I think I agree with my initial analysis of the first debate. Neither candidate shone, neither candidate fell on their face — but given the current nature of the campaign and it’s polling, and that this (foreign policy) was supposed to be McCain’s greatest strength, and Obama’s greatest weakness, the fact that Obama didn’t get flustered, stammering, at a loss, or in any way resembling Palin cuts the legs under the McCain campaign’s narrative about Obama … that his inexperience and lack of knowledge in foreign matters is manifest and dangerous.
McCain, on the other hand, didn’t start babbling, and didn’t overtly lose his famed temper. He did come across as more political (to me), more sniping, more trying the “Sen. Obama just doesn’t understand” line over and over again, never missing a chance to talk about his extensive foreign travel.
That said, I found his comments more scattered, more talking-pointy, less coherently assembled, and a lot less convincing (as well as occasionally confused between “fiscal” and “financial”). But I may be prejudiced.
His attacks on Obama had their main effect on Obama spending precious time at the beginning of each of his rebuttals refuting what McCain had to say about him – usually successfully, but ceding that initiative to McCain.
On those occasions when Obama turned the tables, it seemed that more of his attacks struck home or were less refuted. One of my favorite moments was after McCain trotted out how Obama had voted against funding the troops — and Obama noted that both of them had opposed certain troop funding bills based on other factors (timetables in particular). That said, Obama could have done a lot more questioning of some of McCain’s assertions — not so much to change the hearts and minds, but to show that he can hold his own in a conversation with Putin, et al.
The debate wasn’t handled quite as well as I would have liked. Despite attempts to foment direct discussion / give-and-take between the candidates, it just didn’t quite gel. Obama did more looking over at McCain, but both tended to address the moderator or (in Obama’s case) the camera. That said, the moderator was too unwilling to cut them off when each person wanted to say just one thing more in retort.
So bottom line? Some initial polling gave the debate a lot more to Obama, perhaps because of expectations. But most of the analysis I’ve read indicate that while McCain didn’t do badly, he didn’t deliver the body blow that was needed to put a halt to his erosion in the polls. If things in the electoin stay at the status quo, that means the momentum is still Obama’s.