Technology tottering toward extinction?

An interesting article here that seems the appropriate sort of thing for me to piece through ….

11 Technologies in Danger of Going Extinct | LiveScience

Here are 11 devices — some you’d expect and some you might not — that are still roaming the streets but facing rapid extinction.

Fax Machines

It’s true that faxes have existed in various forms since as far back as the 1800s, but they have finally run their course. This is due largely to the growth of email, smartphones and touch-screen technology that allows users to sign documents electronically. According to Pixmania, the largest electronics retailer in Europe, it will be hard to find stores that stock them in just a year’s time.

I’m not sure about Europe, but I don’t expect to see fax machines (or AIO devices that handle faxes) vanishing any time soon.  Using electronic signatures is fine, but there remain too many circumstances where either the technological infrastructure is not there, or where the fax is being used for something other than signature pages.

I still use a fax machine at least once or twice a month at home (very rarely at the office).  It will eventually give way to scan-to-email sooner or later, but I wouldn’t mothball those fax machines yet.

Landline Phones

Cell phones and online video chat (via both smartphones and computers) are giving landlines a run for their money. In fact, nearly a quarter of households in the United States have already ditched landlines and 50 percent of adults aged 25 to 29 only use a mobile device, according to a report by the National Center for Health Statistics. The appeal of the cell phone includes instant accessibility to anyone at anytime, while the land-bound landline stays at home.

Actually, email and video chat are killing all phones to some degree.  That said, POTS phones at home tend to have better receiption and lower prices than mobiles.  The two are not necessarily exclusive, and I suspect most homes will have (with wireless headsets) land lines for some time to come.

Beepers

Yes, beepers are indeed still around. However, most of those still in use are by those in the medical field. Since the demand for these devices has been on the outs for quite awhile, it’s only a matter of time before they become extinct for good.

Margie still uses one, just because she doesn’t want to give everyone and their brother at the office her mobile number.  But, yes, I’d expect pagers will vanish in the not too distant future.

DVD players

Just a decade ago, consumers were trading in VCRs for DVD players. Now, many shoppers are instead opting for Blu-ray and HD discs, which provide high-quality video images. Since these discs are not compatible with traditional DVD players – and the prices for them are dropping – there is no longer an urgent need for the once-coveted DVD player. The growing demand for streaming movies via game consoles and the Internet is also a player in changing the game.

I think these will go away when DVD players start wearing out or breaking, or when the studios stop releasing (or delay releasing) DVD for Blu-Ray.

In the meantime, all those DVD discs still work just fine, and the difference between DVD and Blu-Ray are not nearly so great as that between VHS and DVD.

Streaming video is a growing competitor, but not nearly as many people want to watch movies on their computers — or jury-rig additional devices to run it through their TV — as the technorati think.  It’s most likely the eventual winner here, but it will be several years and at least one hot tech item before it takes off with the general public.

Film Projectors

In 2005, less than 100 movie screens in the United States used digital projectors. Now there are close to 16,000 digital cinema screens, with over 5,000 of them having stereoscopic (3-D) capabilities. Digital film projectors allow a cleaner and crisper viewing experience compared to traditional film projectors, which often makes the picture scratch or break. Movie studios are also pulling for the full digital revolution, as it saves them significant costs in making film prints and shipping them to and from the theaters in bulky metal containers.

I have no basis for knowing what the trajectory here is, but I agree that digital is where it will be at, sooner rather than later.

The Computer Mouse

Now that you can swipe, pinch to zoom, scroll and use other gesture controls found on the iPhone and iPad without a traditional computer mouse, the need for one is slowly slipping away. Apple also recently announced the arrival of a Magic Trackpad, a Bluetooth device that runs on batteries and performs gesture recognition similar to that of an iPad or iPhone.

It’s unclear the basis for this prediction is. I don’t see physical keyboards going away, either.  Trackpads might take the place of mice in time — and it may be faster than I think — but I wouldn’t get rid of my mouse just yet.

Cell Phone Chargers

Wireless charger mats are expected to replace of the oft-misplaced cell phone charger. The mat, which plugs into the wall, charges various gadgets at once — from cell phones to GPS devices — as they rest on top. And to save on energy, it reads when the battery is full and then stops the charging process.

I don’t see this happening very soon, as it requires a fair amount of cooperation and change from a variety of manufacturer to make their devices mat-compatible. Plus, of course, there’s a 2-year-plus transition involved.

Now, replacing idiosyncratic chargers with one of the two or three varieties of mini-USB or micro-USB, and having those pluggable into PCs or generic outlet units — we’re there technically and that removes a lot of that frustration.

Plasma TVs

Sleek and slender Plasma TVs may be light-years away from the chunky box unit you had in your living room only a few years back. But when the cheaper and high-quality LCD screens came into town, consumers jumped ship. Now, however, more TV owners are shopping for LCD TVs that use LED backlighting, an eco-friendly alternative compared to the fluorescent lights used in traditional LCD televisions.

Yeah, this was a pretty straightforward shift.

That said, we have an LCD TV with fluorescents, and I don’t expect to swap that out for quite some time (i.e., until the TV breaks).

Credit Cards

It’s hard to imagine life without the plastic credit card, but the advancements in mobile technology are gearing up to change the way we tap our bank accounts forever. According to First Data, a processing payment company, “Everything you store in a leather wallet will migrate to a mobile handset.” Smartphones will have embedded RFID (radio-frequency identification) chips that will allow shoppers to pay for items by swiping the chip attached to their phone. Mobile devices will also have apps that help shoppers manage their payments.

It’s certainly a likely prospect, but let’s remember that not everybody has a smartphone, and not everybody will.

E-Book Readers

It seems like only yesterday retailers like Amazon and Barnes & Noble splashed onto the scene with e-reader devices that promised to change the way readers read forever. These devices, however, are only a stepping stone for what’s to come. Now with one-stop-shop devices like the iPad that allow you to surf the Internet, watch videos and read books (via e-book apps), basic e-readers may not be as necessary after all.

Maybe. Maybe not.  That  technological uncertainty, plus DRM, still makes me leery of ebook readers.  That said, when a Kindle is eventually selling for $50, it’s going to be more successful an a $500 (or even $400) tablet.

iPods

Apple continues to dominate the digital media player space, but sales for its once-groundbreaking device are falling year-over-year. Analysts blame the lackluster sales on the growth of the iPhone and iPad, which can also serve as a music player in addition to their other offerings.

I’ve been reluctant to complicate my phone with music.  I suspect that dedicated MP3 players will, in fact, go away.  But when?  Hard to say.  Not terribly soon.

So, am I being a blind Luddite, or are some folks way too enthusiatic about technology and how it will penetrate the market?