Okay, there’s a million-zillion things that could still go horribly, horribly wrong. But …
The trickiest part of the Iraq war will be bringing it to a completion, and making sure that it completes in a controlled fashion.
Turkey sending troops into the north? Bad sign.
Accounts of negotiations between some Iraqi officials and third countries? Bad sign.
The idea everyone’s sort of had is either a “Berlin Bunker” style of wrapping the war up, or else a “Strung Up in the Street” style of Saddam’s end, with the Iraqi army either destroyed or laying down its arms at that point.
The more other parties deal themselves in en route to victory, the messier this all becomes. Imagine, for example, if France announced that it had reached an agreement with Tariq Aziz, acting for an incapacitated Saddam Hussein, to have Hussein shipped to a third party, and Aziz take over, with promises to disarm fully, if a cease-fire is declared — would the US coalition realistically be able (or, more important, willing) to say no?
If there is a cease-fire before Baghdad is securied, it’s going to be 1991 all over again.
Turkey is denying they sent troops into Iraq. True or not, it’s a good sign. Maybe they’ll leave quietly.
Were France to try the little ploy with Aziz we just say, “No.” Aziz is part of the old regime and we are there to run them out.
The last plan from the whitehouse that I read stated that they were going to keep many of the Baathist in power because they have knowledge of how things work (just like GDR with the NAZI’s and Japan with the Emporer after WWII). Aziz might be one of the people that the’ll keep around, since he is the only non-tirkit(sp?), Christian member of the government.
Aziz also has both foreign policy experience with US officials going way back — and he’s had family members in Hussein’s dungeons before. We’ll see.
Damn. How many people has Saddam thrown into the dungeons if he can’t find a potential ambassador without such family ties?
Aziz probably knows better than to throw in with the French.
Actually, it’s my understanding that’s been Saddam’s MO — the best way to guarantee loyalty among those close to you is demonstrating that you can and will torture their kids and family.