This is a hard post for me to write, because, rational or not, I keep expecting Disaster to Strike, and Defeat to be Seized the Teeth of Victory — whether by GOP chicanery, Democratic self-destructive ineptitude, or the fearsome idiocy of the populace. If I talk about Obama being ahead in the election, my personal political karma will single-handedly send his campaign down in flames.
But for all the screaming and yelling and wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst the Democrats in the past few days, as the expected McCain post-nomination poll bump ran its course, one thing hasn’t really changed all that much: the expected electoral college vote. And that’s a heck of a lot more lopsided in Obama’s favor right now than the polls indicate.
- Electoral-vote.com: Obama 281, McCain 230, Ties 27
- ElectionProjection.com: Obama 278, McCain 260
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Obama 293, McCain 245
- Pollster.com: Obama 243, McCain 179, Toss-up 116
Obviously a bit of variety there, depending on how the close states are being tallied — but it remains good news on the Obama side of things, bounce or not. As noted here, where the bounce has occurred for McCain, it was mostly in the red states, which he already had. That gets him poll numbers but not necessarily much in the way of added electoral votes.
That all said, it’s two months to the election. The margin is not insurmountable for McCain. Plenty of time for lots of movement in the voting, so neither side should be complaisant … nor should anyone, especially the Dems, be despairing. Yet.
After the last two elections – our fearless leader’s expectations aside – I am afraid to hope.