I know it is rank superstition, but I have been very, very, very reluctant to express my predictions for this particular election — since I am certain that as soon as I do so, I will be grossly disappointed at every turn.
That said, I think it pretty likely that the Democrats will retake the House of Representatives. To my mind, that counterbalance will be more than sufficient to put the brakes on a lot of the current Administratoin’s shenanigans. The chances of taking the Senate are much more slender, and I suspect (though hope otherwise) that the GOP will hold onto that chamber, barely.
To the extent that the Dems succeed, it will still be by a fragile majority, and the result of some election year “throw the bums out” mentality and scandals that cannot be counted on for 2008. The Dems will need to solidify their hold by showing that they are the party of something other than Anyone But Bush — showing that they can lead, not just mill about and throw rocks at the windows.
And it’s worth noting that even that fragile majority may not hold together on all issues. A lot of the Dems have been running toward the middle and even beyond. It can’t be assumed that the traditional liberal agenda will somehow be unanimously pursued, party loyalty or not. And, of course, regardless, Bush still holds the executive and will for another two years.
It will be interesting to see if the Dems maintain or escalate the partisan processes that the GOP themselves escalated — the exclusion of minority involvement in the legislative process or paying even lip service to compromise and bipartisanship. I hope the Dems are better than the GOP in that way, even if the temptation to go the eye-for-an-eye route is a strong one.
And the GOP? It depends, to some degree. If fully out of power in the legislature, they become the opposition, and can more afford to simply shill for the White House. They can also squawk hypocritically over being left out of the process.
If they do retain power in the Senate, or even [insert conspiracy theory here] both houses, what’s the next step for the GOP? Do they grab while the grabbing is good, suddenly aware of their political mortality and realizing that if they’re going to get an agenda through, it had better be soon? Will they delusionally take any sort of minimal victory as a declaration of unbridled support from the people? Or will they accept this squeaker as a lesson learned, a wake-up call, a reminder that
2008 is just a couple of years down the line, and that they’d best clean up their act and broaden their base if they want to lead in the future?
Regardless, neither side is going to have a “mandate” — and that’s probably just as well. The electorate is tired of what the GOP has been doing for the last decade, but they don’t necessarily expectthe Dems to do much better. If both parties are smart, they’ll work on building up trust in themselves. If they’re both dumb, they’ll continue the partisan knife-fighting of (especially) the past twenty-five years and turn off all but the most rabid of their supporters.
I wait with bated breath.
I find it amusing (or something less beneficent) that Bush made a speech castigating the pundits for having already decided the outcome of the election, when he has repeatedly said that the Republicans are going to be victorious.
I really do hate hypocrisy.
But he is, after all, the Decider … 😛
I won’t single out Bush for this, since any time the pundits are predicting one side or the other will win, there are folks on the losing side who moan and gnash their teeth about how the pundits / media / talking heads are deciding the election.
The danger, of course, is that if Side X is going to lose, the voters for Side X might stay home, figuring it’s not worth it, which not only makes it a self-fulfilling prophecy, but endangers other issues (ballot propositions, for example) that Side X supports.
Of course, Side Y’s supporters might become complaisant, too, leading to the opposite outcome.