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Why, yes, you can save money by increasing the number of uninsured

This is, supposedly, a selling point for the Trump Administration to conservative Congressional Republicans — it's okay to make health insurance unaffordable for people (through net decreases in tax credits, through higher rates for the elderly, and by choking off Medicaid) if you can save federal money.

I mean, that fleet of Donald J. Trump class Nuclear Aircraft Carriers isn't going to just build itself, you know.

But it's not good news for all those people (including the President) who keep insisting that more and more people will be able to afford health insurance under the AHCA. Because they won't.

(HHS Secretary Price says the CBO analysis is unfair because he has lots and lots of other good ideas on how to make it all better and give access to puppies and rainbows for everyone. Which is very nice, but the CBO doesn't score separate things that will be proposed and approved all together in a single package. All they can do is say, "If you pass this bill, this is what we think will happen.")

Some folk think this spells enough political trouble for the AHCA as to doom it.[1] I think that's wildly optimistic, sadly. That budget savings is going to pull a lot of conservatives in, and worries about uninsured rates going up will be willingly handwaved into the future by most moderates rather than face the punishment for breaking party discipline.

The CBO report parallels a lot of other analyses that have already been done, echoing a lot of the arguments that have against the AHCA, but as long as Secretary Price can speak of "access" as if it meant anything, and as long as President Trump is busy yammering about bigger and better and shinier and more people covered even if they aren't, then the GOP's strategy looks like it is still working.

——

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/how-republicans-can-win-by-making-their-peace-with-obamacare/519429/




Health Bill Would Add 24 Million Uninsured but Save $337 Billion, Report Says – The New York Times
The judgment by the Congressional Budget Office did not back up the president’s promise of providing health care for everyone but may help bring in rebellious conservatives.

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