Executive Summary: Things are screwy right now, who who the hell knows?
And he's right, for a variety of correct reasons. Things will triangulate further as primary season progresses, as the convention and nomination actually happen, as the Dems make their nomination (and the fall-out from that), and as the general election draws near. Gaffes and scandals and other bits will play their roles, too.
It's also probably too soon to assume this is a major political realignment going this year (as Silver also points out), though we're due for one. Such things tend to be opaque when you are in the middle of them. But it's certainly a possibility, and, if so, how it will shake out (on both sides of the aisle) will make for interesting (in the Chinese Curse sense) politics for decades to come.
Don’t Assume Conservatives Will Rally Behind Trump
If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination, he’ll have undermined a lot of assumptions we once held about the GOP. He’ll have become the nominee despite neither being reliably cons…
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"Gaffes and scandals and other bits will play their roles, too." Have there been any "Gaffes and scandals" for Trump yet?
+Ezra Allen Depending how "gaffe" is defined. He's said any number of things that have appalled and revulsed some people, They don't seem to have affected his base, true, but they've also kept a lot of possible allies from supporting him as yet.
There have been, similarly, no new scandals I'm aware of, but any number of past scandalous behavior that either serve as fodder for mocking Trump or interfering with potential alliances, or haven't had an effect on his core support.
(Which core support seems to think that gaffes and scandals just make him more … I dunno … "real".)
Will there be any more in the next eight months? We'll see.
I wanted to let you know that some of your posts, Not all of them but some of them, are pinging into your newsfeed multiple times.
+Doyce Testerman Thanks! Margie mentioned that last night, but I got distracted by three other things. I'll endeavor to correct.