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On the Professional Application of Probability Nomenclature

This one is, of course, for +Margie Kleerup, my in-house statistics wonk.

What Does Probability Mean in Your Profession?
(Small print: Does not apply to Nate Silver.)

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One thought on “On the Professional Application of Probability Nomenclature”

Nomemoleste Ya says:

Sat 26-Sep-15 12:30am at 12:30am

No! No! I do not want to think of work when I go home!

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12 hours ago

#DeSantis is such a performative little autocrat.

#Florida #Lgbtq

https://thehill.com/homenews/lgbtq/4621642-desantis-florida-will-not-comply-with-new-biden-title-ix-rules/

17 hours ago

Isn't it weird that we've gotten through 235 years of Presidents to only now start worrying in #SCOTUS about hypotheticals that Presidents must have total #immunity from criminal charges for fear of political blackmail? Or that they will feel "forced" to preemptively #pardon themselves before leaving office?

Isn't it weird that this has only had to be considered regarding #Trump?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/apr/25/supreme-court-trump-immunity-biden-latest-updates

3 days ago

Welcome back to the conversation, Voyager 1!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/22/world/voyager-1-communication-issue-cause-fix-scn/index.html

7 days ago

We actually keep Post-It notes on the inside of the cat food cabinet for letting others in the house know "The #Cats Lie" about not having been fed ...

1 week ago

A new recipe from Margie's Kitchen!

"Lasagna Soup"

If Garfield made soup, he’d make this soup. Of all the wildly popular American takes on Italian cuisine (spaghetti and meatballs; fettuccine Alfredo; chicken Parmesan), the latest to go viral is lasagna soup, thanks to one TikTok user with a Lego...

#recipe #soups

2 weeks ago

Time for #NoisesOff at the #Arvada Center! Some of the best theater in the #Denver area.

3 weeks ago

Abbott: US economy improving is because ‘Texas economy is doing so well’

A weird take from the guy that insists his state is *also* being continuously invaded by coordinated tidal waves of narco-terrorists, Chinese spies, Islamic jihadists, and plague-ridden walking dead.

#Texas #Abbott #border

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4579655-abbott-us-economy-improving-is-because-texas-economy-is-doing-so-well/

3 weeks ago

A #SpaceGhost #comicbook series that plays straight with this wonderful character?

This makes me so happy.

https://www.gamesradar.com/space-ghost-1-interview/

3 weeks ago

A new recipe from Margie's Kitchen!

"Pour Over Coffee Icebox Pie"

“I heard a quote that says, “Motherhood. Powered by love. Fueled by coffee. Sustained by wine.” Like any sleep deprived, hungry human, I thought what if I combined my two favorite things. Who says you can’t have wine with your...

#recipe #sweets-pies

4 weeks ago

#Arvada Center's #BlackBox production of "Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812" is bonkers, dramatic, comedic, loud, and delightful, and going for the immersive "cafe table" seats was absolutely the right idea. Alas, they close (and are sold out for) tonight.

Arvada always does great work, but this stood out. And special shout-out to Penina Eisenberg, who u/s the Natasha role beautifully.

#theater #Tolstoy #stage #GreatComet

https://arvadacenter.org/events/natasha-pierre-and-the-great-comet-of-1812

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0mwTOMNwsI

4 weeks ago

Yes, here's a #GOP message that is definitely more #Christ like than supporting #TransDayOfVisibility, amirite?

But WW2 references don't really reach today's audience that well. Maybe next time go for "We had to destroy the Gaza in order to save it." I'm sure you'll have 'em rolling in the aisles.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/31/politics/tim-walberg-gaza-nagasaki-hiroshima/index.html

4 weeks ago

Hey, #MikeJohnson !

The "central tenet of #Christianity" is "love God and your neighbor," not "throw an politically-driven hissy-fit when your top holiday moves around the calendar and intersects with another celebration or commemoration." That sounds more like the central tenet of a cult of hateful gits or political hacks. Maybe you should all do something like wear red hats or something to clearly identify yourselves.

#TransDayOfVisibility

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_31

4 weeks ago

I love #art as much as the next person, maybe more. But laws like Italy's, seeking control, restricted use, "dignified treatment," and, essentially, royalties on art that is centuries old, are just wrong.

https://apnews.com/article/michelangelo-david-statue-italy-protection-heritage-3fa1b7185fea36003e064fa6e2c309fd

1 month ago

We the People are just living too darn long, so the #GOP insists on punishing us by raising the age of #SocialSecurity retirement.

They can't do it, of course. Yet. #election2024

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republican-budget-raise-age-retirement-social-security-medicare-rcna144341

1 month ago

A reminder that one of #Trump 's priorities, in a second term, would be vengeance on anyone who he thinks dissed him (i.e., did not properly kow-tow to his leadership).

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4538333-trump-doubles-down-on-call-for-liz-cheney-to-be-prosecuted/

The views expressed by me on this weblog are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer, my church, my party, my candidate, my community, my wife, my friends, or, on occasion, myself.

Views expressed by others are, well, theirs. I reserve the right to delete them, but it’s usually better to let the marketplace of ideas hold sway, even if some packages are long past their expiry date.

Stuff I link to? Sometimes it’s because I agree with it. Sometimes because I disagree with it, but want to point (mockingly, in some cases) to my sources regardless; I have a liberal arts background; I believe in citations. And linking to stuff is what the Internet is about.

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