You can always tell when Donald Trump has a polling result that isn’t wretched: he immediately tweets about it, even if the rest of the time he studiously ignores the polls (and just makes handwaving statements about his amazing popularity).
In this case, it’s a single outlying poll, showing a 45% approval. Um … whoopie?
That’s not that great a number. In the same December of their term, Barack Obama had a 49 percent approval rating; George W. Bush (three months on from 9/11) had nearly 85 percent approval.
It’s also an outlier; 538’s aggregate of surveys shows a 37% approval, 56% disapproval.
Still, assume the 45% approval is right. Indeed, given its extraordinary nature, if Donald is pushing that number, he must have a lot of faith in it. To me, though, picking out a single number from a poll and ignoring the rest is the height of dishonesty. If Donald is going to trumpet one result from the poll, he should stand by all of them.
So what does the poll itself have to say?
The basic approval rating is, as Donald notes, 45%; that’s about evenly split between strongly and somewhat approving. The disapproval rating is 59%; 39% strongly disapprove.
59% think the country is off on the wrong track.
Looking at whom the survey respondents trust in Congress, Republicans get the nod (though only a weak plurality) in the economy, jobs, national security, and immigration. Dems get the plurality approval in health care, the environment, energy, and education. If an election was held for Congress in the respondent’s district today, a narrow plurality would vote Dem.
Looking at policy priorities, healthcare reform is a majority top priority (and a vast majority important or top priority). Important or top priorities include Investigating Trump/Russia, reforming Medicare and Social Security, reforming bank regulations, reforming immigration, and passing a DACA bill.
In fact, a very solid majority think passing a DACA bill is somewhat or very important, and a narrow plurality believe that’s important enough to prompt a government shutdown if not done.
On the other hand, a majority indicated a low priority or no desire to build Trump’s wall.
A plurality support the GOP tax reform (and a solid majority think it at least somewhat important to pass the bill), though a plurality think it will increase their taxes. A very narrow (and low) plurality think it will have a positive impact on the national and state/local economies, job creation, and employee wages, while having a negative impact on income inequality and government debt. A majority, though, don’t believe the corporate tax reduction will benefit average Americans.
A solid majority oppose a government shutdown, and think that Congress should take all necessary steps to avoid it. A majority do not believe funding the Trump wall is important enough to warrant a shutdown. On the other hand, a solid majority think providing hurricane recovery aid to Texas and Florida and Puerto Rico, and increasing defense and homeland security, and renewing CHIP, are worth a shutdown to achieve.
A plurality have unfavorable opinions of Mitch McConnell. Paul Ryan. and Nancy Pelosi. A plurality have no opinion of Chuck Schumer. A plurality have a favorable opinion of Mike Pence.
A narrow plurality have an unfavorable impression of Jeff Sessions (Atty Genl) and Betsy Devos (Education). A narrow plurality have a favorable impression of Rex Tillerson (State), Rick Perry (Energy), Ben Carson (HUD), John Kelly (WH Chief of Staff), with a larger favorable impression of James Mattis. There was a tie between favorable, unfavorable, and never-heard-of for Steve Mnuchin (Treasury).
The plurality have never heard of Tom Price (HHS), Sonny Perdue (Agriculture), Wilbur Ross (Commerce), Elain Chao (Transportation), David Shulkin (VA)or Ryan Zinke (Interior), Scott Pruitt (EPA), Alexander Acosta (Labor).
A majority have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, and of Republicans in Congress. A plurality have an unfavorable opinion of Democrats in Congress, Jared Kushner, Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, Jeff Sessions
A majority have a favorable opinion of Melania Trump. A majority have no opinion of or have never heard of Hope Hicks, Gary Cohn, and Robert Mueller.
Neither side has the plurality in better handling sexual misconduct and harassment, though the Dems fare marginally better than the GOP there.
Almost two-thirds think sexual harassment and misconduct is a big problem in the entertainment industry. A plurality believe that about the news media and the federal government. A majority think it’s at least somewhat of a problem in state and local government, the finance industry, the tech industry, blue collar workspaces, white collar workspaces, Republican politics, and Democratic politics.
Interestingly enough, a plurality say it is not a problem in their own workplace.
Sexual misconduct allegations are considered credible by the majority against Bill Clinton, Harvey Weintein, Bill O’Reilly, Matt Lauer … and (by 53%) Donald Trump.
They are considered credible by a plurality against Roy Moore, Mark Halperin, Charlie Rose, John Conyers, Al Franken.
Sexual misconduct issues are considered pretty much equal in impact between the Republicans and the Democrats, though the Dems are considered marginally better at dealing with such issues. In the case of elected officials, the majority feel that credible accusations should lead to a resignation; leaving it up the voters is a significant minority.
In the specific case of Al Franken, a vast majority thought the Ethics Committee should investigate the matter; a narrow majority thought he should resign; a plurality thought he should be expelled. On the other hand, a significant majority thought Roy Moore should be expelled from the Senate if he wins his election. A large majority think that Congress should formally investigate credible accusations of sexual misconduct even if they occur before the member is sworn in.
The plurality think Trump tells the truth “Never” (33%), and the national news media “Some of the Time” (a significant majority believe some or most of the time). Overall, the plurality believe the national news media over Trump.
A narrow plurality do not consider Trump a strong leader, but do consider him knowledgeable, do consider him racist, don’t think he keeps his promises.
A majority do not think him too liberal, nor think him too conservative; do consider him sexist, do not think him honest or trustworthy, do not think he cares about “people like me,” do not think he is compassionate, do believe he is thin-skinned, and significantly think him reckless
So, Donald — are you going to write big graphic banners for those results, too? “45% approval rating — and racist, sexist, untrustworthy, dishonest, uncaring, uncompassionate, thin-skinned, and reckless.”
I’d pay money to see that tweet.
Even more realistic polls still leave me concerned that a large 1/3rd of your population are complete idiots.
+Al Hunt And they’re touchy when it’s pointed out.
As of last night recent polls have him at a 32% approval 63 disapproval ratings
+Al Hunt I have resigned myself that there is always 20-25% of people who will say anything. "Were the Nazis unfair in their treatment of German Jews?" 80% will say yes. 20% will say no. "Should children who eat with their elbows on the table be flogged?" Same thing. "Is the sky blue?" Yup.
I don't know i this is particularly American, or some core group of Americans who are just contrary, or what.