Believe me, I understand. I desperately want Donald out of the White House and somewhere (whether in prison, in an institution, or in a golf cart) far away from where he can continue to vandalize our society through the power of the federal government.
But Trump managed to do — intentionally or not — one incredibly clever thing in his ascent: he added a "poison pill" to the political process, in the form of his successor, Mike Pence. Pence these days is known mostly for his Smithers-like fawning and admiring glances and continuous presence around Donald, but prior to a couple of years ago he was known as the arch-conservative theocratic governor of Indiana.
Trump is a horrifying menace in his own right — but he's also been his own worst enemy, alienating political allies, and tweeting his way into federal court decisions against his policies.
Pence, on the other hand, knows how to actually work the reins of government. He wouldn't be quite as capricious and megalomaniacal as Trump, but he'd be vastly more effective in using the federal government to is own ideological ends. Abortion, gay rights, women's rights, birth control, anything that looks sideways at (Christian) religious "freedom," anything that has offended any conservative Christian activist group for the last fifty years — it would be all be under concerted and (unlike with Trump) coherent attack. That's clear looking at his record as governor.
Getting rid of Trump would be difficult. A double-play that managed to get rid of him and Pence is virtually inconceivable, even if Pence is found to have been involved in whatever electoral shenanigans Trump turns out to have been. Even if the Dems take a slim Senate majority (an outside chance at the moment), even if enough GOP Senators can be convinced to follow through on an impeachment indictment from the House from Trump, you will never get enough conservative Senators to constitute the 2/3 majority needed to impeach Pence as well.
At this point, the least-worst scenario is to restore gridlock to Washington, so as to keep Donald in office but unable to do much more than keep hammering at the machinery of government with a twenty pound sledge in his tiny little hands, until his term is ended. As much as I fear Trump's incompetence, I fear Pence's competence and the directions to which he'd put it far more.
If You’re Hoping Trump Will Be Impeached, Be Careful What You Wish For
We could be looking at a decade of President Mike Pence
Yes he is toxic boot him out the door, he's a growing cancer.
What I keep coming up against is that Pence is likely ALREADY doing much of this. It's not like his hands are tied as VP. We are already seeing a lot of the theocratic agenda coming through.
While Trump chose Pence to shore up support from the conservatives who opposed him in the primaries, the unforeseen consequence is intriguing.
One wonders whether Spiro Agnew was Nixon's poison pill, but back in those days people didn't really care about what the Vice President would do AFTER the team won the election; he (or she) was primarily chosen to balance the ticket. The Carter-Mondale team thought a little more about such things, as did subsequent teams. (I'll even go out on a limb and argue that Quayle's Senate experience and domestic credentials appeared to be a post-election benefit to Bush 41 at the time.)
One might wonder if Trump will become jealous of Pence's burgeoning ambitions and carry out a murder/suicide. That would leave the GOP positioned to claim that they are not as bad as all that, and quickly stage a comeback. Perhaps that is what Vlad has been planning for them all along.
+Cindy Brown He's doing some of it, I have little doubt, but he's also got to be circumspect; one thing Trump has demonstrated is that he expects to be the one, sole focus of attention and authority in the WH.
I came across this, though I'm skeptical. Makes for great fantasy pr0n, though.
(The article is a year old, but the tweet discussing it is here: https://twitter.com/TrueFactsStated/status/1040598946064654336 )
mashable.com – The odds on Trump resigning just shifted, and not in his favor
Even in the best of cases, a Vice President has to take care to be extremely deferential toward the President. At least in public, most of the post World War II Vice Presidents have maintained that deference.
+Cindy Brown For small bettors (i.e. those who do not depend upon gambling as their primary source of income), bets can be influenced by emotions. People in Texas WANT to bet that the Dallas Cowboys will win the Super Bowl, despite the fact that they haven't done so in many years. Same with Trump bets.
Now if Nancy Pelosi were betting her entire Congressional salary that Trump would leave office before 2020, or if Mitch McConnell were betting that he'd remain, I'd pay more attention.
I have very mixed feelings on this. But I think you also need to take into account the damage that Trump is doing internationally. Trade agreements. Reputation. Wars. While we certainly benefit from his ineffectiveness, I think I’d still rather take my chances with Pence.
The problem I have with this utilitarian calculation is that it doesn't include the consequences of looking the other way as a candidate colludes with an enemy power to gain control of the government he then robs for personal gain and to benefit said enemy power.
That's a dangerous precedent to set on the condition that anyone thinks things through enough to add a poison pill. The cost benefit analysis may pencil out for today's calculation but it's never just about today's calculation. If we do not create a cautionary tale for future Trumps, if we show ourselves that we're fine with this under certain circumstances then we'll be more likely to have these issues going forward.
In other words, now is exactly when we must confirm to ourselves that no one is above the law. If we don't then we will have confirmed the opposite.
+John Wehrle Leave it to you to strip away the politics and get down to the basic ethical issue. You'd think you had a background in that or something. 🙂
+John Wehrle There's a lot I can't argue with in what you say, and the impact of effectively having the agent (or, charitably, puppet) of a foreign power in the White House is a factor I'd not included.
(The damage of Trump to our international relations is, sadly, already a done deal,+Kee Hinckley. That's a sunk cost, even if Trump were booted out of office tomorrow. Assuming he doesn't, I dunno, nuke Venezuela.)
The fact is, Pence scares the shit out of me — and I'm not, myself, one of his obvious targets (though I have family members who are). It's difficult for me figure out which one scares me most.
+Dave Hill absolutely those of us who would not be Pence's primary targets should consider our privilege before we decide that the risk is worth it. And I didn't include that consideration in my analysis. So that's on me.
But, as I sit here thinking it over, I am personally very skeptical about clever moral fixes. Very often there are no problem free moral options. Usually, the ranking of utilitarian options becomes a subjective guess-fest once the obvious bad choices are rejected.
And it's these considerations that usually bring me back to a more virtue-ethics type approach. Deal-making with fascists never ends well. We're going to have to fight and we will likely suffer many losses along the way. But at least we'll be fighting. However, that's me using my voice in speaking for myself and I understand if for others who don't have my privilege the answer is different.
+Dave Hill Regarding the damage to international relations – whoever follows Trump (Mike Pence, Kamala Harris, whoever) will enjoy a honeymoon with the international community just from the fact that he/she is NOT Trump. Of course, it's up to the future President to capitalize on this.
+John E. Bredehoft You are almost certainly right. I suspect the same will be true domestically, too. Trump has (perhaps one of his greatest sins) not just moved the Overton Window, but take a sledgehammer to the wall waaaaaay over there to create a new one (overlooking the dumpster fires in the political alleyway).
I have not read up on Pence's foreign policy kinks (I don't think it came up much in Indiana). I suspect he would (barring influence from Moscow that hasn't been strongly detected yet) chart a middle course between Trump's whimsy and traditional conservative positions. It depends on the circumstances of Trump's departure, of course, but there's still a strong pro-Trump base out there that, it seems, actually likes the US being an unabashed lone bully, and Pence would likely not want to rile them up too much
The only place where I'd expect him to out-Herod Herod (fittingly) is in further boosting US support for Israel, given his conservative Christian leanings.
+Dave Hill Two contributors to The Hill agreed with your assessment in a 2017 piece.
= = =
Two major aspects would characterize Pence’s foreign policy: a re-embrace of the Republican establishment and an aggressive uptake of Christian social conservative thought.
Among the Republican establishment, particularly the neoconservative wing, Pence has an impeccable reputation. Many describe him as a “hawk’s hawk.” He was a strong proponent of the Iraq War, has vigorously stood up for a strong military and "American values" and, as vice president, has taken on an informal role as an emissary to NATO and other alliances. All of this contrasts starkly to what candidate Trump said on the campaign trail.
Likewise, Pence’s evangelical Christian faith is central to his identity. He has proudly built up a reputation as one of the most conservative lawmakers in the country and frequently describes himself as “a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order.” There is a high probability that Pence would explicitly embed religious morals in U.S. foreign policy and push an activist social conservative agenda….
But a Pence presidency could also mean re-adopting a “values agenda,” with a greater emphasis on human rights, democracy and development that would be closer in line with President George W. Bush’s policies. Under Bush, funding for development — particularly global health programs — expanded, bringing together an unlikely coalition of secular development advocates and faith-based stakeholders.
It is not hard to envision a similar coalition coming together under Pence’s watch. A Pence presidency also may lead to a shoring-up of security and economic alliances. Just as Trump has cast the free-trade regime into jeopardy, castigated NATO (at least before an abrupt about-face last month) and signaled massive funding cuts to the Bretton Woods Institutions, Pence may reverse many of these pronouncements.
= = =
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/335160-what-would-us-foreign-policy-look-like-under-a-president
+Dave Hill You're assuming that there's no kompromat on Pence. But Manafort chose Pence specifically. So Pence's foreign policy may well follow right along in T's footsteps.
In a moral stance, we should stomp T immediately. In a practical stance, and I don't mean in a which-is-worse-T-or-P way, but in a what can we ACTUALLY do…and I think our best shot is overwhelming the GOP in the midterms and having at least a House that can containerize the damage until we can get him out of office.
If that doesn't happen, my concern is that the GOP will lock itself into power for another decade or more through gerrymandering and voter suppression. I don't think we'll see — yet — a permanent president. I think the GOP will keep up appearances and elect in various complicit candidates to office if they manage to get control of the elections in this country.
+Cindy Brown I assume nothing. I noted (in a comment) "I suspect he would (barring influence from Moscow that hasn't been strongly detected yet) chart a middle course between Trump's whimsy and traditional conservative positions."
Even with the Manafort connection, I don't know that hits quite the level of assuming Russian influence as one can from several axes for Trump. I'm certainly not assuming that's not the case, just noting that, even without it, Pence is a hot mess.
I concur with your other points.
Oh, and Pence brought Flynn in…
YEAH, IMPEACH THE POS
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