Bulges

It’s difficult to write about particular goings-on up-to-the-second on the war (go to the Command Post for that). But I’ve been scratching my head ever since I heard of a big column of Republican Guard units headed south out of Baghdad.

Sure, maybe there’s some desire to support the units fighting in Nasiriyah, or even Basra. More likely the former, since there’s a column moving out of Basra, too (possibly a coincidence, or for another purpose). [UPDATE: Okay, the Basra column is heading in the least useful direction conceivable, so who knows about that.]

But it’s puzzling, since everyone, our side included, knows that urban defense is going to be a lot more effective in slowing the US, and in creating geopolitical conditions (civilian casualties) that might pressure the US to halt, or pull back, than an open stand. Out in the open, even though the fighting may be fierce, the Iraqis simply cannot stand.

Of course, it might be a ruse by the commander of those forces to duck out of Baghdad (having convniced whoever’s in charge that this would be a great strategy) so that he can surrender.

Or it might be that whoever’s in charge is just a lunatic.

Me? It think it’s the Battle of the Bulge.

The Ardennes battle was Germany’s last great hurrah in WWII. Scraping together all the men, materiel, and petrol that they could, they launched a late December attack through the Ardennes (“Again? But that trick always works!”), seeking to drive to Antwerp, cut the Allied forces in two, and show enough gumption that the Allies would sue for peace. It was a desperate last stand, a Theoden-riding-out-the-gate kind of thing, and it was timed to the weather.

After all, the Allies ruled the air. Even if the Germans could muster greater ground force than the Americans in a given spot, Allied air power — bombers, fighter-bombers, Mustangs with rockets — would chew them up quickly.

With storms moving in, the Germans advanced …

They lost of course. There wasn’t enough gas. There was unexpected resistance in places like Bastogne. Patton managed to pivot his army in place and march north faster than anyone would have expected.

And, most of all, the weather eventually turned. And the stalled German forces were chewed up quickly by the Air Force.

The Baghdad regime is into big gestures, machismo. Hunkering down in Baghdad may be the wisest move, but it’s still a defensive one. And some will consider a defensive war to be lost, which is why the Iraqi forces that are fighting have been fighting so aggressively.

There’s a big sandstorm sweeping across Iraq right now. American forces on the ground can still move and are, but it’s grounded a lot of close support air power, including Apache helicopters and A-10 tank-killers.

I can just imagine someone, or someones, saying, If we move now, we can send these forces south, cut off the American supply lines, reinforce Nasiriyah, deal the Americans a huge bloody nose, make them stop, reconsider, pause — and let world opinion and domestic fears halt George Bush in his tracks. But if we’re going to do it, we have to do it now, while the winds are blowing …

It’s not going to work. There are ground forces that can stop it, and, just as important, even if the Apaches and Warthogs are grounded, there are plenty of B-52s to simply turn the highway south from Baghdad into something a lot wider and a lot bumpier. It will mean more civilian casualties along the way, but they can be stopped. It will mean more Coalition troops killed, too, but they can be stopped. And then, barring WMD, Bagdhad will be that much easier to take.

It’s the Ardennes 1944 all over again. Only with sand, not snowflakes. It won’t work, but it will be a bloody mess.

But when you’re desperate, you look for desperate ways out, and when you can’t back down, you puff up mightily and go for brass ring. They can only shoot you once, after all.

Which ends the only military prediction (such as it is) that you’re likely to see here. I may well be — even probably am — wrong. But it makes sense to me.