{"id":6235,"date":"2004-10-05T06:28:47","date_gmt":"2004-10-05T13:28:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/2004\/10\/05\/the-next-thing.html"},"modified":"2004-10-05T06:28:47","modified_gmt":"2004-10-05T13:28:47","slug":"the_next_thing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2004\/10\/05\/the_next_thing.html","title":{"rendered":"The Next Thing"},"content":{"rendered":"

I mistrust technology trend estimates, because they are so often off-course and driven by the pundit’s desires and the need to be on the Next Big Thing. (I feel the same way about political polls, for analogous reasons. But I digress.) That said, I keep reading more and more articles like this about how Micro$oft is in big trouble with IE, and how Firefox (as an example and in particular) is picking up its defectors<\/a>. And not just in “Mozilla Gazzette” or “Microsoft Haters Journal,” but in mainstream trades.<\/p>\n

So what does this mean for the majority of Windows users, who aren’t even on Windows XP? Microsoft officials have said these users must upgrade to Windows XP Service Pack 2<\/a> to gain the new security and capability improvements in IE.<\/p>\n

I think Microsoft has it at least partially right. A lot of users will decide they want improved features and increased security in their Web browser, and they will decide to upgrade — but not to Windows XP SP 2.<\/p>\n

We’ve already seen the beginning trickle of users moving away from IE: For the first time in years, IE’s market share has dropped slightly<\/a>. But I predict that this trickle will soon become a full-fledged torrent. In fact, I fully expect that, a year from now, IE’s market share will be below 75 percent. (Check me on that in October 2005.) And that’s being conservative because this would be a smaller drop than the Netscape browser ever took once it began to lose share. (And Netscape the company never did anything as stupid as telling users they could get new features only by using one operating system.)<\/p>\n

More important, the writer gives some anecdotal evidence that this is not just geeks preaching to geeks, but that the word about Firefox and other browsers is leaching out to mainstream users.<\/p>\n

Should be interesting to see what happens. I’ll know it’s arrived when my folks ask to have it installed on their <\/em>PC …<\/p>\n

(via adot<\/a>)<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I mistrust technology trend estimates, because they are so often off-course and driven by the pundit’s desires and the need to be on the Next Big Thing. (I feel the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[47],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-my-computer"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9477,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2006\/06\/28\/how_microoft_wi.html","url_meta":{"origin":6235,"position":0},"title":"How Micro$oft will encourage upgrades to Windows Vista","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 28-Jun-06 4:39pm","format":false,"excerpt":"By slowly but surely decertifying all valid Windows XP licenses, through its new Windows Genuine Advantage (WGA)program.\u00a0 This system is now required if you want to download any security...","rel":"","context":"In "Big Business"","block_context":{"text":"Big Business","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/big-business"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7520,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2005\/02\/15\/the_fud_factor.html","url_meta":{"origin":6235,"position":1},"title":"The FUD Factor","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 15-Feb-05 1:03pm","format":false,"excerpt":"I like Firefox a lot, but I'll be the first to admit that some FF zealots sound a lot like -- well, Mac zealots, or sports team zealots, or TV...","rel":"","context":"In "My Computer"","block_context":{"text":"My Computer","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/my-computer"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11980,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2007\/12\/19\/making_the_upgrade.html","url_meta":{"origin":6235,"position":2},"title":"Making the upgrade","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 19-Dec-07 7:15am","format":false,"excerpt":"A great review on upgrading from Vista to Windows XP. To be honest there is only one conclusion to be made; Microsoft has really outdone themselves in delivering a brand...","rel":"","context":"In "Hi-Tech"","block_context":{"text":"Hi-Tech","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/hi-tech"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8690,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2005\/09\/06\/the_disaster_of.html","url_meta":{"origin":6235,"position":3},"title":"The disaster of the browser wars","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 6-Sep-05 1:14pm","format":false,"excerpt":"For those who shrug off the browser competition between IE and Firefox and Opera and Safari and the like as simply matters of taste, or overblown rhetoric in search of...","rel":"","context":"In "Hi-Tech"","block_context":{"text":"Hi-Tech","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/hi-tech"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10281,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2007\/02\/28\/the_history_of_minesweepe.html","url_meta":{"origin":6235,"position":4},"title":"The History of “Minesweeper”","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 28-Feb-07 8:21am","format":false,"excerpt":"I've never found it a particularly engaging, but here's a history of the Windows solitaire game, \"Minesweeper.\" The Minesweeper that we all know and love was created by Robert Donner...","rel":"","context":"In "Gaming"","block_context":{"text":"Gaming","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/gaming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":44256,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2014\/08\/08\/forcing-ie-upgrades.html","url_meta":{"origin":6235,"position":5},"title":"Forcing IE upgrades","author":"***Dave","date":"Fri 8-Aug-14 8:52am","format":false,"excerpt":"On the one hand, this sounds like a good policy change from Microsoft.'As we note each month, while the majority of Chrome and Firefox users are all using the newest version of those browsers, Internet Explorer has a large user base that's using old versions. 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