It’s important not to overanalyze and overhype the results from the Iowa caucuses — a oddball system in a relatively small state — save that the results, because they are generally overanalyzed and overhyped, seem to make a difference in the candidate selection process.
The result of which is a lot of interesting outcomes on both sides, as would be expected in a very tightly fought race.
Twice as many Dems caucused this year as in 2004, and Obama was the clear winner on a lot of levels — most importantly by showing that an African freshman Senator would win a clear plurality of the votes vs. the shiny populism of Edwards or the touted-as-inevitable Clinton. Clinton’s third-place showing is perhaps as big a story, definitely shaking up the previous seeming inevitability of her success.
On the GOP side, Huckabee’s distinct success over Romney shakes things up a bit there, too. McCain and Thompson, in a virtual dead heat, were back in third place each, but with decent showings.
For all of that, it’s far too early in the process to make any predictions. The biggest immediate outcome is the shake-out of candidates — Dodd and Biden have already withdrawn, and it will be tough for anyone not in the top three Democratic slots to continue on, for financial reasons if nothing else. The GOP side is more mixed, with more opportunities in other states for those still in the running, but I expect to hear of some withdrawals there, pretty soon, too.
Meanwhile, Romney and Clinton will both be going into overdrive mode to shore up support in the very different state of New Hampshire. On the GOP side, Huckabee is far weaker in the polls there than amongst the high evangelical Christian turn-out in Iowa, and Giuliani, McCain, and Romney will all have some advantages. A win by Obama there, too, would be highly indicative, but even just a respectable showing will be helpful. That will let things cascade down to the triangle to the third intro primary, in South Carolina, and the other two dozen contests over the next month..
It’s not over until it’s over, by any means. But it’s certainly beginning in an interesting fashion.
Why is the Caucus considered such an odd ball system? It was how things were done here in Colorado up until like the mid ’90s. I loved them since they kept the lazy stupid people from clogging the system like the primary system like we have now.
The Dem outcome is only a surprise for our useless national media and the Heathers that live inside the DC beltway, since HRC and Biden are at the far right wing of the Democratic Party, and Obama and Edwards are more toward the center of the party.
Huckabee’s win shows that the Religious Right still is a big power in the GOP.
Well, the Religious Right is at least still a big force in the GOP in Iowa. We’ll see how well it plays elsewhere.
The caucus is “oddball” only because it’s largely used only in Iowa, I think. While it’s arguable that it “keeps the lazy stupid people from clogging the system,” it’s also less democratic of a process (perhaps the same thing) as it requires personal presence within the narrow time frame (disenfranchising military voters, people with jobs they cannot get time off from, people out of state for some reason, etc.), and, in the case of the Dem version, it’s a non-secret ballot. All those have some advantages, but it’s not clear that it’s a less political process, and the overall turnout has generally been far lower than in primary states.
I wouldn’t argue it should be abolished, but I don’t think I prefer it to primaries.
I was very surprised at NPR’s live coverage of the caucus. It was as if it were actually election night! Personally, I’d have been happy just hearing the results the next morning.
One thing about Iowa, though, is that the only Democrat who ever won it and went on to win the nomination was John Kerry (assuming you don’t count incumbent Presidents and Veeps). The only Republican was Bob Dole in 1996.
It’s interesting in more of a “who’s still got the stuff to continue?” or as a wake up call to the evenutal winner than in predicting who will be the next President.
Upcoming races:
* 3 January—Iowa Caucus
* 5 January—Republican Wyoming caucus
* 8 January—New Hampshire Primary
* 15 January—Michigan Primary (maybe)
* 19 January—Nevada Caucus / Republican South Carolina Primary
* 26 January—Democratic South Carolina Primary
* 29 January—Florida Primary
* 2 February―Maine caucus
* 5 February―Super Duper Tuesday: Primaries/caucuses for both parties in 19 states, plus three Democratic-only caucuses and one Republican-only primary — Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico Democrats, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia Republicans; plus Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Idaho Democrats, Illinois, Kansas Democrats, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana Republicans, New Jersey, New York, and Tennessee. And maybe Oregon.
It all gets further complicated because different parties have levied sanctions on the delegations from some states that have pushed up earlier than “allowed.”
All this means to me is that we’re one step closer to my dream for the next election: an Obama/Edwards ticket! I don’t care which one gets top billing, either. I think these two together would be a juggernaut against ANYTHING the GOP could throw at them.
Here’s hoping!
Watch a bit of an interesting analysis on Bill Moyer last night after we got home — a media lady noting how the media is all trying to explain/frame everything, e.g., two-thirds of voters “rejected” Hillary (no, two-thirds, given their choice, preferred another candidate over her), Huckabee won only because of the evangelicals, Ron Paul isn’t a viable candidate (even though he came in right behind Thompson/McCain, he’s being excluded from the Fox debates coming up), it’s not worth it for Dodd and Biden or Richardson or anyone else not in the top headlines to continue, Giuliani’s in trouble (even though his top polling in Florida would give him as many delegates, nearly, as all the other contests to that date), etc.
Way too early to call much of anything, except to say that I *am* glad that (a) the “this campaign is inevitable because it is spending lots of money” was disproven in this case, and (b) so was the “Obama is non-viable amongst folks in white, rural, middle-America” meme.
Obama/Edwards or Edwards/Obama are probably the best of the lot.
I want Huckabee to be the Republican choice.