Drawing overall conclusions as to the state of play for the Senate GOP's health insurance reform bill is difficult since so much of what's going on is behind closed doors, and so much in public is political posturing (to increase pressure on some folk, to score points, to set up future stratagems, to cover one's ass, etc.). Little of what we see above the surface should be taken at face value.
So lets' talk about it anyway. Because these two articles were interesting [3] and I have some blathering to do.
The first one [1] is more about overall GOP strategy — what Mitch McConnell is trying to do, what Ted Cruz is trying to do, what the two of them are trying to do to each other, how the White House is sticking its nose in, how groups in the House are making demands on the Senate.
It presents both the Senate and the White House as continue to scramble to find some way to get some form of AHCA passed, lest it be held against them come the next election (or sooner). How effective that will be is anyone's guess — folk proclaimed the House version dead, until suddenly it was alive and passed by throwing money at one corner of it. The Senate's situation is much dicier, with much narrower margins to pass by rules on budget impact, and a generally more sane deliberative style, even amongst the Republicans.
I wouldn't bet money on anything in particular, though I think Repeal-Now-Replace-Later is DOA. McConnell keeps making noises about compromising with Dems, as do a number of more moderate Republicans, but the former is using it as a threat, not a promise. The pressure to pass something, anything, is immense, and my own views on the matter too skewed (and/or rational, take your pick) to figure if the Senate will turn out to be sane enough to pursue what's best for American as a whole (and their political futures in particular), or just insane enough to set the whole thing on fire.
My biggest concern is that the Senate GOP will simply try to buy off any group that is concerned — throw a few billion at this issue, add a tax refund for that issue — ending up with something that's even more unstable than the ACA, while setting up matters for future paring (sorry, we promised you an inadequate $8B for that program back in 2017, but now it's an easy cut to just take that line item out in 2018).
The second article [2] talks about some of the specific pressure points against the current Senate AHCA, particularly ones that came up during the 4th of July recess (even among the Senators who didn't attend any town halls, but esp. among the ones who did). While a lot of the initial push-back was from Senators from states with substantial Medicaid populations (which people stereotypically equate with "poor urban folk," though that's simply not the case), a lot of the recess pressure was on Senators from rural states that are being warned that their hospitals and clinics will decimated if the Senate bill passes — especially in states that didn't go for the Medicaid expansion.
There remain at least publicly-expressed concerns from GOP Senators over the pre-existing condition protections — something Cruz' new brainstorm would overtly sabotage, rather than the covert sabotage the mainstream Senate AHCA allows for ("No, we didn't do it — it was your state legislature that did!").
Again, this comes down to key questions of whether the Senate GOP Leadership can either bully or bribe individual Senators into line, whether factions within the GOP will shatter the required minimum majority, and how much pressures on individual Senators to get reelected will be influenced by worries about not getting rid of the ACA, or worries about what they'll be held responsible for by doing so.
The last bit that keeps creeping into newscasts is "deadlines." To a large extent, these are rhetorical, as the House's reconsideration of their AHCA and subsequent passage of it show. McConnell warned that the AHCA had to pass the Senate by the July 4 recess or else dire things would happen. It didn't, and they haven't. Now we hear that the Senate will have only a couple of weeks after they get back, or else they'll hit their August recess and be gone for another month and that will be the end of it.
Those assertions strike me as silly. It lets the Senate leadership put pressure on members to get something done, and it lets the media make it all into some even higher-stakes game (as if the health of Americans weren't enough). I have no doubt the Senate GOP would love to get something passed ASAP, and the longer they don't address known, long-term problems with the ACA the worse the issues there become (and the greater the chance that the GOP will be blamed for them), but there is no actual deadline for legislative action. If something doesn't get done in July, it can be done in September. Or December. Or next year. Or any year while the GOP maintains a majority in both chambers (and the White House). Eternal vigilance, etc.
Interesting times.
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[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/senate-gop-and-white-house-plan-final-urgent-blitz-to-pass-health-care-law/2017/07/07/08367830-631d-11e7-8adc-fea80e32bf47_story.html
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/07/us/politics/republicans-health-care-bill.html
[3] Yeah, I know, "FAKE NEWS!" Grow up.
G.O.P. Support of Senate Health Repeal Erodes During Break
The Senate’s bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act is now imperiled, facing new opposition from Republicans who fear its impact on rural communities.
cool
Sense when is it a " human right " for others to pay your bills?
+None Ya I myself tend not to refer to health care as a human right as much as a societal obligation.
"Pay your bills" makes it sound like the only one concerned with whether someone is sick, injured, or dying is that individual themselves.
It's nice to see someone who thinks about what they read and hear and don't just throw articles at people with no context or evidence. Thanks, buddy.