbs on the scales with various voting gimmicks. But, ultimately, without changing its appeal and us-vs-them (and-you-know-who-THEY- are) mentality, the clock is ticking.<\/p>\n

This kind of change is perfectly doable — there are plenty of moderate once-considered-mainstream GOP policy proposals and directions that, while I don't agree with them as much as more progressive policies these days, are not so toxic as to drive entire populations away from the GOP brand. The GOP of Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, even elements of the (couldn't be elected today) Reagan and G H W Bush eras could attract a lot of attention back. It would me abandoning the theocrats and the Randians, but it can be done.<\/p>\n

The missing piece in the article below, when it comes to the presidential elections, is one more thumb-on-the-scales action I think we'll see the GOP (at the state level, though organized nationally) do, and that's tinker with the electoral college system itself. We're already seeing that in Michigan, where proposals are being made to allocate electoral votes based roughly on the popular vote. Other even-more-pernicious proposals allocate them based on congressional districts, which suddenly makes gerrymandering the hell out of the map a lot more attractive for whichever party is in power. These proposals are coming strictly from GOP-dominated statehouses, and all are designed to flip EVs over to the red side of things. And that could change the complexion of the map below substantially.<\/p>\n

(Proportional voting certainly has something to say for it — if everyone<\/i> does it. If not, then it's something easily gamed … and that's what is very openly being said by folk who are supporting it in proposals seriously under consideration.)<\/p>\n

At any rate, as bummed as I was by how the midterms came out, it's hard for me to either despair (because things are<\/i> likely to change again) or gloat in anticipation for 2016 (because of the intentional and unintentional things which could upset that election). I have to content myself with just Waiting and Seeing. And, when the time comes, Voting.<\/p>\n

Originally shared by +Les Jenkins<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Upset about the Republican wins in the midterms? This'll make you feel better. Note: This was written by a Republican.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n
\n
\n<\/a>
\nThe missing story of the 2014 election<\/a><\/span>
\nFor Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this tre…\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

View on Google+<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After every election we get a lot of people making a lot of absolute assertions about what the election meant and, more importantly, how it heralds a change in the political landscape that is clear and will never, ever again be doubted. These are usually in the form of "The Democratic Party is Doomed" and … Continue reading “Predicting the Political Future”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-plusposts"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":130507,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/04\/28\/why-gop-attempts-to-stop-trump-have-been-doomed.html","url_meta":{"origin":48104,"position":0},"title":"Why GOP attempts to stop Trump have been doomed","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 28-Apr-16 2:42pm","format":false,"excerpt":"In sum, given a choice between Trump's nutty narcissism and Cruz's smug sanctimony, the RNC and its politicos would just as soon stay home and hope the party doesn't take too much gas in the down-ticket races. John Boehner on Ted Cruz: 'Lucifer in the Flesh' Why hasn\u2019t the Texas\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10721,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2006\/11\/10\/ideology_vs_consensus_vs.html","url_meta":{"origin":48104,"position":1},"title":"Ideology vs. Consensus vs. Competency vs. Corruption","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 10-Nov-06 8:07am","format":false,"excerpt":"The post-mortems abound ... It's fascinating watching the debate going on within the GOP about who \"lost\" the election. Everyone has their own axe to grind in this, and the...","rel":"","context":"In "Elections 2006"","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2006","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2006"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19187,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2010\/11\/13\/unblogged-bits-sat-13-nov-10-2231.html","url_meta":{"origin":48104,"position":2},"title":"Unblogged Bits (Sat. 13-Nov-10 2231)","author":"***Dave","date":"Sat 13-Nov-10 10:31pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Links (most recent first) that caught my eye, but did not warrant full-blown blog entries .... Enjoy Getting Groped at Security Before You Fly this Holiday Season Courtesy of the TSA! - I'm seriously considering what I want to do when we travel at Christmas. If Other Industries Were As\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Potpourri"","block_context":{"text":"Potpourri","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/potpourri"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":40775,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2014\/01\/12\/doomed-2.html","url_meta":{"origin":48104,"position":3},"title":"Doomed!","author":"***Dave","date":"Sun 12-Jan-14 2:04pm","format":false,"excerpt":"I have put up our #Broncos flag in front of the house, thus clearly dooming our team in today's game. \ufeff View this post on Google+","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5807,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2004\/07\/15\/christian_natio.html","url_meta":{"origin":48104,"position":4},"title":"“Christian nation”","author":"***Dave","date":"Thu 15-Jul-04 8:13am","format":false,"excerpt":"The Texas GOP has included a plank in their state party platform that the US is \"a Christian nation.\" That's just swell, guys. While it's true that, numerically, Christians are...","rel":"","context":"In "Church & State"","block_context":{"text":"Church & State","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/church-state"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":138382,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2019\/03\/22\/election-cycle-or-just-another-opportunity-for-political-junk-mail.html","url_meta":{"origin":48104,"position":5},"title":"Election cycle, or just another opportunity for political junk mail?","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 22-Mar-19 10:49pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Yes!","rel":"","context":"In "~Tweets"","block_context":{"text":"~Tweets","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/tweets"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Capture.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Capture.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Capture.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48104"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48104\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}