These were a few interesting articles I’ve run across the past few days (followed by my early candidate preferences):
The first post-9/11 vets are running for president. Do voters care? – POLITICO — Apparently Dems are a lot less impressed by military credentials than they used to be when sizing up presidential candidates. I know for myself I find it an interesting datum, but more for how they relate it to their life’s experience, service, concern over putting contemporary troops in harm’s way, etc.
Which 2020 Candidates Are More (Or Less) Popular Than They ‘Should’ Be? | FiveThirtyEight — Polling right now is … of dubious value for identifying the winners, but it is kind of interesting in looking at trends — whose numbers are moving, whose aren’t, and whose are moving in the wrong direction.
I expect things to shake out a lot more after the debates rumble through and people actually start paying attention, at least at the sound bite level.
Presidential historian: Democrats’ ‘conventional wisdom’ on picking nominee is ‘all wrong’ | TheHill — The DNC (and a sizeable array of media punditry) seem convinced that the only way to win is to nominate a comfortable centrist. While Biden’s initial surge in the polls seems to support that, this historian notes that the Dems have won in the last half-century with outsiders and non-centrists, and when they’ve gone for moderate candidates (who are lambasted as radicals by the GOP anyway), they haven’t fared so well.
2020 Democratic Debates Guide – POLITICO — Given the gobsmacking number of candidates, it’s little wonder that, even with pre-planning, the selection criteria for the debates is resulting in a lot of shouting and stomping of feet.
Oh, and since the question has come up elsewhere, here are the only candidates I have much interest (one way or the other in) at the moment:
Biden — He’s an entire political generation (or two) behind. I don’t think he’s the awful person some folk are trying to paint him as, but I don’t think he’s the Great Moderate Hope who can beat Trump. I want someone a bit –fresher.
Sanders — Frankly, I find the guy irritating, perpetually angry and scolding and shouting and scowling. He’s done a tremendous service in raising a lot of ideas that have gone from zany-and-way-out-there in 2016 to what most of the Democratic candidates are standing behind this election. All credit to him for that. Now I wish he’d go away and throw his weight behind the nominee.
Warren — Wonky and feisty and, from what I can see, earnest. I like her. She’s older than I’d prefer (as are the other two mentioned above, and their presumed opponent this election), but she has a heck of a spring in her step, and I can see her going toe-to-toe with Trump.
Buttigieg — I’ve yet to hear him say anything I didn’t like. I’m a scosh hesitant about promoting someone from mayor to president, but on the other hand he’s got actual executive experience (if on a far smaller scale). I want to see more of him.
O’Rourke — I’d have love to have seen him boot Ted Cruz out of the Senate, and mad props to him for getting so close, but that’s about the best I can say for Beto. I don’t have a sense of much substance on issues here, just a lot of charisma. I’m still willing to listen.
Booker — My sense from having seen him interviewed a lot over the past several years is that he’s a political hack. I might be wrong, but he’s just seemed to be light on policy, heavy on partisanship.
Harris, Gillibrand, Castro, Klobuchar — I haven’t heard enough of to really get excited or outraged, just enough to recognize their names.
Hickenlooper, Bennet — Yeah, they’re from my home state. Um, yay, team?
And All the Rest — Enjoy your 5 minutes in the spotlight (if you are lucky). I don’t see anyone from that far down in the pack getting anywhere except to use this run as a publicity springboard for further office-seeking.
And with that said, here’s the biggest caveat: Short of learning about something profoundly horrible in their past (or present) — I mean of the “eats live puppies with guacamole” level of horrible — there’s not a single one of the people on this list I would not vote for to get Trump out of office. There are some I’d prefer to vote for to that end, but when it comes to November 2020, I’m there for whomever is on the Democratic ballot. And that’s not just about partisanship — it’s about literally saving this country (and possibly human civilization).
That’s hyperbole of the sort I have usually rolled my eyes at in the past. I fully believe it when it comes to the 2020 election.
Bernie and Warren are my choices because their ideas are the ones that align closer to mine.
Booker is a hack and a grifter.
Buttigieg is a Reagan quoting hack centrist that has no sense of history.
Hickenlooper and Bennet are right wing hacks that are out of touch with reality and the party.
Biden has made a career of being on the wrong side of history on everything and he would have made a perfect 70s GOP candidate. The only thing that he has going for him is that he was Obama’s VP, or as the Daily Show put it, he’s the dick you know.
The rest might have a shot at making an impression during the debates, but I doubt it.
And he was picked for that role as a safe, old-school politician who would hopefully help keep Dems from freaking out about a left-of-center black man running for office. He was the moderately conservative choice then and, twenty years later, he’s not really moved forward.
Again, he’d be a vast improvement on Trump, but I’d prefer we end up with someone I really want, not someone who’s a better candidate than the worst president in our times.