Category: Elections 2008

A week later, here we are (+ means an increase, * means unchanged, – means a decrease):

Interestingly, a week ago everyone was talking about how the spread between Obama and McCain would likely slow, or even stabilize, as more and more of the undecideds decided. Instead, Obama continues to widen the electoral gap, in a few cases substantially.

The other thing that’s getting interesting to follow is the Senate race. The Dems, of course, are at 51 currently (the “1” being quasi-Democrat Joe Lieberman). Of the above sites that have an easy access to a Senate race counter, the spread is everything form 55 to 59 when the dust clears. Nobody is seriously suggesting that the Dems might get a cloture-proof 60 yet (I’m not 100% sold they should or shouldn’t), but it’s awfully close in some of the races.

Crossing fingers here …

A bit briefer than my usual analysis, but trying to get this out before I head off for 19 hours of flight (and another 8 of night time):

MCCAIN

1. Father Coughlin – Pointing fingers on the economic problems.
2. McCain Blames Self For Economic Meltdown – Well, no, not directly. But by implication …
3. Gettin’ Under His Skin? – Testy, testy, testy.
4. Watchdog group seeks ethics investigation of McCain… – Gambling winnings not reported? Hmmmmmm ….
5. Actually, Sen. McCain, He DOES Know About Fannie Mae… – Why assume a member of the debate audience (a young black man for that matter) doesn’t know about Fannie and Freddies? 
6. Look Him in the Eye and Say It, Buddy – If Obama pals around with terrorists, why not confront him about it on national TV? Biden calls McCain on it.
7. Obama Called “Traitor” Again At McCain Rally – No condemnation of the comments from the audience by the speaker.
8. Dishonor – Variations on the theme.
9. GOP Former Gov: “He Is Not The McCain I Endorsed” – People distancing themselves from a loser, or an attempt to actually not have the party dragged down into the mire?
10. McCain Walks It Back: Obama Is Decent, Nothing To… – At last! Now, if only he’d pull down the negative ads still running and stop continuing on with the flimsy Ayers references. See also: McCain’s “Frequently Lurching Campaign”

PALIN

1. Countdown to Truth – Sarah Proclaims Own Innocence!… – Of course she does. So does her pet personnel board investigation.
2. THIS JUST IN: Sarah Palin not as bright as she looks – Quel suprise.
3. Release Of Trooper-Gate Report Hangs On GOP Cooperation – Remarkably enough, in the end, they *did* cooperate, which indicates this was not some partisan hack job.
4. Alaska Inquiry Concludes Palin Abused Powers – NYTimes.com – Fascinating that a “total vindication” that the campaign is touting is also subject to such accusations (by the same campaign) of being a partisan hack job. Maybe because it rules that Palin’s actions were legal but unethical.
5. What the Troopergate Report Really Says — TIME – That Palin’s “executive expertise” is clumsy and amateurish.
6. Ebert: Palin’s the “American Idol” candidate – I think that nails it.

OBAMA

1. ‘Barack Osama’ appears on hundreds of absentee ballots… – But it was an honest mistake, of course, not a dirty trick. Honestly. Really. Trust us.
2. Obama Thanks McCain for Admonishing Supporters – The… – Nicely said. Gracious, and followed up by campaigning on the issues.

BIDEN

1. Steven Petrow: Joe Biden’s Tears Remembered – I’ve always thought Biden was too clever for his own good, but I’ll stack his character against his opponent any time.

GENERAL ELECTOIN

1. The Gist of the ACORN Story – Much ado about not much.
2. Norm Coleman Pulling Down All Negative Ads – Another GOP pol realizes it doesn’t work.
3. Mayhill Fowler: Colorado Springs: Ground Zero for… – An interesting analysis of presidential politics down in the Springs. I’m thrilled that Colorado looks to be going blue this year.
4. Whose Obsession? – So who did send all those “Obsession” DVDs? The mystery deepens …

And that wraps it up for today’s edition. Next stop: India!

McCain tries to dial back the Obama = Traitor = Terrorist = EEEVILLLLL schtick.

McCain seems to do his level best to not portray Obama as a monster, a traitor, someone to be afraid of raising your kids under, or (eek!) an Arab. He gets scattered applause, and more than a few boos, in trying to do so.

Of course, he proceeded later on to talk about the William Ayers “connection” (again).

I’d like to think this is the honorable McCain, the straight-talking McCain, the McCain that so many people found themselves respecting after the 2000 election. Maybe it’s the Smeagol McCain, glimpsing out from behind the Gollum visage he’s taken on the past month or two. Or maybe it’s all just for show, just a reaction to the smearing not only not having a good reaction for his poll numbers, but actually hurting him among his ostensible political allies.

I don’t know. We’ll see how it translates into actual actoin, rather than halting rhetoric.

More here (via Doyce). 

More, etc., so on, so forth …

John, John, John … what is it about planetaria that you find so disturbing? Even though the whole “overhead projector earmark” thing has debunked about five different directions, we can tell that it’s something that really bothers you. Tells us about it.

Actually, something was bothering McCain today — bothering him terribly. It wasn’t the economy, the collapsing stock market, the trembling world financial markets, global warming, the situation in Georgia or Iran or North Korea.  It was, instead, the utterly clear and present mortal danger of … who threw a campaign party for him when he was running for state senate. 

Regardless of the fact that McCain isn’t content with raising the Ayers boogie-man, but has to gild the lily with fibs, and regardless of how McCain and his proxies haven’t actually explained what they think the fearful result would be of even if Obama and Ayers are best of friends (which they aren’t), the biggest question of the hour is why McCain, so appalled by this unholy and despicable relationship, so brave and straight-talking and willing to fearlessly face any foe (because he was, after all, a war hero) … why he didn’t nail Obama to the wall (or even at least bring the matter up) when he was there confronting him face to face during the Presidential Debate? As opposed to waiting until he was speaking at a campaign rally, I mean.

It is a puzzlement.

In other news about McCain: lies, lies, and, oh yeah, lies. I suppose if you lie enough, people will assume there has to be some truth in there somewhere.

I’m glad someone else noticed how McCain bailed out of the room after the debate.

Not a good day for McCain’s running mate, either. As more of the details of Troopergate continue to come out, the Alaska Supreme Court Srefused to block the Troopergate investigation, and people (well, I) laughed at her for her claim that Obama would damage “the prestige” of the office if he didn’t show “candor” and “honesty”.

Of course, it might be dangerous to laugh at Palin and McCain. Sure, their supporters have a zany sense of humor, but they can be kind of scary — though not, perhaps, as scary as their fearless leader.

Speaking of leaders, which makes me think of Obama, it’s interesting contrasting comparing the “transition” planning being done by both candidates. To wit, Obama already putting together a team, a strategy, contingencies, working groups — and McCain basically planning on winging it. That may be indicative of each campaign’s expectations of where the election is going to go.

Obama is also facing, in the face of victory, some difficult decisions about when he really starts to address the American people about what sorts of sacrifices and impact the current hard times are going to have for a while. That was a question in the first debate, and, honestly, Obama didn’t really grapple with it. McCain has it easy: “cut taxes, freeze government except for the vital national security (and maybe VA) stuff we need” is the standard GOP mantra in good times and bad. Obama has to address how much this current mess is going to interfere with his cleaning up the mess of the last eight (twenty-eight) years.

That, of course, assumes Obama wins. Certainly various localities and states — especially ones with GOP officials — are doing their darnedest to make sure that as few voters vote as possible … at least amongst certain areas, or amongst the recently (and thus most likely Democratic) registrants. All this focus on “voter fraud,” coupled with the usual dirty tricks, promises to make this a very interesting election.

And so it goes.

Things were sort of scatter-shot today, so creating a narrative is a bit of a challenge.

There’s the post-post-debate (transcript) discussion of McCain’s reference to Obama as “That One,” which has led to all sort of fun (and prescient) refererences to “That Won.” There’s the inevitable fact-checking, wherein we discover that the “overhead projector” earmark slam that McCain nattered about was actually for a replacement lighting system for the Adler Planetarium (a truly marvelous place). McCain’s clever mortgage buy-out solution is not only largely covered by the existing bail-out bill, but would pay the face value to banks while handing to homeowners the devalued equity. Even the venerated Saint General Petraeus seemed to be turning against McCain’s positions.

Oh, well, at least McCain didn’t have to worry that pundits would be criticizing him for pronouncing country names correctly. Yes, yahooism is alive and well in “Fly-over America.”

Cindy McCain continues to attack Obama for putting her son’s life in danger (what happened to “we don’t talk about our sons”?) by voting against a troop funding bill — not realizing, perhaps, that John had done exactly the same thing.

Running mate Sarah isn’t doing all that much better, as David Brooks, who only after the last debate was waxing eloquent over how exciting, fresh, spiffy, and sexy Gov. Palin is, now (less than a week later) talks about how she’s “a fatal cancer” on the GOP. Kathleen Parker, shocked by the vitriol spewed her way when she dared question whether St Sarah was ready for the presidency, continues to poke at how Palin and McCain continue themselves to rile up ugly crowds — though Palin seems to have dropped the Ayers references from her stump speech. Maybe she realized that her own “palling around” with a man considered a war criminal and domestic terrorist in many parts of the world might make people start calling her a traitor.

Another Obama slam keeps circulating, too, fed by Gov. Palin (and echoed by master of nuance, Sean Hannity), to wit that Obama libeled the military in Iraq for “air-raiding villages” and killing civilians. Never mind that it’s absolutely true, based on the testimony of such clearly treasonous individuals as George Bush and Hamid Karzai — not to mention that it’s not intended as a slam against the military in Afghanistan, but a plea to provide more troops there.

Don’t worry, though, Sarah — as you know yourself from this tearful interlude, God has personally chosen you to be VP. Though even that pales before the power of George Bush to do the impossible.

And so it goes …

Who is that short, bald stranger there?
“Maverick” is his name …  

(via Doyce)

Biggest news on the election trail in the last day or so was not the debate (initial snap polls show Obama won handily, but regardless, that he didn’t lose heavily means the campaign continues in his favor), but the way the McCain/Palin smear-o-rama (can’t talk about issues, so let’s talk about character assassination) is starting to have some effect.

But not effect on the polls, but on the uglier side of the citizenry. I mean, do they honestly want cries  of “traitor” and “terrorists” and “kill him” from their audience at their rallies? Do they enjoy shouts of “uppity Negro” and “sit down, boy” directed at black media personnel covering them? Do they really want to bring the hate-inciting rhetoric and ditto-head followers of the Right-wing shock jocks into the political debate? Have they actually sunk that sunk that low? 

Apparently so, though Cindy McCain thinks it’s Obama who’s running “the dirtiest campaign in American history” — which betrays both a woeful lack of historical knowledge as well as the sort of reflective myopia that the whole McCain campaign has displayed, projecting its own faults on others (“Obama is an angry, cranky guy!”). She also doesn’t appear to enjoy shaking hands with people.

Aside from inciting whackos to do something or another (vote for his ticket, one assumes; anything else would just be gravy), more bad news kept creeping out over Monday for McCain. For example, faced with the challenge of how he’d pay for those payroll tax credits for health care that he keeps going on about, he had to admit that the plan is to pay for it costs by cutting Medicare.  

The most startling narrative shift was, in the face of Obama’s counter-attacks on character, McCain is letting his proxies recant the whole Keating Five scandal. What makes that so bizarre is that McCain, in books and interviews and articles, has milked that whole episode as a personal, transformative event that turned him into a “reformer” — if, in fact, he’s now tarting it up as political scapegoating of him, why has he gone on at length about how he made serious mistakes? Why has he said it was the basis for his ostensible crusade against lobbyists and corruption in DC? Where’s the transformation? 

And on the topic of dodgy associations, some folks are recalling McCain’s involvement (if not leadership) in the Council Of World Freedom back in the 80s. Yeesh.

Of course, he’s also not being helped by support from Jew-baiters at Fox News or the always-entertaining James “I will never vote for him but now I support him but it’s not a an endorsement just a support of his candidacy” Dobson.

Not much news on the Palin side of the ticket, since she’s been so busy being the campaign attack dog, appealing to folks just like her to get angry at Obama and the “annoying” media. Of course, as she questions Obama’s love of country, she has her own skeletons in the closet to deal with:

Nothing new there — just a reminder. And a reminder that, given the wide spectrum of political beliefs in this country, even Palin can draw fire from those more conservative and evangelical than herself (“very anti-family” and “pro-homosexual”? Yeesh).

A few other bullets before letting you get back to it: 

• Given the current fragile make-up of the Supreme Court, there’s plenty of concern over what McCain would do when replacing likely retirees (who’ve bravely waited out the Bush Administration). But what sort of folks would Barack Obama nominate? No serious objections there from me.
• FactCheck.org has its notes on the debate last night. If we score negative points for the quality of the distortions and facts-that-aren’t, I think I’d have to give the nod to McCain as having lost here, too.
• I live in a pretty conservative (upscale suburban) area of the Denver metro area, Arapahoe Co. — Tom Tancredo country, in fact. Which makes the news that the county actually now has more registered Democrats than Republicans (barely) so startling. I mean, even if it’s just close it’s remarkable; I remember turning out for the Democratic Caucuses last winter and hearing, amidst the crowds, multiple people saying they had no idea there were so many other Democrats around. Bravo on the registration effort, Dems; I’ll be curious to see what sort of vote challenges the GOP makes in a relatively affluent area, rather than in a poorer one.

And so it goes …

AFTER THE DEBATE 

I was watching on C-SPAN. They have a policy of sticking to the picture while the principles are still on screen.

While everyone else was no doubt cutting over to talking heads, C-SPA covered the post-debate crowd stuff.

There was some initial glad-handing the crowds by both the candidates. Michelle gets out there, too. John’s doing his part, but Cindy just stands by, awkwardly.

Odd little interlude. McCain taps Obama on the arm. Obama tries to shake his hand, but McCain won’t, so instead Obama shakes Cindy’s hand.   

Margie notes Obama’s doing a lot more about shaking the hands of folks outside the front row.

And … the joy of C-SPAN, Obama stayed on the floor talking with folks a loooooot longer than McCain did. And actually talking with folks, not just shaking hands. Following up with folks who asked questions.   

Meanwhile, McCain actually disappeared after a few minutes (C-SPAN actually informed us he’d left). Barack and Michelle made the full circuit around the audience, and then continued to hang out, taking pictures with folks talking with individuals, just being there with the people. He was there a half hour after the debate, vs. five minutes for McCain.

Class act.

SO WHO WON? 

McCain avoided losing his temper.

Neither candidate made a significant stumble (aside from McCain arguing that nuclear energy is safe and clean).

Both candidates relied on talking points.

I don’t think the Town Hall format helped much. The rules of the debate prevented much direct addressing back and forth, though the candidates forced that a bit at the end.

Obama was articulate, clear, if somewhat aloof. McCain was more personable, but more aggressive, more talking-pointish, and more prone to dropping into standard lines and verbiage at the end of his statements.

Neither candidate scored a knock-out, and it was probably close to a tie rhetorically. On the one hand, that might shore up some McCain support by his not actually worsening his position. On the other hand, it wasn’t a momentum-changer. 

To that end, McCain didn’t lose, but if that’s all he did, then Obama won.

I’m going to try to be lest transcripty and more “here’s what my impressions were.” As with the VP debate, I was out at karate during, so I’m DVR-blogging …

Ah, good — C-SPAN. I love C-SPAN. Real people, sitting there, waiting for things to start, clock ticking down interminably. Reality TV. Brokaw waits for his cue (which we saw on the teleprompter).

Here we go.

You selected the questions from among thousands? Wow, Tom.

Obama polished. McCain stocky and smily. Smiling quick howdy. Obama sits down, McCain takes notes.

Brokaw’s voice has not aged well.

How do we bail out people quickly and effectively. Obama does the standard thanks. Final verdict of the last eight years, supported by McCain. Boilerplate response. #1, making the bailout work. #2 Middle class — tax cut, infrastructure projects, mortgage problems. Health care, etc. [But no quick answer given.]

McCain does the thanks thing. Totters over. Quiet resolve. “I have a plan.” Energy independence. $700bn canard again. Keep all taxes low. Stop the spending spree. $10tn debt. Reform, prosperity, peace in the world.  Need to do something about home values. I would order Secty Treas to buy up bad mortgages, renegotiate at low value. Expensive, but will stabilize home values, and that will make all well. My friends, to everyone else. Not Obama’s proposal, not Bush’s proposal.

Who to become Treas Secty? McCain declines to name a name, but has to be someone Americans identify with and believe in. Warren Buffett (an Obama supporter). Meg Whitman (eBay). Need to inspire trust and confidence. We don’t have trust and confidence in our institutions — corruption, greed, excess.

Obama — Warren a good choice. The key is that the next Secty is not just helping those at the top but the middle class. McCain and I have fundamental disagreements.   More boilerplate. Gets on a roll talking, pulling away from the question, giving talking points. Stabilizing housing prices is not enough.

Brokaw chides folks on time.

McCain question on how the bailout is going to help people (um, very similar question). No, it’s a “rescue.” Greed and excess on Washington and Wall St. I suspended my campaign to make sure there were extra protections for taxpayers (really?). Fannie and Freddie were the match. And Obama and his friends had the Fs make all those risky loans! I warned!

(Margie’s chiding McCain)

Democrats wre getting campaign contributions. Obama was a huge recipient.

(What about your campaign worker, John.)

So let’s buy up bad loans and stabilize housing pricing. Fannie and Freddie were the match. Some stood up against it. Some didn’t.

Obama: The rescue package frees up the credit markets, so that small businesses can get loans and make payroll. Correcting McCain’s history: biggest problem was the deregulation of the financial system — which McCain bragged about. Two years ago, I noted the subprime lending crisis, writing to federal leaders and told them it needed to be dealt with. McCain was all happy with deregulation. What McCain didnt mention about the Fs was that (a) it wasn’t his bill, (b) he didn’t get on until late, (c) it didn’t pass. Brings in the lobbyists on McCain’s campaign. Rescuing mortgages is now in the bailout — but the Secty needs to exercise that poewr.

So, Obama — is the economy going to get worse? No, confident. But will take leadership from Washington on regulations, better modern market controls, internatoinal stuff, and families staying in homes, and changing the culture in Washington vs lobbyists.

McCain — depends on what we do. If we stabilize the housing market — repeat repeat repeat repeat repeat. (Boy, he sure likes this one idea. He keeps dragging that in.) End corruption in Washington. Letter we wrote warning of this — and Obama wasn’t on the letter. We can fix this! America, rah! rah! rah! Give them a chance! 

Obama question: How can we trust either of you when both parties got us into this global economic crisis? Obama: …

(Margie is unimpressed with the questions — basically the same questions so far.)

… people have been acting responsible. In Washington, no — plenty of blame. But … Bush ruined the surplus. Bush doubled the national debt. Nobody’s innocent, but decificit spending on those budgets — and McCain voted on 4 of 5 of those.

So reform health care to fix budget. Energy. College affordability. Spending cuts — cutting more than I’m spending. But with new priorities.

McCain: System in Washington is broken. I’m a consistent reformer, taken on the special interests etc etc etc etc campaign finance reform … climate change … calls for bipartisanship. Obama has never taken on his leadership.

(Margie is scolding McCain again.)

Go to some watchdog orgs. Varoius tax-cut orgs. Obama has the biggest liberal spending record. $860bn of new spending! He voted for every increase in spending that I saw come across the floor (whenever you were there, John). Voted for a bn of earmarks or porkbarrel — $3mn for an overhead projector for someplace in Chicago. Look at our plans, reforms, jobs, working, economy, etc. Energy independence! Drilling offshore and nukes! I’ve been supporting those and I can eliminate that $700bn (bzzzt, bad number again).

Brokaw chides him on time.

Health, energy, entitlement reform? Highest priorities? McCain: Work on all three at once.  My friends, we cannot provide the same benefits for our young workers. We need to sit down, I have a record of reaching across the aisle. We can work on nuclear power plants. Alternate fuels! America! Rah! $700bn! Terrorists! 

Health care — struggling, but we can do them all at once, we have to. All three are compelling national security requirements.

Brokaw chides on time.

Obama: we have to prioritize (how realistic!). Energy. (He knows the price of gas.) Investment in being free from dependence on foreign oil. JFK and the moon program.   Health care #2 — bad not only for families but for businesses. #3 Education. 

But … look at records. Earmarks? Yeah, I’d like to go line by line to eliminate programs that don’t work. But we also have to look at where tax revenutes are going. $300bn tax cut — Bush cuts plus — to give to big corporations and Big Oil, that’s money out of the system.

Brokaw chides both about time.

McCain: What sacrifices will you ask people to make to get out of our woes? I will ask the American people to eliminate osme programs. We have to examine everything. Defense spending — saved taxpayers money on refueling tanker bid that was handled poorly (of course, he got support from the previously losing side). We have to eliminate earmarks — not just that overhead projector of Obama’s, but some good projects, too.   Spending freeze, except defense, VA, and “other vital programs.”   Priorities with transparency, not earmarks. 

And we can tackle health care and energy at the same time. Americans! We can do anything! Rah!

Obama: 9-11 (!) Ah, country coming together willing to do things to make us better and more unified. Bush opportunity missed was telling people to go out and shop. Leadership to tackle these problems in government, and outside. Energy: we all need to think about how we use it — more oil production, yes, oil exploration — and that includes acres they already have. Clean coal, nukes, but … conservation, too. Incentives for fuel-efficient cars from America, etc. That will require effort.

The young people are interested in service. Doubling the Peace Corps, volunteer corps in communities.

(Obama is coming across as earnest, well-spoken, a little talking-pointish. Precise, smooth, but not engaging. McCain’s your favorite, friendly, opinionated uncle, “my friends.”)

Discussion: Everyone got drunk? How will we break bad habits of too much debt and easy credit. Obama: Starts in Washington. Looking at the spending side *and* revenue. Earmarks are only $18bn. Tax cuts that give CEOs $700K tax reduction. Telling a teacher to tighten her belt when others are living large.

Across the board spending freeze is using a hatchet. We need a scalpel.

McCain: Nailing jello to the wall about Obama’s tax policy, but he wants to raise taxes.The last president to raise taxes during tough times was Hoover. (And I remember him!) His tax increases will increase taxes on 50% of small business revenue, cutting jobs, because of Obama tax increases. Let’s not raise any taxes, my friends. In favor of reducing taxes — doubling tax exemption on kids, $5K tax credit on health insurance unlike evil Obama plans.

Obama wants to respond. Brokaw doesn’t allow — but next question about entitlement programs. Brokaw — give a deadline on fixing this time bomb?

Obama: We need to. Want to in first term. But we’re not going to solve SSI and MediCare until we understand tax policies, and McCain plan bad.

Obama want to provide a tax cut for 95% of Americans. If make less $250k/yr, won’t see a dime increase. Small businesses? Only a few percent make more than that. So tax cut for all. And 50% tax credit for small businesses to buy health insurance for their workers. McCain wants to give $300bn tax cuts to large corps and the richest. That’s not fair and it doesn’t work. If we get tax polciy right, and fix the last eight years that McCain supported, we can deal with SSI and Medicare. Well-stated point.

McCain: Not that hard to fix SSI, just tough decisions. Bipartisanship has been done before — St Reagan! Obama has never taken on his party leaders.  (Margie is scolding him again.) Medicare is much tougher and complex. Need a commission! Recommendations! Like base-closing commission, make them vote it up or down.

Oh, and tax stuff. Rhetoric and record. Obama has voted to increase taxes, against tax cuts. He promised a middle income tax cut when he came to the Senate. Look at the records, rah rah rah.

How to get Congress to move fast for the environment. McCain: I’ve disagreed strongly with Bush Admin. Joe Lieberman (again, again, again) and I put forward environmental stuff. Obama is all atwitter about nuclear power waste, but I’ve been on a nuclear Nacy powered ship and it’s safe and clean!

BZZZZZZTTTT!!!

(Oh, that one’s gonna sting in the morning.)

(Bad miscalculation as well because it wasn’t an energy question but an environmental question.)

(We pause the DVR and discuss nuclear energy and its economics for a few minutes. Which segues into a discussion of France, crematoria, European real estate speculation, and other such digressions.)

We can reprocess nuclear fuel, and Obama is opposed to it, and we can do all sorts of keen green stuff, battery powered cars! And jobs! We’re the best innovators! America! Rah!

Obama: Not just a challenge but an opportunty, because it’s not just a new energy economy but new jobs and industry.   Investment. I’ve called for it. Nukes? We both agree, but … McCain says pols haven’t done anything for 30 years, and 26 years McCain has been there, and has been voting against alternative fuels. 

(Obama’s let the “environmental” question get hijacked into energy.)

Drilling? Note our demand on oil vs reserves. 

Brokaw chides candidates again on time.

Should we fund a Manhatten project on alternative energy? Or 100K garages? McCain: Pure R&D by the govt is a great idea. Bush-Cheney energy policy full of pork, Obama voted for, I voted against! Evil earmarks! Evil pork! Oil drilling offshore is vital! If nothing else, will reduce speculation. Nukes, look at the record. 

Health care – is it a commodity? Obama: Breaking family budgets, small business budgets. We have a moral commitment and economic imperative to do something.  My plan: If you have health care, keep it; will work with employer to reduce costs (prevention (Margie cheers), e-records); if you don’t, you’ll be able to buy Fedl employee class insurance, including no preexisting conditions. McCain bait-switch of $5K vs taxation of benefits, and states could not provide state regulations; and today the Chamber of Commerce condemned the McCain plan.

(The disadvantage of this sort of “town hall” is that McCain has to move a lot. And he moves like a really old man. It’s not doing him any favors.)

McCain: Health records online. “That’ll reduce ‘medical errors,’ as they call them.” (Margie is aghast.)

(Digression into discussion at home of e-medical record systems. KP has an advantage because it’s all in-house. OTOH, the Fedl Govt is a horrific source of computer systems … E-systems biggest advantage is overcoming doctor handwriting problems. Priority is portability of medical records vs privacy issues.)

Clinics! Efficiencies! Fundamentals … Obama = big government mandates! Fines! Fines on parents! I want to give a $5K refundable tax credit to go across state lines! More people will be covered! Natter, repeat, etc.

Is health care a privilege, right, responsibility?

McCain: Responsibility. We should have it for every citizen and family member. But govt mandates are always making nervous. Everyone understands responsibilities. But folks nervous about fines.  And mystery fines.

Obama: A right. In a country as rich as this … and his mother example (zing!). Recaps his plan. Denies mandates. McCain voted against SCHIP. Obama notes that it’s important for govt to crack down on insurance companies that are cheating Insurance companies will move to a state with minimal requirements for what they need.  That’s how it works in banking and Delaware. No consumer protections — deregulatoin with McCain.

Brokaw – (McCain interrupts with a chuckle)

How will economic stress affect our ability to be a peace-maker?

McCain: Strong military requires strong economy. Lots of criticism of America … but greatest force for good in the world. Peacemakers and Peacekeepers. Knowing when we can go in and when not. It requires judgment and experience.

(Did McCain actually just raise the issue of judgment about when to send in the Marines?)

Preventing genocide, terrorism. My record, from anti-troops to Lebanon, to supporting Bosnia / Kosovo / Kuwait — a record I will stand on. Obama wrong on Iraq’s surge, Georgia and Russia, and no time for OTJ training.

Obama: McCain suggests I don’t understand. yeah – How did we invade a country that had nothing to do with 9-11 while OBL is setting up camps to attack us. McCain suggested Iraq would be quick and easy. One of the difficulties is the strain on the heroic, honorable troops, but also on our budget. It will keep going up if we follow McCain’s policy. We can use that $10bn — to pay for those things that McCain hasn’t explained how he’ll pay for.

Never been a nation where economy has declined and maintained its military. Plus, we’ve squandered the diplomatic strength.

Brokaw: What is the Obama doctrine for use of force when there’s no national security issues at stake?

Obama: Moral issues at stake. If we could have stopped the Holocaust, or Rwanda, we’d have to act. (Stumbling a bit.) When we stand idly by, it diminishes us. We have to consider intervening where possible — but we can’t be everywhere all the time, which is why we have to work in concert with our allies. 

McCain: If we had done in Iraq what Obama said to set a date for withdrawal, Petraeus! War! Iranian influence! My friends! Al Quaeda! I’ll bring troops home in victory and honor! (Margie starts yelling at the TV as to “What is victory? What is victory?”) We have to say Never Again, but also need to be able to affect the situation in an effective way — need a cool hand at the tiller. Somalia debacle. Lebanon. I know that. I’ve been in those situations all my life. (Really?) I won’t take those decisions lightly. (Kind of fumbly end.)

Should the US respect Pakistani sovereignty and not go after al quaeda there?

Obama: Difficult situation, because we made a bad judgement in leaving Afghanistan off the hook in favor of Iraq. Central front on terrorism, etc, etc, boilerplate. Can’t coddle a dictator in Pakistan when he makes peace treaties with terrorists. We will expand non-military aid, but insist on their going after these guys — and if we have OBL in our sights, and Pakistan won’t act, we will.

McCain: Terry Roosevelt is my hero. Talk softly and carry a big stick. Obama is talking loudly. We should lie to Pakistan and not tell them what we’re going to do. (That’s not what he said, but effectively.) Mangles some Afghanistan history. Petraeus! Iraq success! We need to help the Pakistan govt — I’ve been to Waziristan! But not threaten to attack! Use force, but don’t

Obama wants a follow-up. McCain says go ahead. Brokaw gives in.

Obama: Nobody calling for the invasion of Pakistan. We should if they can’t or won’t. McCain suggests that this is naive.  But this is the guy who sang Bomb Bomb Iran. That’s not speaking softly. Next Up, Baghdad! Ditto. The reason Americans are unpopular in pakistan is because we supported Musharrif.

McCain: Not true. Not true. I understand about sending young Americans into harm’s way. A joke about Iran. I know about this. Obama will attack Pakistan. I’ll get OBL, I promise (really? You have a secret plan?) but I won’t telegraph my punches. I’ve acted responsibly throughout my military career and in the Senate. (Really?!)

Sr. British commander and diplomat, we’re failing in Afghanistan, we need an “acceptable dictator” — how do we reorg Afghanistan strategy.

Obama: Get Iraq to take more responsibility, move troops out responsibly, and get more of those troops into Afghanistan. Work with Karzai govt (I met him!), and we want a democracy, but one that’s resposive.

McCain: Petraeus! He’ll fix it! I’ve talked with him! It’s the Surge! Surge! Surge worked! Obama won’t admit it! Surge! Petraeus! Peace with honor!

How can we apply pressure to Russia on humanitarian issues without a Cold War?

McCain: No Cold War, but Russia is a bunch of bad kids, and I warned about Putin a long time ago. Georgia! Ukraine! Need to show moral support for them, get them into NATO, make Russians understand penalties. That will modify their behavior. G8, others. Bad, naughty Russians, and with allies we will spank them. But it won’t be a Cold War.

Obama: Can’t just provide moral support to the former Soviet satellites, but also financial and concrete assistance to rebuild economies. George seriously hurting. But also need to anticipate problems; in April, I warned about situation in Georgia. Need to anticipate the 21st Century challenges. Need to avoid the last 8 yrs or just being reactive, and McCain agreed that we coudl just muddle through in Afghanistan. And with Russia — energy is a key.

Is Russia the Evil Empire?

Obama: Evil behavior, and dangerous nationalist impulses.

McCain: Maybe. Depends on our responses. Energy a key factor. Georgia and Ukraine. Surge! (Just kidding) We can deal with them, but they need to understand they face a determined USA rah!

If Iran attacks Israel, would we commit US troops or wait for the UN?

McCain: Gratuitous CPO comment. We owuld not wait for the UNSC (with Russia and China). Iranians. Nukes! Threat! Middle East! Proliferation! Second Holocaust! Stinking Corpse! Obama wants to sit down and negotiate without preconditions. Sanctions! League of Democracies! That’ll l’arn ’em! Service and sacrifice — we cannot allow a Second Holocaust.

Obama: Gratuitous service comment. Can’t let Iran get nukes. Destabilize region, possible terrorism. Will never take military options off the table, and not let the UN have veto power. But … need all the tools at our disposal to avoid that situation. Work more with other countries, tighten sanctions, reduce energy consumption, reduce their gasoline imports (goofy). I believe in direct talks so that we can deliver direct messages. When we take that approach, we have a better chance than simply not talking to people.

Last question: What don’t you know, and how will you learn it?

Obama: Michelle is there, and she can give you a list. The presidency is never the challenges you expect, it’s the ones you don’t. Would not be here if country had not given opportunity. Family, scholarships, etc., went to great schools and succeed anywhere else in the world. The question in election, are we going to pass on to that dream to the future — (Obama hits his stride into the oratory) If we continue the last 8 years things will not get better. 

McCain: Don’t know what’s going to happen. Challenges unprecedented. Americans hurting.  Challenges around the world. Countries that we don’t know where they are.  Family of service. Know dark times. Fight for hope. Reliance on others for support. Believe in America, etc. etc. etc. Record. Steady hand on the tiller. 

And there it is. 

Amusingly they block Brokaw’s teleprompter as he wraps up.

Analysis to follow.

It hasn’t been quite a week since the last time,  but since we’re heading into a debate tonight (note to self: DVR!), here’s where the candidates know they stand:

So all but one of the sites has Obama handily with the 270 needed. One of the sites has actually dropped the Obama lead slightly, but it still gives him one of the largest margins.

Margie’s been watching these numbers a lot more than I have, and she’s been keeping me apprised as various polls show various states (a surprising number) flipping for Obama.

Now what these sites don’t yet reflect is (a) the McCain/Palin smear-surge, i.e., whether it’s working or not, and (b) the results of tonight’s debate, and any particular melt-downs from either candidate. (I may be biased, but I don’t see Obama “melting down” — underperforming and not coming off quite as town hall folksy as we know McCain can be, perhaps, but nothing that would significantly shake up the numbers here.)

I was asking a statistician of my acquaintance whether the numbers here meant that I could truly count on Obama winning (as much as one can count on anything). The statistician noted that when numbers get this high, the begin to take a life of their own — people decide to vote for a winner, and are discouraged from supporting a loser. I’m hoping that’s true …

This is all barring some sort of “October Surprise” from the Republicans, of course — but I think that the American public is so sick of that sort of thing, it would be so obvious of a gimmick that it would be largely discounted, or even cause a reverse effect. 

We’ll see. As candidates (usually the ones behind in the polls) usually say, there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s on election day. (Unless, of course, it gets thrown to the Supreme Court …)

The SNL lead-in last weekend, after the VP debates. I’ll tell you — Tina Fey is downright spooky the way she channels Palin (it would be interesting to see it the other way around).

Then we have some David Letterman (never torque off the media) fun with Gov. Palin:

In ten long pages, <i>Rolling Stone</i> reviews the careers and lives of John McCain — sometimes in his own words, sometimes in the words of his colleagues on both sides of the aisle — and paints a picture of a man who should, frankly, be allowed nowhere near the White House. From his early Navy days, to his imprisonment in Hanoi, to his post-war political career, to his campaigns for president, it’s hard to reconcile what’s there to what the common myth of John McCain is, even as recently tarnished as that myth is — save that the narrative rings frighteningly true and consistent.

If even half of it is accurate, the choice on November 4th is crystal clear. I strongly suggest reading it, especially if you are a McCain supporter.

The McCain/Palin have gone into high gear, quite openly and explicitly openly and explicitly shifting their strategy away from podunk thinks like “issues” and “policy” and in favor of — well — mudslinking, slime-smearing, and attacks on Barrack Obama’s character.

Remember, folks, it’s all about Changing Washington, as McCain and Palin keep telling us.

It all kicked off with Sarah Palin over the weekend dragging out the ol’ Bill Ayers connection to Obama. Never mind the it’s a tissue of lies and innuendo. The amazing thing is that it leaves McCain directly open to a counter-offensive noting all of his past dubious associates: Keating, Chalabi, Keating (again), Liddy, Singlaub — and, heck, even some Palin associates, including a close, personal relationship with a long-time member of a secessionist group whose founder repeatedly stated his disdain and hatred of the United States …

If that’s the course the GOP has decided to fall back to, that’s a challenge worth facing. The only way to break the back of the Rove/Atwater model of negative campaigning is to face it and defeat it. As Obama puts it:

One of the things we’ve done during this campaign: we don’t throw the first punch, but we’ll throw the last. Because if the American people don’t get the information that is relevant about these candidates and instead in the last four weeks all they are hearing about are smears and Swift Boat tactics that can have an impact on the election. We have seen it before, and this election is too important to be sitting on the sidelines. If Senator McCain wants to focus on the issues then that is what we focus on. But if Senator McCain wants to have a character debate that is one that we’re willing to have.

Ah, yes, character. Rolling Stone just released a lengthy, utterly damning article on McCain and his background. Questions keep getting raised over his well-known anger problems, his ties not just to the financial institutions that have (again) failed, but to Big Oil (and the succeeding changes in his policy positions). 

Meanwhile, the GOP has decided to turn Obama’s grass roots popularity into something scary and sinister, implying that donors under the $200 reporting mark might be foreigners and other frightening sorts.

Over in Palinworld, when she’s not being incoherent, people are asking questions why, if she’s been claiming per diem for all those nights she spent sleeping at home, it’s not showing up in her tax returns. Others are recalling a curious incident when her supposed religious devotion gave way to some good North Woods fun.

In other items that I’m too tired to try to fit into narrative paragraphs …

• Palin and Biden exchanged words during their debate on McCain’s health care “plan.” Good. It bears discussion.
• Biden has been criticized by some folks for talking about where the Constitution defines the role of the Vice President. Except, it seems, he was right.
• It’s usually not a problem when an incumbent decides to retire. It would be nice, though, if it weren’t an indictment of the political atmosphere in Washington.
• Most economists like Obama better than McCain. Now, if only more people thought economists knew what they were talking about.
• Race continues to rear its head in the campaign. While some of the racism is clear and explicit, of continued worry is the more subtle kind. Of course, the best way to defeat that, over the long haul, is to get Obama elected …

And so it goes.

The current McCain/Palin self-proclaimed slime-o-rama against Obama may turn out to be a huge tactical error. Not because the negative ads will turn off the populace against McCain (they might), not because there’s plenty of ammo for the Obama side to lob back as provoked (there is), but because, just maybe, it will clear up the question of who Barack Obama is.

A steady mantra we’ve heard from undecideds and even some Republican moderates is that they don’t feel like they can vote for Obama because they just don’t know enough about him — who he is, where he’s from, what he’s done. The info’s been out there, but it just hasn’t sunk in. That personal uncertainty has been a bigger factor than disagreement over his policies.

But now the McCain camp is forcing the issue. They want to set their own stamp on that image of who Obama is, sure, but the fact is there will now be a flurry of more information about him, his background, who he’s known, what he’s done. Misinformation will be followed by counter-information. People will be asking, and getting answered, biographical background and fact-checks. And by the time the next four weeks is done, people will know a lot more about Barack Obama — both where he’s been, and how he stands up to personal heat.

And maybe, just maybe, that will turn out to have cleared some of that uncertainty, that mystery about him. And maybe (and wouldn’t it be ironic?) that will convince some folks that they actually can vote for him.

I think I just want to leave the last clip running on a continuous loop somewhere.

See? Once upon a time John McCain used to say things like that and we thought he meant it. And maybe, once upon a time, he did.

Just do it.

With the cutting back and forth last night (on MSNBC, at least), it wasn’t always obvious, but Palin spent a lot of time (often at the beginning of her answers) checking her notes on the lectern before her. And we’re not talking about “what’s the name of the US commander in Afghanistan before I misspeak it?” kind of notes but “ah, there’s the talking point and clever quip I was told to make first” kind of notes. Over and over again. Attend:

Remember — this is the woman that McCain says he keeps consulting with for advice.

Charitably, perhaps she was trying to evoke the spirit of Ronald Reagan, himself an inveterate user of little bundles of 3×5 cards. Indeed, she might well have scored some points with the base if she’d been open about it and drawn that connection. Instead, she comes off more as a high school debater (“Um … Okay, first affirmative, plan meet advantage, Time Magazine, September 25th 2007 …”) than as … well … an executive.

(via Les)