Looking at the various data trends, it seems to me that the numbers do an interesting dance with elections and the ascendancy of GOP vs Dem control in national government or influence. It's not so much, I believe, people actually changing their minds, but being influenced on the edges by the rhetoric they listen to.
If so, that might indicate a rocky time for the Republicans going into the next election cycle. If Obama is a lame-duck president, he's also not seen (except in the rhetoric of those whose fortunes lie with convincing people of it) as an existential threat to America — and, thus, by extension, liberal/Democratic causes aren't seen in such a dire light.
Of course, the cycle is still young, and the clown car of GOP candidates hasn't been winnowed down enough to make it an Us vs Them Fight for America's Survival against the Democratic nominee. And both these abortion polling numbers and when you actually start to ask folk questions about real-life examples, indicate that the average American remains very conflicted over abortion — not pleased with the prospect of it being used in what they fear is a libertine fashion, but also leery of government getting too involved in something so personal, and with a mix of opinions when it starts to strike close to home.
One can't argue with the fact that the past 15 years have seen a huge swing toward more liberal views of many other social/family issues – gay marriage being the most obvious. Abortion has held pretty steady.
+Charles Carrigan True. I wonder why that is? Has the Pro-Life movement been that effective in holding back change in attitudes? Is abortion fundamentally different in some fashion (dealing with questions of body control vs life-and-death)?
I've wondered the same, but of course I'm on a different side of most of these issues than you are. I don't know why people who have changed their attitudes on so many issues have apparently not changed on this one.
+Charles Carrigan I wonder if part of it is that there's apparently a divorce between the broad philosophical stands (pro-life vs pro-choice) and how people actually judge individual cases when provided details (or when it strikes close to home). Perhaps, also, post-Roe, enough people know someone who's had an abortion that the "I don't know any gays, thus they must all be demons, until I meet them myself" sort of effect doesn't apply.
I.e., the issue is sort of messy, personal, and largely resolved in a complicated range of compromises, thus less movement, esp. as the broader philosophical stances are both oversimplified and co-opted by the two-party tribalism we currently suffer from.
I have heard experts mention the inclusion of members of the LGBT on TV/Movies and in our daily lives has made the general public more aware of gay people in their everyday lives. This may account for some of the change in attitudes. But abortion continues to be kept private (for some obvious reasons) and keeps those who have an abortion, for whatever reason, in the shadows. And I can imagine that being especially true for women who are on the more conservative side of things.