One might think that Trump’s foreign actions are as inconsistent and zany as his domestic ones. But the author says there is one … and, not surprising given its simplicity, it isn’t working very well.
The Trump doctrine, in a nutshell, is that the United States is by leaps and bounds the most powerful country in the world, and by all rights should be taking greater advantage of that power. Any agreement we make, with friend or foe, should favor us absolutely; if not, there’s no reason for us to maintain it. When we tell other countries what to do, they had better listen, and if they don’t, we shouldn’t do business with them. Diplomatic and trade relations with the U.S. are privileges, and the threat of withdrawing those privileges is a shamefully underused lever for shaping other countries’ behavior.
Thus Trump withdraws (or threatens to withdraw) from trade agreements he thinks are not sufficiently profitable to the US, wants an expensive build-up of military force, and suggests that cutting off all trade with China is both doable and desirable if China doesn’t stop trading with North Korea.
The thing is, it’s not based on reality. Not even on past reality. Trump may be following rules that worked in cut-throat property deals, to twist the arms of municipalities or suppliers, but American leverage in military and economic power isn’t nearly that great, wasn’t designed to be used that way, and can’t actually be so used without doing a lot of harm to the US as well.
Could we survive cutting off trade with China? Yes, but it wouldn’t be pretty (for either country), would likely throw the US into a huge economic downturn (we sell a lot to China, you know), and the Chinese have a lot of leverage to strike back. Could we turn North Korea into a glass parking lot? Sure, but aside from the butcher’s bill in doing so, the collateral damage done to North Korea’s neighbors, and to America’s reputation, would be horrific (and that’s even with the assumption that the DPRK can’t yet hit US territory with something nuclear).
Bluster and braggadocio only work if you don’t get called, or if you can back up your bluff. Trump can’t do either — and the nations he is going up against know it.
In that light, this tweet makes perfect sense. Yes, he doesn't want to do business with countries that do business with bad hombres – unless American companies can SELL something.
"I am allowing Japan & South Korea to buy a substantially increased amount of highly sophisticated military equipment from the United States."
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/905047095488516098
He's always been a bully, and that strategy has always worked for him while protected in the US by laws and lawyers. Not so much in the real world.
Just like how George the Second learned that the American Hegemony was the most powerful thing in the world, right until he mired the army in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Navy off the coast of east Africa, and showed the world that just like every other empire in history that you are only as good as your PR.
"Speak softly and carry a big stick."
Donald never speaks softly. And his stick is rarely as large as he brags it is.
+Dave Hill >rim shot<
He'll be here all week folks, make sure to tip your waitstaff on the way out.