{"id":6195,"date":"2004-04-29T07:19:02","date_gmt":"2004-04-29T14:19:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/2004\/04\/29\/scenarios.html"},"modified":"2004-04-29T07:19:02","modified_gmt":"2004-04-29T14:19:02","slug":"scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2004\/04\/29\/scenarios.html","title":{"rendered":"Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"

Scott <\/a>quotes a Robert Reich column on the coming American Apocalypse <\/a>if the Bushies get reelected. Freed from the bonds of having to win the next election, they all go mad, mad I tell you, and go on a war-and-civil-suppression spree that makes … well, that makes Germany in the 30s and 40s look like a piker. <\/p>\n

I don’t think that’s any more likely an apocalyptic vision than the idea that Kerry will turn over control of the US government to the UN, and that wild bands of naked lesbian witches will be allowed to sacrifice white baby boys on alters made of crushed SUVs, the gas-guzzlers’ disarmed owners having already been strung up by … well, you get the idea. It’s the same sort of partisan paranoia that had folks seriously asserting that Clinton would use Y2K to declare martial law <\/a>and take over the country forever. They even had sightings of all those black helicopters, and descriptions of the new Domestic Stormtroopers uniforms and everything. And when Y2K didn’t produce a coup by the Clintonistas, well, it was then all a big trick to get things ready <\/i>for the inevitable coup<\/a> …<\/p>\n

To my mind, there are two more interesting (and realistic) election questions, short- and long-term:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Who will Kerry choose as a running mate? And how will that choice impact how people see him as a candidate?\n

    In some ways, Kerry’s at a bad disadvantage for having won the nomination so quickly. True, he’s not being beat up daily by Dem rivals. But even though the party has (ostensibly) rallied behind him, he’s still only the “presumptive nominee,” and now is sitting out there by his lonesome. He has some congressional allies and party flacks who will stump for him, but his campaign hasn’t really been able to take off yet, because he’s just one man.<\/p>\n

    This is why premature crowing by some conservatives about how Bush has this locked up is wishful thinking at best, just as it was when Kerry’s polling numbers were stronger than Bush’s a few months back, and the Dems were crowing about how they <\/i>had things locked up. Anything can happen between now and November, domestically and internationally, that could push the electorate one way or the other. When the Dems were actively in the primary cycle, their general beating-up of one another paled in comparison to their universal criticism of Bush — and Bush’s numbers went down. Now that Kerry (despite all the air time being given him) is on his own, and his <\/i>numbers are sinking. <\/p>\n

    Because it’s not just face time that has an impact, but the illusion of consensus. If one person says something five times, we begin to tune it out. If five people say it once, we think, “Hey, if they all <\/i>believe that, there must be something to it.”<\/p>\n

    So one normally trivial — but this time crucial — step will be the selection of a VP candidate by Kerry. As Kerry’s running mate, the VP will be yet another voice, and one who can be the “attack dog” in the campaign without making Kerry look either nasty or whiny (which is always a danger for presidential candidates, and for Kerry more than most). It will double the number of candidates “on message” before the news. And it will add another dimension to Kerry’s candidacy — which is already looking a bit shopworn, grand oratorical stylings notwithstanding.<\/p>\n

    And, let’s face it, the Dems can certainly come up with someone better (or at least more personable) than Dick Cheney. Which brings us to …<\/p>\n

  2. Assuming Bush wins (and assuming we’re not all working in death camps as slave laborers in a Choking Smoke Factory to poison the planet by ’08), who in the GOP is lined up to run for that party in the next election? No Republican congressional leaders stand out. Cheney, even if he survives that long, has the popular appeal of Attila the Hun. I don’t see any of the current administration being ready for it by ’08, though both Powell and Rice are possibilities in ’12 (assuming they don’t get tapped as VP before then).<\/p>\n

    Some new star may become visible in the hypothetical Bush second term, and certainly potential candidates in the Senate and Governors’ Mansions of the nation will start to emerge before then. But at the moment, there’s pretty much nobody on the horizon. Heck, even for those in the Evil Dynastic Conspiracy Biz, Jeb would probably have to wait at least until ’12 for a run, and that’s a long time … <\/ol>\n<\/p>\n

    And that’s where it all comes back around to the initial essay. Because the election cycle never actually ends, and if the Neo-Con Mad Dogs and Religious Right Mullah-Wannabes somehow think (or are thought to think) that a Bush re-election gives them carte blanche<\/i>, there are quite a few House Representatives who do <\/i>face another election in two years. Presidential “mandates” are extraordinarily short-lived beasts, and a second term mandate tends to become a lame duck presidency with startling speed. And as much as I dislike the same party dominating the White House and Capitol Hill, such unity is rarely as monolithic as it looks on paper.<\/p>\n

    Of course, if the whole election process is then deviously short-circuited, then you could, perhaps, argue that the Bad Guys could stay in office forever (once they ditch hapless dupe<\/s> evil mastermind Dubya, assuming the Constitution doesn’t get amended or suspended or tossed out). But that all presupposes a quick, powerful, and effective conspiracy, all this from an administration that evidently wasn’t “clever” enough to plant <\/i>WMD evidence, or blackmail <\/i>the French and German leadership into going along on Iraq (despite there being plenty of dirt to do so), or simply assassinate <\/i>intransigent Middle Eastern foreign leaders until they were all willing to sell oil to Haliburton and Enron and Exxon for $5\/barrel. <\/p>\n

    I don’t buy it, any more than I bought the black\/blue\/white helicopters and UN takeover of a disarmed US on 1 January 2000. Conspiracy Theories and Impending Doom-saying rarely accomplish more than fear mongering. And I seem to recall that used to be the charge that Bush’s opponents <\/i>used to make about him<\/i>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Scott quotes a Robert Reich column on the coming American Apocalypse if the Bushies get reelected. Freed from the bonds of having to win the next election, they all go…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics-law"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":25208,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2012\/01\/08\/public-good-that-sounds-like-communism-to-me.html","url_meta":{"origin":6195,"position":0},"title":"Public Good? That sounds like Communism to me!","author":"***Dave","date":"Sun 8-Jan-12 1:32pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Yes, once upon a time we at least paid lip service to the idea that public spending helped everyone -- even the well-to-do (from direct benefits, from enhancing markets, from providing more educated and healthy workforces). Today, we instead have Us against Them battles, often orchestrated by those at the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":136334,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2018\/05\/09\/standing-together.html","url_meta":{"origin":6195,"position":1},"title":"Standing Together","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 9-May-18 7:04am","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RBReich\/status\/994088255330115585 https:\/\/twitter.com\/18965459\/status\/994113544500097024 Robert Reich: \"International cooperation is an opportunity to promote peace and stability -- a win-win proposition. But Trump views cooperation as dfeat. It is a dangerous zero-sum logic that will only isolate American from the rest of the world.\" We are stronger standing together than fighting to be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~Tweets"","block_context":{"text":"~Tweets","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/tweets"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/Trump-contemplative.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":131546,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/09\/14\/if-youre-wont-be-an-american-company-you-arent-an-american-company.html","url_meta":{"origin":6195,"position":2},"title":"If you're won't be an American company, you aren't an American Company","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 14-Sep-16 10:27pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Companies that have been traditionally American but have either sheltered their profits overseas or have moved their HQs to other countries to theoretically reduce their tax burdens ... well, duh, shouldn't be treated as American companies any more. That includes not being part of \"Buy American\" campaigns for the government,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20716,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2011\/04\/11\/unblogged-bits-mon-11-apr-11-2330.html","url_meta":{"origin":6195,"position":3},"title":"Unblogged Bits (Mon. 11-Apr-11 2330)","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 11-Apr-11 11:30pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Links (most recent first) that caught my eye, but did not warrant full-blown blog entries .... Paul Ryan and Ayn Rand: A Love Affair Against the Common Good - One would think the conflict between Rand and Christianity would get as much play on the Right as the love affair\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Animation \/ Cartoons"","block_context":{"text":"Animation \/ Cartoons","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/media\/media-cartoons"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1089,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2001\/10\/17\/blaming_america.html","url_meta":{"origin":6195,"position":4},"title":"Blaming America","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 17-Oct-01 7:54pm","format":false,"excerpt":"Some quotes from Jonathan Alter's \"Between the Lines\" column in the 15 October issue of Newsweek. (Yes, I'm sure it's on-line somewhere. Consider that an exercise for the reader.) 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As such, it lures the unsuspecting into thinking nothing whatever should be done to change what people are paid, because nothing can be done.'It's also invidious\u00a0because it values people based on the money they earn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6195\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}