In 2004, thirteen states passed constitutional amendments declaring marriage as being one-man+one-woman. Still more similar bans are on the ballot this year (in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin) — but in a lot of cases they’re having trouble finding support.
Colorado’s first-in-the-nation ballot proposal to create same-sex domestic partnerships had strong support in a recent poll. At the same time, polls in three of the eight states that will vote on banning same-sex marriage show the measures either trailing or leading narrowly. “It could be a watershed year,” said Carrie Evans, state legislative director at the Human Rights Campaign, a gay and lesbian advocacy group.
Jim Pfaff, state policy director for the conservative group Focus on the Family, disagrees. He says all same-sex-marriage bans will pass because voters “believe that marriage is the union of one man and one woman.”
Any victory for gay groups would be unprecedented. Voters have approved each of 19 proposals for state constitutional bans on same-sex marriage; support has averaged 70%. The questions began appearing on ballots in 1998 after a Hawaii court struck down the state’s same-sex-marriage ban. Now, well-run opposition campaigns and growing acceptance of homosexuality are eroding support for such bans, pollsters say.
In Arizona, the most recent poll on a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage showed 51% of registered voters were opposed. Just 38% supported it. A poll in July in South Dakota showed a similar measure trailing 49% to 41%. “We have a very good chance of killing this,” said Ken Clark of Arizona Together, which opposes the measure. Cathi Herrod of Project Marriage Arizona, the group that got the amendment on the ballot, predicted it would pass because U.S. voters have always approved
such measures. The Arizona measure is called Proposition 107.In Colorado, a mid-September Rocky Mountain News poll showed 58% supported a ballot measure to create domestic partnerships that would give same-sex couples many rights of married couples, such as health-insurance benefits and hospital visitation. The poll showed 38% opposed it. A Colorado ballot issue to ban same-sex marriage was favored by 52% to 42%.
I don’t know that I would assume that public attitudes are shifting. Presumably the states that passed them were the “low-hanging fruit” (so to speak) — places that were most eager and willing to do so, and so got national organizations behind their passage. One would expect greater difficulty over time. Further, as Colorado shows, there’s still support to ban same-sex marriage — but also greater acceptance of recognizing same-sex relationships and providing them similar rights (and responsibilities)
to marriage.
Americans are torn about recognizing same-sex couples, said Scott Keeter of the Pew Research Center. A Pew survey in July showed 56% of respondents opposed gay marriage, but 54% favored civil unions.
Bucking that tide is the trouble that, on the other hand, Arizona is having, where Prop. 107 would prevent any legal recognition or privileges being given to same-sex (or unmarried) couples (a similar ballot measure in Colorado didn’t get enough signatures to make the ballot).
Here’s hoping for some good (or less bad) news come election night.