The 2018 Election: The National Perspective

(As of 11:42pm MST)

I wish it had been more of a Blue Wave, but … it was enough for government work, so to speak.

The big news of the night is the Dems taking back the House majority, by enough of a margin to hold together in most cases. To be sure, as a single chamber, it means that the Dems cannot simply pass what they want — but the GOP no longer has that capability, either. The GOP still gets to further push conservative federal judges through the Senate, but plans by McConnell and Trump to gut Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security and the ACA (by law) are now on permanent hold.

There’s always a chance that the split House/Senate might be able to put together some bipartisan legislation on some important things. At which point, Trump becomes the obstruction. I’ve also heard rumors that Trump will all wheely-dealy and transactional with the House, but how he can do that without looking “weak” in front of his base would be a challenge. We’ll see.

Most importantly, there’s now an independent chamber of Congress to provide legislative oversight over the executive branch. All those House committees that have basically been providing cover for the Trump Administration will now be in the hands of the Democrats, with the power of subpoena, and the ability to pursue the investigations that the GOP have papered over, ignored, or given a pass to.

Again, the GOP still holds the Senate, which means primarily executive appointments remain under GOP control. And, despite all the breathless anticipating of presidential impeachment, the GOP holding the Senate means it will never happen (and even in the wildest wet dreams of flipping the Senate, it would never have flipped enough to get a partisan-driven impeachment conviction through).

Indeed, the if the GOP actually builds its majority in the Senate (as seems likely), it means more for the Dems to claw back, and it means that the “Oh, we only need to flip 1-2 votes to block some Senate awfulness” is now a much bigger hill.

That was to be expected, given the really bad electoral map for the Senate the Dems faced this year. The GOP hits that wall in 2020. We’ll see what happens.

On the other hand, fiscal bills — budgets and taxes — have to originate in the House, which seriously puts a crimp in both McConnell and Trump’s agendas (which are not quite the same).

If nothing else comes of it, the added friction of the Dems in control of the House means Trump is going to run into more obstructions in his ghastly administration of the federal government. That can (in my opinion) only be a good thing.

A few other observations.

1. I’m really sad that Voldemort Rick Scott will be going to the Senate. I’m also disappointed Gillum lost the governorship in Florida. Both elections were noteworthily close, but, damn.

(It will be interesting to see how Florida’s passing the re-enfranchisement of released felons will affect future elections.)

Also gravely disappointed that the loathsome Steve King won re-election — though his GOP peers from Iowa seem to going be down to defeat.

Really sorry to see Ted Cruz squeak by to success. I hope this is not the last we see of Beto O’Rourke.

On the other hand, Chris Kris Kobach went down to defeat, so huzzah.

I’m waiting on tenterhooks for both Wisconsin and Georgia. I hope I don’t have more disappointments there.

2. Overall, it looks like a significant erosion of Trump support vs 2016 (if it’s fair to use results in this election as a proxy for Trump support in comparison to his presidential percentages, since he made the vote “about” him). A lot of House races in districts that went Trump by significant double-digit percentages, went to Dem contenders. Some of that is the “natural” swing for a president’s first mid-term. But it seems more than that, not quite enough to enable massive change, but significant.

The Republican vote seems to be Men and Whites Age 45+. Though I am compelled to hashtag, ahem, #notalloldwhitemen …

3. Looking at the voting maps, we continue to see Urban going D, Rural going R. What seemed to change was a lot of Suburbia was showing a shift to the Ds. If that continues, that will be big.

4. Watching the results come back, I was wowed by the diversity, especially in gender. Both in GOP and especially Dem winners, there was a massive number of women being elected onto the national scene. That’s great.

Special kudos to the first two Native American women elected to Congress. It’s about time.

5. Thrilled to see heavy voter turn-out. That’s a good thing. I might be less happy about some of the voters that came out — but as I’ve said repeatedly, voter turn-out = engagement = societal strength, at least as a long-term thing.

Net-net, I’ve had happier elections. But God knows I’ve had worse.

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