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Swing State HELL

Okay, I'll admit, Ohio is probably getting it a little bit worse than Colorado.  Campaign ads are only taking up half the slots on the prime time TV shows. Christmas catalogs arriving each day still barely manage to outweigh the campaign flyers. And I think there was only one presidential candidate at a time in state here this past weekend …

… though how they manage to be in four or five places simultaneously has me deeply, deeply worried. Intrigued, but worried.

Reshared post from +The Daily Show

"These Ohio political ads, they sap your youth, they drain your vigor." http://on.cc.com/TFKAOJ

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Sinister, or just sloppy?

Combining the TV news report with the response from Rep. Flake's office, it seems one of two things happened:

A. Rep. Flake's office not only has an erroneous set of information about what households have Republicans in them, but what polling places go with what addresses,

or …

B. Rep. Flake's office intentionally called Democrats and tried to get them to go to the wrong polling place.

(I suppose another option is C, someone pretending to be Rep. Flake's office performed (B), either in support of him, or to create a scandal).

Unfortunately, we will likely never know.

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Arizona GOP Senate Candidate Robocalls Democrats And Tells Them To Vote In The Wrong Place
According to a report by Phoenix, Arizona’s NBC affiliate, Rep. Jeff Flake’s (R-AZ) U.S. Senate campaign called Democratic voters telling them to vote in the wrong precinct — in some cases as much as …

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It's the end of Western Civilization as we know it!

Short form of Paul Ryan's statements on "a conference call with evangelical Christians":

“It’s a dangerous path. It’s a path that grows government, restricts freedom and liberty and compromises those values, those Judeo-Christian, Western civilization values that made us such a great and exceptional nation in the first place."

Ryan's folks later clarified he was talking about "issues like religious liberty and Obamacare". Because, remember, once you start mandating that insurance plans have to include no-co-pay contraceptive coverage for those who decide to make use of it, the next thing you know we'll all be speaking Chinese or something. 

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Ryan Says Obama Policies Threaten ‘Judeo-Christian’ Values
Representative Paul D. Ryan, in a conference call with evangelical Christians on Sunday night, said President Obama’s policies would take the nation down a “dangerous path.”

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Are we there yet?

From today's XKCD (http://xkcd.com/1130/), "Poll Watching". (Hover caption: "The choices we make Tuesday could have MASSIVE and PERMANENT effects on Nate Silver's blog!")

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The Battleground States, and what to do about them

An interesting look at how fast the whole "battleground" / "swing" focus on just a handful of states has happened.

The problem is not, though, the Electoral College system itself.  That's been around a couple of hundred years.  My question would be — why have so many states become so homogeneous in political make-up that they are no longer "battlegrounds".

Note that this doesn't just affect the presidential elections, either.  Statewide offices and Senators both are directly impacted by solid majorities in a state for one party or the other (though there are occasional exceptions, e.g., Scott Brown winning the replacement race in Massachusetts). And that has a role as well on statewide ballot propositions, and the majorities of House delegations …

But as you dig in closer, a lot of that homogeneity starts to vanish.  You get local state legislatures that swing one way, then another. Personality begins to play a role.  Politics becomes more local.  Not that it's easy for a Democratic politician in Alabama, or a Republican one in Massachusetts … but there are exceptions, and opportunities.

So what makes the aggregate, in the presidential race, so seemingly monolithic that it drives all the advertising dollars and campaigning to a handful of locations?

Embedded Link

The Vanishing Electoral Battleground
The shrinking electoral battleground has altered the nature of American self-governance.

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Coming up with excuses for a Romney loss

Honestly, it's way too early to be calling the 2012 presidential race, in my opinion.  Yeah, the polling shows at least an Electoral College victory for Obama, but that's still contingent on some swing stats, voter turn-out, voter suppression concerns, etc.

It ain't over until it's over.

The GOP, though, seems to be already laying the groundwork to explain why all their pundit calls for a Big Romney Victory will turn out to be busts.  And the reason: Hurricane Sandy blunted the "Ro-mentum".  Never mind that any post-Denver debate surge by Romney had flattened well before — that's their story and they're sticking to it.

Except it's spun even more than just that.  Sandy became an excuse for a "blackout" of campaign news by the (liberal) media, thus Romney's campaigning about the economy, jobs, etc., etc., was all hidden away from the public.  Plus, Obama, rather than having to face charges about what a failure he's been, was able to play the role of "Comforter-in-Chief" and get sympathy for, um, all the sympathy he was giving.

(Side note here on irony if a hurricane that may well have been made worse through global climate change played an role in the defeat of the party that's led the rhetorical fight on denying there's any global climate change.)

The GOP isn't officially conceding defeat, of course. But that some of them are already making a lot of excuses in advance for Romney not winning is … interesting, to say the least.  

Reshared post from +Talking Points Memo

In the event Obama wins on Tuesday, Republicans have already found their scapegoat: Hurricane Sandy.

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Republicans Lay The Groundwork To Blame Hurricane Sandy If Romney Loses
In the event that President Obama wins reelection on Tuesday, Republicans have already found their scapegoat: Hurricane Sandy.

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Waiting to vote

When we see long lines of folks queued up to vote in Third World nations, we applaud their civic spirit, we admire their zeal to have their voices heard, we celebrate their devotion to democracy.

When it happens in Florida, the GOP secretary of state tries to figure out excuses not to extend early voting hours.

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After Republicans Restrict Early Voting Hours, Floridians Wait More Than 6 Hours To Vote
Last year, Florida’s Republican dominated legislature “rolled back the number of early-voting days from a maximum of 14 days to eight days.” The result? Floridians are finding it much more difficult t…

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“Because Joe Miklosi LOVES MURDERERS … especially YOURS!”

Continuing the pretty consistent peppering of flyers (and, apparently, broadcast ads, though I don’t listen/watch those) from a worried Mike Coffman against his Democratic challenger Joe Miklosi, we get a doozy here, as a follow-up to previous ad campaigns:

JOE MIKLOSI
VOTED AGAINST KATIE’S LAW.

Sometimes, a single strand of evidence stands between justice serviced and a criminal set free.

[…] Miklosi voted against Katie’s Law, which expands the use of DNA to arrest and convict criminals, including rapists, murderers, and child predators.

Victims deserve justice — these violent criminals deserve punishment.

Miklosi voted against helping law enforcement solve violent and sexual assault crimes in Colorado.

JOE MIKLOSI.

Leaving dangerous criminals on our streets.
Denying justice to victims of violent crimes.

Why, Joe?! WHYYYYY???!!!

There’s also a Mike Coffman TV ad on the theme.

Why, Joe?! WHY DID YOU SIDE WITH THE PREDATORS? AND (just as bad, apparently) THEIR LAWYERS?

Or, more importantly, what’s this really all about?

Katie’s Law style bills (no, it’s not original to Colorado — it’s named after Katie Sepich) encourage building up DNA sample libraries, to be used to catch criminals when they later commit a crime. Not a bad idea, on the face of it. Laws like this do have some use. They have been used to find guilty parties of later crimes who may not have been found.

The particular version of Katie’s Law that came up for a vote, Senate Bill 09-241, and which Miklosi voted against in 2009 would have called for anyone arrested for, or arrested in investigation for, a felony in Colorado to submit a DNA sample, to be used in later crime enforcement.

Not anyone convicted of a felony, mind you.  Not anyone apprehended by the police, tried, and found to be a felon.

Just anyone picked up and arrested on a felony charge, or in investigation of a felony charge.

People not convicted of any crime.

So, is that a good idea?  If so, then why not have every Colorado citizen be required to submit a DNA sample. After all, that would provide the maximum protection for people in case of even first-time crimes.  And since we’re already talking about requiring samples from folks not yet convicted of a crime, let’s just make it everyone?

I’m not saying that’s necessarily a bad idea, though I suspect net-net it probably is.  It’s just that there’s very little ethical difference in doing it, and all the outraged huffing and puffing that some would do over the proposal, while not seeing that anyone, innocent or guilty, can be arrested, strikes me as more than a little hypocritical.

Note that the proposal did provide for DNA records to be expunged if all the felony charges were dropped or the presumed-innocent accused was acquitted. Of course, they would have to actually apply to have the records expunged. I feel, myself, uncomfortable with collecting such samples upon arrest (when a person is still presumed innocent) than after conviction (when he or she is not).

Miklosi doesn’t directly address that in explaining his vote against the final version of the bill (which eventually passed).  He says he felt the law couldn’t stand up to constitutional scrutiny. While normally one might argue that it’s up to the courts to decide that (and it is), that could mean that someone arrested and convicted based on Katie’s Law evidence could have their conviction overturned and be set free on the “technicality.”  Y’know, the way the “predators and their lawyers” prefer.

He did vote in favor of a different form of the SB 09-241 the day before (he was one of four legislators to change their vote between the two).

(A federal appeals court, two weeks later, did uphold the constitutionality of such laws, but that sort of precedent had not yet been set.)

Miklosi also points out that Coffman himself voted against a federal Katie’s Law bill, which would have provided federal assistance to states to help them set up a DNA registry.  He was one of 32 Republicans to vote Nay; the bill ended up passing on a large bipartisan vote. Apparently, to use the same argument as the ad, Coffman would rather “leave dangerous criminals on our streets” if the alternatives will cost federal taxpayer money.

My bottom line: I understand Miklosi’s concerns over this particular law, esp. since it hadn’t been tested in a federal court yet. One might criticize that judgment call, but to paint it all in these sorts of apocalyptic “MIKLOSI WANTS YOUR LOVED ONES DEAD AND THEIR KILLER TO GO FREE AND DANCE ON THEIR GRAVES!” tones is utterly ludicrous, and reflects more on Coffman than on Miklosi.

Pundits and Predictions

1. Every pundit seems to have a strong idea that Their Candidate Will Win.

2. Some substantial proportion of those pundits (let's say 50%) will turn out to be, in fact, dead wrong.

3. All the wrong pundits will have plentiful reasons why their predictions were wrong, ranging from it being the fault of the electorate (poor turnout, lying to pollsters, flighty whimsy) to it being the fault of sinister forces (voter suppression, voter fraud) to it simply being One Of Those Things.

4. Not one single pundit will lose their job, stop being invited to news shows, or be too shamed to have a strong idea in 2016 that Their Candidate Will Win.

Embedded Link

The Volokh Conspiracy » Pundits and Predictions
I agree with most of Ilya’s post below on why political pundits are overconfident that their side will win elections. I would just add an even more cynical point: A lot of political pundits are overco…

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Tweets from 2012-11-01

  • Crikey, it's only Thursday? #
  • Hmmm. Getting to be time to start carrying around my writing idea notebook all the time again. #awakeangrymuse #NaNoWriMo #
  • RT @pourmecoffee: After he loses, Romney should write a "What I Really Believed" article just for those trying to figure it all out – li … #
  • RT @ronmarz: Character lesson: George Lucas is giving $4 billion to education. Donald Trump is holding $5 million hostage in pathetic bi … #
  • Doing Write: Successful NaNoWriMo Day 1! Woot! Link #nanowrimo #

Another Romney supporter explains how you should vote

Because if you can't trust Montgomery Burns, who can you trust?

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Yeah, Ohio's going to be a mess this election year. Again

Swell.

Embedded Link

Ohio’s Ballot Woes Could Delay Election Results For Weeks
Pollsters and pundits have trained their eyes on Ohio, where President Obama maintains a narrow lead over Mitt Romney just days before the election. According to exit polls, Obama’s lead is even stron…

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There are two things that could win this election for Romney

And they both have to do with the number of voters that turn out for Obama.

If overall Democratic turn-out is low, especially in the "swing states" (not as fun a thing to be as it sounds), then Obama will lose.

On the other hand, if enough Democratic voters can be kept away from the polls — by, for example, Republican poll watchers being trained to mislead voters or election officials about what the actual requirements are to vote (such as insisting on photo IDs in states where photo IDs are not required), then they can make the Democratic turn-out lower.

But, of course, that would be cheating.

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EXCLUSIVE: Romney Campaign Incorrectly Trains Iowa Poll Watchers To Check For Photo ID
Earlier this week, ThinkProgress released internal documents from the Romney campaign detailing how it is training poll watchers to mislead voters in Wisconsin. Now, according to new documents, Wiscon…

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A direct appeal for politics over principle

No, really. Here's the argument, right from the ad:

"You don’t have to agree with everything he says, but you can be sure, in the Senate, Akin will vote for Romney’s policies."

In case anyone wondered whether the RNC and the NRSC initially abandoned Akin, not because they found his "Legitimate Rape" comments beyond the Pale (as they claimed) but because they thought he was unelectable, the answer is definitely the latter — as one or the other is now apparently funding last-second ad buys to try and get Akin into the Senate, and doing so, not because he's a neat guy and a leader we can be proud of, but purely to try and get control of the Senate for the Republicans.

I won't claim that the GOP is officially misogynistic, but their willingness to overlook some pretty awful things on behalf of WINNING is, itself, telling.

Reshared post from +Zachary Cook

Apparently, "Legitimate Rape" is no longer offensive after a couple months. The Republican obsession with misogyny & rape is one of the most disturbing things in our political climate today.

#waronwomen #MOSen  

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Is The NRSC Sneaking In Support For Akin Before The Buzzer?
The National Republican Senatorial Committee may be changing its tune on Todd Akin.

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What will a second Obama term look like?

Probably not much different than the first.  The Dems will have a thin (and non-lockstep) majority in the Senate, most likely, and the GOP will continue to hold the House for at least two years (more likely four), and the fact is that Obama is pretty much of a centrist, no matter how much the GOP keep trying to make him out as a crypto-Marxist.

I expect some movement around the edges on social issues, some "Grand Compromise" deficit reduction plans that will give the GOP 80% of what they want in return for not destroying the economy as much, and some other "historic legacy" gestures that won't likely mean all that much.  The ACA will go into effect, make some things better, not improve some other things. And the GOP pundits will still make it all out as being The End of Western Civilization As We Know It.

It's weak tea at best, though it's notably better than a Romney Administration would likely be (so VOTE!), but nothing anyone should get excited (or agitated) about.

Embedded Link

Secret socialist or grand bargainer?
A second term would likely look familiar — and again depend upon how Obama chooses to deal with the GOP House

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Polling

The bad part of all the polling and surveys isn't the polling and surveys themselves, but the endless, endless nattering over them, in more earnest detail than even the sales folks for the survey companies could suggest with a straight face.

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Tweets from 2012-10-30

  • Note: The In-Laws, in the normal scheme of the universe, watch one thing on TV per year: the Rose Parade. #
  • RT @billbarol: I want to say this in a non-partisan fashion: I have never been so happy to see a presidential election cycle nearing its … #
  • RT @Popehat: Obnoxious commenters on your blog got you down? Use the old public speaking trick and imagine them in their underwear. The … #
  • Argh. Just realized that Disney now owns the Ewoks. #seriousdownside #

The thing I fear most about Romney winning the election

Well, not really, but my most proximate concern is the solid month or two (or forty) of gleeful, cackling, smug, overbearing, overreaching, rub-your-face-in-it triumphal glee from the more loathsome members of the Right. Your Limbaughs and your Bartons and your Dobsons and your Malkins and your Coulters and your Fischers and your Roves and your … well, you know the type.  Not everyone who votes Republican. But those guys (and gals) and their hyper-partisan ilk specifically. 

Yeah, lots of policy fears and all of that … but that's the part  I'd really hate ….

Conservative talk show radio host Rush Limbaugh speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington on February 28, 2009. (UPI Photo/Alexis C. Glenn) (Newscom TagID: upiphotos919371) [Photo via Newscom]

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Anyone else ready for this election to be over and done with?

Because I sure the heck am.

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Romney continues the misleading "Jeeps to China" campaign

I have to assume it's a desperation move on the Romney campaign's part — a last minute attempt to save Ohio by not just not retracting an identified falsehood (that Chrysler is moving its Jeep production to China), but actually expanding the a buy for an ad that implies the same thing.

– "Four Pinnocchios" – http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/4-pinocchios-for-mitt-romneys-misleading-ad-on-chrysler-and-china/2012/10/29/2a153a04-21d7-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html

– "Pants-on-Fire" – http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/30/mitt-romney/mitt-romney-obama-chrysler-sold-italians-china-ame/ 

http://www.gq.com/news-politics/blogs/death-race/2012/10/romneys-not-true-chrysler-ad-glad-were-back-to-2012-as-usual.html

– Ohio newspaper reactions – http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-morning-plum-romneys-jeep-to-china-lie-earns-brutal-headlines-in-ohio/2012/10/30/6ca63574-227e-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html

Embedded Link

Romney expands false Jeep-to-China ad campaign
Fact checks don’t chasten the campaign.

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