A week later, here we are (+ means an increase, * means unchanged, – means a decrease):
Site | Obama | McCain | Toss-Up |
364 – | 174 + | ||
Electoral-vote.com | 364 + | 171 – | 3 – |
FiveThirtyEight.com | 344 – | 194 + | |
Pollster.com | 286 – | 157 + | 95 + |
270ToWin.com | 277 + | 163 * | 98 – |
Hedgehog Report | 326 – | 212 + | |
FederalReview.com | 338 – | 166 – | 34 + |
3 Blue Dudes | 313 – | 166 – | 59 + |
Electoral Scoreboard | 367 + | 171 – |
As previously predicted, the gap growth has stalled, and even it’s even contracted a bit. Different sources are showing some gains for Obama, more have gains for McCain, and a number have shown growth in the “tie” states. Note, though, that everyone on the list is now giving the electoral majority (in most cases very comfortably) to Obama.
Over in the other races, here’s how things are looking.
Site | Senate | House (233-199) | Govs (28-22) |
57-41 | 251-184 | 29-21 | |
Electoral-vote.com | 58-41 | 250-184 |
|
FiveThirtyEight.com | 57-41 |
| |
Pollster.com | 55-39 | 246-166 | 27-21 |
Electoral Scoreboard | 53-39 |
|
I haven’t spelled out the tied and independent numbers; you can interpolate them.
The most interesting thing I’ve heard in the Senate race was a very sad scenario in which Joe Lieberman might still be able to wield influence, i.e., if the Dems get to 59 seats, and Joe ends up as the man who can give them a closure-ensuring 60. Now, that’s the kind of trouble one wants to be in, but I’d still almost be willing to sacrifice it in order to send him off to the wood shed (literally — have his office moved to a wood shed) where we don’t need to hear from him any more.