Nate Silver notes how swing districts have declined in recent decades, along with split tickets (a district going one way for Congress, another way for President). Because of that, he notes that there's increasingly little incentive for more radical Representatives to compromise because their districts support them so strongly — and because straying from the hyperorthodox path will encourage a primary challenge from someone more partisan-than-they. (Emphasis mine:)
'One of the firmest conclusions of academic research into the behavior of Congress is that what motivates members first and foremost is winning elections. If individual members of Congress have little chance of losing their seats if they fail to compromise, there should be little reason to expect them to do so. Republican leaders like House Speaker John A. Boehner may conclude that there are risks to their party if they fail to reach a compromise, as during the current fiscal negotiations. But as David Frum points out, the individual members of his caucus may bear few of those costs directly.'
It's long been noted that even with general satisfaction about Congress as a whole in decline, satisfaction with one's own Representative stays high.
Silver blames in part the gerrymandering of districts by the GOP in 2010. He also notes that political polarization is such that it's influencing demographics — people are considering the political climate in a state or region in considering whether to move to/from there, which causes further polarization.
I'd add into the fact the relative decline in the influence of national parties in local elections, tied to the rise of private donations from conservative / industry super-PACs, makes individual Reps even more immune to centralizing, thus arguably moderating, influences. Who cares if the National Republican Committee doesn't pony up some bucks for your reelection campaign when the Koch Bros. or LibertyWorks are willing to?
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As Swing Districts Dwindle, Can a Divided House Stand?
Most members of the House of Representatives come from hyperpartisan districts where they face essentially no threat of losing their seat to the other party – and have little incentive to work across …
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