It's still to early to bet on how the rest of the GOP primary season will go, but the major campaigns (and major SuperPACs) are all figuring out how things might go if the first balloting in Cleveland doesn't deliver a majority for any one candidate. They're also, in many cases, figuring out how to make sure that, even if it does, they aren't stuck with a Trump (or a Cruz).
Interesting times.
Reforms in the latter half of the 20th Century, especially post-60s, were designed to make a presidential convention a coronation. No smoky back-room deals, no deadlocks or multiple ballots or desperate attempts to sway the delegates on the floor, as had been seen in decades and centuries past. All the deals were, if you will, to be concluded by then, making the convention less of a news event and more of a multi-day commercial for the party.
The GOP leadership face a huge challenge this year, though, with neither of the top-running candidates being their ideal (even if tolerable), and both thought to have serious problems to win the general election. The idea of a brokered convention has become very real, though not yet inevitable.
Trump's The Art of the Deal may face its greatest test in Cleveland. If he had the plurality of delegates, would he be willing to step down "for the good of the party," and for what price?
The Dems could potentially face a similar situation, except for a few differences. Having only really two candidates in the race makes a deadlock much less likely. And the super-delegate rules the Dems have let the party establishment put their thumb a bit on the scales in favor of Clinton, albeit they can only exert limited pressure without facing a rebellion. It's a problematic setup, but it probably does mean a less contentious convention.
The GOP would love to have a super-delegate setup that has the same latitude (they appoint super-delegates, too, but they are obliged to vote, first ballot, with their state). But they not only face problematic candidates but a party faithful that might truly blow a gasket if the convention politicking and maneuvering and rules-lawyering get too overt.
If this goes all the way to Cleveland, it's going to be popcorn-worthy indeed.
Campaigns secretly prep for brokered GOP convention
Candidates, outside groups and party officials are quietly maneuvering for a nomination fight that goes all the way to the bitter end.
