I know it is rank superstition, but I have been very, very, very reluctant to express my predictions for this particular election — since I am certain that as soon as I do so, I will be grossly disappointed at every turn.<\/p>\n
That said, I think it pretty likely that the Democrats will retake the House of Representatives. To my mind, that counterbalance will be more than sufficient to put the brakes on a lot of the current Administratoin’s shenanigans. The chances of taking the Senate are much more slender, and I suspect (though hope otherwise) that the GOP will hold onto that chamber, barely.<\/p>\n
To the extent that the Dems succeed, it will still be by a fragile majority, and the result of some election year “throw the bums out” mentality and scandals that cannot be counted on for 2008. The Dems will need to solidify their hold by showing that they are the party of something other than Anyone But Bush — showing that they can lead, not just mill about and throw rocks at the windows. <\/p>\n
And it’s worth noting that even that fragile majority may not hold together on all issues. A lot of the Dems have been running toward the middle and even beyond. It can’t be assumed that the traditional liberal agenda will somehow be unanimously pursued, party loyalty or not. And, of course, regardless, Bush still holds the executive and will for another two years.<\/p>\n
It will be interesting to see if the Dems maintain or escalate the partisan processes that the GOP themselves escalated — the exclusion of minority involvement in the legislative process or paying even lip service to compromise and bipartisanship. I hope the Dems are better than the GOP in that way, even if the temptation to go the eye-for-an-eye route is a strong one. <\/p>\n
And the GOP? It depends, to some degree. If fully out of power in the legislature, they become the opposition, and can more afford to simply shill for the White House. They can also squawk hypocritically over being left out of the process.<\/p>\n
If they do retain power in the Senate, or even [insert conspiracy theory here] both houses, what’s the next step for the GOP? Do they grab while the grabbing is good, suddenly aware of their political mortality and realizing that if they’re going to get an agenda through, it had better be soon? Will they delusionally take any sort of minimal victory as a declaration of unbridled support from the people? Or will they accept this squeaker as a lesson learned, a wake-up call, a reminder that
\n2008 is just a couple of years down the line, and that they’d best clean up their act and broaden their base if they want to lead in the future?<\/p>\n
Regardless, neither side is going to have a “mandate” — and that’s probably just as well. The electorate is tired of what the GOP has been doing for the last decade, but they don’t necessarily expectthe Dems to do much better. If both parties are smart, they’ll work on building up trust in themselves. If they’re both dumb, they’ll continue the partisan knife-fighting of (especially) the past twenty-five years and turn off all but the most rabid of their supporters.<\/p>\n
I wait with bated breath.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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In my opinion, government works...","rel":"","context":"In "Elections 2006"","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2006","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2006"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":137426,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2018\/11\/06\/the-2018-election-the-national-perspective.html","url_meta":{"origin":9751,"position":1},"title":"The 2018 Election: The National Perspective","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 6-Nov-18 11:42pm","format":false,"excerpt":"(As of 11:42pm MST) I wish it had been more of a Blue Wave, but ... it was enough for government work, so to speak. The big news of the night is the Dems taking back the House majority, by enough of a margin to hold together in most cases.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Untitled.15414375785B15D.pngimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Untitled.15414375785B15D.pngimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Untitled.15414375785B15D.pngimgmax%3D660.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":130578,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2016\/05\/03\/will-the-nevertrumpers-remain-nevertrumpy.html","url_meta":{"origin":9751,"position":2},"title":"Will the NeverTrumpers remain NeverTrumpy?","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 3-May-16 8:24pm","format":false,"excerpt":"There are at least a few that are making that noise. Will that hold up? Will how the polling goes make a difference? Will who the Dems end up fielding make a difference? Interesting to watch how the #NeverTrump movement goes. After Trump\u2019s Indiana Win, GOP Loyalists Prepare for End\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":133125,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2017\/03\/22\/gop-leader-pundit-who-blamed-dems-for-voter-fraud-charged-with-voter-fraud.html","url_meta":{"origin":9751,"position":3},"title":"GOP leader, pundit, who blamed Dems for voter fraud, charged with voter fraud","author":"***Dave","date":"Wed 22-Mar-17 10:42am","format":false,"excerpt":"And he's a Colorado fellow as well, a host of a conservative talk show, and chair of the Colorado GOP from 1997 to 1999. In October he had a show lambasting voter fraud, and noting that he only knew of cases where it had been done by Democrats.And he's now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "~PlusPosts"","block_context":{"text":"~PlusPosts","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/blogging\/plusposts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6750,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2005\/01\/10\/principles_vs_p.html","url_meta":{"origin":9751,"position":4},"title":"Principles vs. Pragmatism","author":"***Dave","date":"Mon 10-Jan-05 8:39am","format":false,"excerpt":"In the aftermath of Election 2004, as endless pundits and pols consider why the Dems lost -- especially against a candidate that they thought should be easy pickings -- the...","rel":"","context":"In "Elections 2004"","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2004","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2004"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19079,"url":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/2010\/11\/02\/election-potpourri.html","url_meta":{"origin":9751,"position":5},"title":"Election Potpourri","author":"***Dave","date":"Tue 2-Nov-10 10:53pm","format":false,"excerpt":"I am still trying to figure out why Kentucky vote Rand Paul (R\/TP) as their new Senator. How he will represent the people of Kentucky remains a mystery to me. On the other hand, it looks like we won't have any (known) SS war re-enactors in Congress this year, nor\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Elections 2010"","block_context":{"text":"Elections 2010","link":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/category\/politics-law\/elections-2010"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/vote.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9751\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hill-kleerup.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}