The DPRK always goes ape over US/South Korea military exercises. But apparently they had advance warning about this one (as usual), and nobody was expecting things to get all contentious with all the upcoming talks and summits in the works.
Will this put the kibosh on Trump’s summit with Kim? Will Trump cancel the military exercise? Will he bluster and call off the meeting himself? Is Kim bluffing? Is Trump?
We shall see.
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Ignore Trump for the moment and think about what's gone on in the Koreas since the Olympics. Beloved Sister visits the South, Korean leaders meet at the DMZ, then this.
I suspect that Kim Jong Un, rather than changing his mind on a whim like a certain other world leader, has probably planned this good cop/bad cop strategy intentionally, just to see what would happen. He really doesn't have anything to lose, and it gives his country a lot of attention that could come in handy later.
+John E. Bredehoft My presumption is that, yes, this is Kim demonstrating he's in charge of stuff — and, perhaps, seeing what else he can get Trump to concede to without making any effort of his own.
Yes. Because Trump is a bear of very little strategic brain, he's already hugely personally invested, publicly, in the success of the June summit. In other words, he has unilaterally handed Kim an enormous amount of leverage. If the DPRK cancels, Trump has egg on his face, which he hates, but the alternative is betraying an ally OH WAIT.
+Colm Buckley Yeah, that's what I'm worried about — Trump either "betrays an ally" (which he'll do in a heartbeat if his own prestige is on the line), or tanks the meeting and then, to prove he wasn't manipulated by Kim, does Something Precipitous.
Honestly, I think NK's response is logical. They're coming to the table in good faith, with announcements of plans to denuclearize. So when the other side decides to continue its practice of military operations, in what context would this NOT be considered an act of provocation, especially how NK has reacted to these exercises in the past?
I'd say, you have to treat these adults like teenagers. Let them think they are getting what they want, but have a clear and reasonable goal for the end game. Right now, I just see Rocket man and dotard still pounding their chests, just in a different manner. It is clear neither is the bigger man.