I think this is a mistake, both in absolute terms and political.
Gay marriage will be a “central” issue in the upcoming presidential election, and that will likely benefit Republicans, House Majority Leader Tom DeLay said Thursday.
“I think it will be central,” DeLay, R-Texas, told reporters before addressing the Knox County Republican Party’s annual Lincoln Day Dinner at Rothchild’s. “Every now and then, an issue that is central to who you are and what your world view is comes along.”
Americans “have been tolerant of homosexuality for years, but now it’s being stuffed down their throats and they don’t like it,” DeLay said. “They know it will undermine the very foundation of this society, will undermine our understanding of what families are. Polls tell us that over 70 percent of Americans believe that a marriage is between a man and a woman, no matter what you call it.”
I find the line “Americans have been tolerant of homosexuality for years” to be a bit disingenuous on DeLay’s part. But regardless …
Here’s a thought I have about the American people. They don’t like surprises or big changes. To that extent, DeLay is correct. If they feel something is being stuffed down their throats, they’ll rebel.
But the American people are also fundamentally fair, and, once they get over their surprise, they can get used to most anything. What will really get them torqued is feeling like they are being exploited, like they are being told what they feel and that their beliefs on an issue are being taken for granted — ultimately, that an attitude they no longer share is being “stuffed down their throats.”
Once the American people get the idea of gay marriage past the jaw-dropping stage, continuing to push against it is likely to provoke a sizeable backlash. The more that the GOP attempts to use this as a wedge issue, and to take a loud and righteous stand as The Party Against Gay Marriages (no matter how it’s dressed up as “traditional values”), the more they are liable to suddenly find themselves seen by the American people as The Party of Bigotry. It’s an image that it’s still struggling against after kneejerk opposition to the Kennedy-Johnson civil rights era (and the GOP’s embrace of conservative Dixiecrats). It’s an image that will be an embarrassment, and worse, in a decade or two.
If the GOP were politically savvy, they wouldn’t make a big deal about it. Oppose gay marriage, if that’s the ideological stand they want to take, sure. But low-key, regretfully but firmly. Americans like and respect quiet sincerity. Demagoguery and End-of-Civilization-as-We-Know-It Rhetoric will only, ultimately, turn folks off, especially once the American people get used to gay partnerships, civil unions, and, yes, even gay marriage, and begin to wonder what the hell the fuss was about, and why the GOP was ever so adamently opposed to it.
Or so I think.
(And, for what it’s worth, I think the Dems will do better with the issue with a similarly low-key campaign — though, frankly, the Dem presidential candidates have been as luke-warm on the whole matter as Bush as been luke-cool. If the Dems try to use this as a wedge issue, and associate it with absolutist rhetoric at the top of their lungs, they may appeal to their “base,” but they’ll alienate just as many people. Which would be a hell of a shame, given what’s at stake.)
(via Scott)