Category: Blogging & Internet

A look at some of the cognitive distortions that go into issues Americans have with the "American Dream" and why people are poor and how my problems are because of bad luck but their problems are because they're undeserving.

I was actually in conversation with someone today who exemplified this. All those "Medicaid people" with tats and hair extensions and (gasp) smartphones. They were all lazy takers, riding on the system, having "Medicaid babies" — piles of assumptions [1] without any consideration beyond knee-jerk reactions.

Which isn't to say that there aren't poor people who "game" the system, any less than there aren't rich people who "game" the system. Still, being poor is generally more complicated and less pleasant (and more expensive), than most folk who aren't poor realize. Even so, it remains a lot easier (cognitively and emotionally) to assume that those are poor are that way because they "earned" that misfortune.

Until it happens to us.

——

[1] Including, among others, that people on Medicaid are all "poor" people.

Why do we think poor people are poor because of their own bad choices? | US news | The Guardian

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On the surface, this looks like vintage Cruz — throwing a monkey wrench into the proceedings so he can score points amongst his followers (doubtless with an eye on a future run at the White House). There's a reason why Cruz is notoriously unpopular in the Senate, and these kind of shenanigans are it. Cruz considers it a win if he gets headlines, whether or not the party is damaged.

On other hand, the conspiracy theorist in me says, "Is this simply to make the Senate AHCA bill look better, by having those brave GOP Senators defend the public against Cruz' heartless efforts to segment the insurance pool and bankrupt people with pre-existing conditions.

That ignores the Senate bill giving permission to states to opt out essential health benefits in a way that will … well, segment the insurance pool and impact people with pre-existing conditions [1]. The difference is that the Senate bill lets the Senators' hands stay clean, rather than taking a direct hit for it as under the Cruz proposal.

I could easily see the GOP eager in this case to let Cruz grandstand, if it makes them look like heroes, and deflects opposition to the bill that they're putting through. Whether they can do that and get the bill passed is another question — but, at the very least, they would be able to blame Ted Cruz for Obamacare surviving.

GOP tensions rise over Cruz proposal

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Donald Trump on the "Meddling" in the 2016 Election:

❝ '"I think it was Russia, I think it could have been other countries," Trump said. "I won’t be specific." He added: "So it was Russia and it was probably others also, and that’s probably been going on for a long period of time." ❞

Translation: So no big, right? Yeah, Russia, sure, everyone knows that, but other countries, too, probably Chi-na and North Korea, and everyone does it, always have, always will, so it's not a big deal, amirite? Can we move on?

It will be interesting to see how long this particular rhetorical tack lasts. I mean, it's moderately more reality-based, so that's good, but it feels more like he's dismissing the matter than anything else, and I'm not sure folk are quite willing yet to just shrug and dismiss those crazy Russian hi-jinx.

(Oh, also, "pretty severe things" — I'm sure the North Koreans are shaking in their boots over that.)

Trump Weighs ‘Pretty Severe Things’ for North Korea Over Launch
President Donald Trump said he is contemplating some “pretty severe things” to retaliate against North Korea after it launched an intercontinental ballistic missile this week that brings it closer to being able to hit the U.S. mainland.

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The company spokesfolk did a little herp-derp, how could we possibly know that the antiquities field is full of dodgy people who steal things from archaeological sites, that we should actual verify the story they told us, and that wiring our money to multiple accounts and receiving the goods in multiple, small, misleadingly labeled shipments was a warning sign?

So one can either believe that the operators of one of the nation's largest craft and hobby retailers simply got in over their head when it came time to indulge their "Museum of the Bible" impulses, or that they knew exactly what they were doing, and simply got caught at it.

In any case, they'll be paying $3M for the privilege and turning the questioned $1.6M collection of unprovenanced artifacts back to Iraq. Though for a corporation that does $4B in revenue per year, that sting probably won't hurt too much.

More on the story:
— https://consumerist.com/2017/07/05/hobby-lobby-agrees-to-turn-over-thousands-of-ancient-iraqi-artifacts-that-were-smuggled-into-u-s/
— https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/07/hobby-lobby-smuggled-thousands-of-ancient-artifacts-out-of-iraq/532743/?utm_source=atlgp

Hobby Lobby fined $3 million for artifacts smuggled from Iraq
Hobby Lobby describes itself as a Christian business. It gained fame in a 2014 Supreme Court case challenging contraceptive coverage under the Affordable Care Act.

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The WaPo and New York Times [1] offer some consolidated fact-checking against GOP Senate and White House arguments against the ACA and in favor of their New, Improved AHCA insurance reform plans ("Now with 9% fewer people losing their insurance than the last version!").

From the NYT [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/us/politics/misleading-republican-claims-health-care.html] on
— whether the AHCA keeps the ACA's Medicaid expansion
— whether the AHCA actually increases Medicaid funding
— whether the AHCA will reduce middle-class taxes
— whether the ACA has led to doubling and tripling of premiums
— whether the ACA actually caused a gap in Medicaid coverage

From the WaPo [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/07/05/decoding-the-white-house-spin-on-obamacare-failures/]
— whether average premiums under the ACA are up 105%
— to what extent insurers are abandoning markets [2]
— how many people are dropping off of the exchanges
— how many people were penalized for not buying insurance
— how many people still don't have, or have dropped, their ACA coverage
— how much premiums have increased [3]
— whether the CBO overestimated how many people would be covered by the ACA

That's a lot of items, though the articles are themselves pretty concise (with plenty of linked backup). I'm posting them largely as reference for the future, as the assertions targeted by these items keep coming up again and again (often without detail), and being able to address them directly would be convenient.

—

[1] And, yes, I know, the cries of "Fake News!" ring out across the land. Now grow up. If there's a presented assertion of "fact" that's given there that you don't like or disagree with, then check it, just as they did these GOP statements. Don't just assume it's something made up because that's so much less work.

[2] I'd also recommend this article, talking about the perennial problem that highly rural markets have had in getting insurance company coverage, and how the AHCA will not improve that problem: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/29/upshot/theres-only-one-grocery-store-in-most-rural-areas-should-we-expect-two-health-insurers.html

[3] And I recommend this article on the latest-greatest GOP work-around for how to handle high-risk patients: by segmenting the insurance market, which inevitably leads to significantly higher premiums for sick people, whoever is paying them: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/upshot/ted-cruz-has-an-idea-for-how-to-cover-high-risk-patients.html

Five Misleading Republican Claims About Health Care – The New York Times
Republicans have misinformed Americans on the Senate health care bill’s impact in several areas and have exaggerated the Affordable Care Act’s problems.

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Assuming that our goal is a denuclearized Korean peninsula, it seems highly, highly unlikely. This is one of North Korea's existential goals, and they're going to pursue it no matter how many folk starve.

Assuming that our goal is a reunified (South-dominated) Korean peninsula, that's not going to happen, either. China is distinctly against a US ally on its borders, as much as it, too, dislikes a nuclear DPRK.

Assuming our goal is to bomb North Korea back to the Stone Age — well, yeah, we could) do that, but only if we don't massive casualties in North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, not to mention the international fall-out (literal, if the DPRK gets nukes onto a warhead … or simply smuggles devices into other countries).

I would feel a lot better that this won't end in rivers of blood if we didn't have our current President — but his predecessors haven't had much luck in actually accomplishing anything, either, not for long. There are no good options here, only bad one and worse ones, and we've never been a country (under any President, but particularly, I suspect, the present one) that's been any good at pursuing the least-worst option as policy.

Five Blunt Truths About the North Korea Crisis
The Trump strategy toward North Korea is failing. Then again, the Obama and Bush strategies failed, too — but here’s what might work.

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Okay, this is a panel I'm sorry I missed at the Denver Comic Con this year — almost all of the voice artists from the JL and JLU animateds reunited with Andrea Romano, and actually through a heavily abridged script reading of "Starcrossed." Too much fun.

Yeah, I'd be very, very happy to see Warner Bros. bring these cartoons back. They remain some of, if not the, best super-hero cartoons ever.

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Good morning, Donald! Hard to believe it's already Wednesday. Let's wrap up your Independence Day tweets and dive into the rest of the summer …

===

► Gas prices are the lowest in the U.S. in over ten years! I would like to see them go even lower. [1]

Alas, Donald, at the present it doesn't look like they will be going much lower, as wholesale gas prices have been creeping up [2]. On the other hand, that's probably good news for folk working in the oil industry.

Of course, chances are this is just a lead in for "we need to open up more shorelines and federal lands to oil exploration and production so we can pump more oil and drive gas prices down even further" policy from you. I hope you prove me wrong, Donald.

===

Your Social Media Minions tweeted about a Wall Street Journal article:

► 'Ivanka Trump Replies on Paid Family Leave' via @WSJ [5]

All I can say about the article, Donald, was that if it had been penned, word for word, by Hillary Clinton, the GOP would be climbing all over itself with shouts of "socialism" and "killing jobs" and "unfunded mandate on the states" and "tax & spend" and "European-style social meddling that will hurt small businesses and lead to a weaker economy." And you would have been calling her "Crazy Hillary" over it.

I'll be curious to see how much you actually push for this proposal. It was referenced in your budget bullets [6], and a more limited version was suggested by you during the campaign. I presume your daughter is actually chatting you up about it. It would be wildly popular, no matter that it's a government-paid program, and that might be enough to attract you into it. Or it may simply be used as a bargaining chip for other matters.

We'll see.

And all that said, gosh, wouldn't it be nice if we weren't the only G-20 country that had no paid family leave policy, even just a bottom-of-the-barrel one? Pull it off, Donald, and I might have to give you an honest round of applause.

===

► The United States made some of the worst Trade Deals in world history.Why should we continue these deals with countries that do not help us? [3P]

You know, Donald, you keep saying that, but we haven't actually seen much in the way of new trade deal negotiations. I mean, the rhetoric is fine, but let's see some actual action.

► Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter. So much for China working with us – but we had to give it a try! [4P]

We did?

I mean, since you got into office, you've been cajoling the Chinese about North Korea, and you've been reporting about all the fine meetings you've had with them and their promises of support. And now … well, looks like that was a bust.

What would you have said to President Obama shrugging his shoulders after China apparently shined us on, and saying, "we had to give it a try"? Yeah, that's kind of what I thought, Donald.

Oh, meanwhile, Russia and China are getting closer together in alliance regarding North Korea [7], since US/China policy has been so irregular (just in the last six months). And now they're both jointly condemning your saber-rattling as much as Kim's.

Maybe you can chat about it with Vladimir when you meet him in Germany.

===

Your Social Media Minions also tweeted about …

… your celebrating the Fourth with a "big crowd" of military families at the White House.
… a picture of the White House illuminated in Red, White, and Blue. [P]
… your trip to Poland and then Germany for the G-20 (where you'll have a little side tete-a-tete with Putin).

——

[1] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882327018070790144
[2] http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/03/news/economy/gas-prices/index.html
[3] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882558219285131265
[4] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/882560030884716544
[5] https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/882575289968201729, linked to article https://www.wsj.com/articles/paid-family-leave-is-a-good-national-policy-1499184292
[6] http://fortune.com/2017/05/19/trump-ivanka-paid-family-leave-budget/?iid=sr-link1
[7] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/05/trump-north-korea-strategy-china-russia

[P] So Presidential, they had to be on both @RealDonaldTrump and @POTUS.

Trump’s lack of a North Korea strategy is drawing China and Russia closer | Isaac Stone Fish | World news | The Guardian

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This is a much cleaner version than some pirated ones that were floating around right after Wonder Woman came out.

Two things of note:

1. There's a remarkable array of DC characters (heroes and villains) there in the broad shot — it's fuzzy, but some obvious ones to spot (beond the ore JL): Black Lightning, John Constantine, Atom, Batgirl, Braniac, Hawkman (and Hawkgirl), Shazam, Supergirl, Firestorm, Nightwing, Mongul, Harley, Joker, Luthor, Black Manta, Solomon Grundy.

2. Okay, I get it that these are the comic book versions of these character (it appears). But given you have a DCEU Aquaman that is already showing up in trailers and publicity stills, it might have made sense to include someone looking more like him here, rather than the blond-haired orange-and-green-garbed classic.

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Come the revolution, you now know the place to march with your torches and pitchforks.

Or, put another way, anyone who buys this house based on this ad deserves a major landslide next rainy season that sends it careening down into the mansion below (when nobody is at home to get hurt, of course).

Or, put another way, I strongly suspect that when my mom sells her LA area house, she won't be working through this particular agency.

This Red Band Trailer For A $100M House Makes Me Want To Be A Socialist
“We were inspired by Beyonce’s visual albums and wanted to do something really high art.”

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People who have extensively used Photobucket for hosting free photos of stuff (esp. stuff up for sale / auction on sites like eBay and Amazon and Etsy) have had a rather rude awakening. With minimal notice (it appears), Photobucket is now asking for a substantial annual subscription price to allow such sharing. The notice was subtle and recent enough that a lot of items out there are broken (and still more historic information that people were using Photobucket as an image service to drive are similarly broken).

On the one hand, lots of outrage going around, much of it deserved. A major change like that should have been handled far better by Photobucket, rather than coming across as something like ransomware. While making a move to this model would inevitably drive a lot of users away from the site, with proper explanation and engagement, it could have been a painful but doable part of changing their business model.

On the other hand, this does demonstrate the problem of relying on free third-party services — when they stop being free (or the third party goes away), it breaks the Internet. And that's not just with folk like Photobucket. People who were using Google's Picasa as a photo hosting service for third party sites (commercial or simply social) discovered that, one day, Google was not going to offer that service any more. Google handled it a lot better, but the bottom line is, on the Internet as much as in Real Life, not only is there no such thing as a free lunch, but even if you've paid for lunch, er, a service, it might go away in the future. The same is true for free URL-shortening services, or anything else of the sort.

Bitrotted links or changing business models — there are always ongoing threats to that immediate use of information or that archival data. Keeping alternatives and backups and so forth remains the only way to make sure you don't lose anything. But even if you don't lose the data, there's no such thing as a maintenance-free Internet presence.

Amazon and eBay images broken by Photobucket’s ‘ransom demand’ – BBC News
An image sharing site’s change of policy stops photos appearing on Amazon, eBay and Etsy.

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They're weird! They're cute! They're heavily poached! Here's a fun video all about them.

[h/t +Boing Boing]

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Because hiding performance data always improves performance! Or at least lets you pretend it's improved.

❝ Overall results of routine inspections at nuclear weapons bases, such as a "pass-fail" grade, had previously been publicly available. They are now off-limits. The change goes beyond the standard practice of withholding detailed information on the inspections. ❞

They were publicly available because that created public pressure (shaming, in essence) to address problems. As actually happened.

❝ [T]he problems that prompted the reviews three years ago weren't created by releasing inspection results. The problems were actual shortcomings in the nuclear force, including occasional poor performance, security lapses and flawed training, driven in part by underspending and weak leadership. The overall results of such inspections, minus security-sensitive details, used to be publicly available. They provided the initial basis for Associated Press reporting in 2013-2014 on missteps by the Air Force nuclear missile corps. ❞

Apparently the shaming worked so well, the Pentagon decided classify such inspection reports — even to the extent of not including any of the information (good or bad) be put in personnel records. Because that clearly won't let someone get away with problematic performance.

❝ Navy Capt. Greg Hicks, spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the added layer of secrecy was deemed necessary. "We are comfortable with the secrecy," Hicks said Monday, adding that it helps ensure that "as long as nuclear weapons exist, the U.S. will maintain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear stockpile." ❞

I feel much safer — don't you?

AP Exclusive: Security of US nukes now an official secret :: WRAL.com
The Pentagon has thrown a cloak of secrecy over assessments of the safety and security of its nuclear weapons operations, a part of the military with a history of periodic inspection failures and lapses in morale.

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