Okay, that was a lot more enjoyable an evening of returns-watching than I had feared it might be. Well done, America.
Of course, it’s not over ’til it’s over. Some of the races that looked hopeful last night (looking at you, CO 4) look tighter this morning. But overall, retaking both chambers of Congress and (I believe) a majority of Governorships in the nation, shows a massive success by the Dems.
I don’t kid myself that this is the gateway to a new paradise, but it’s certainly a check on the downward spiral to hell.
So let’s ask some questions so I can give my as-uninformed-as-anyone-else answers.
Was this a Blue Wave or a Red Wipeout?
Did the Dems win big because people were engaged by their ideas, or because people revulsed by the ideas coming from the GOP? Clearly it was about change, but how much of it was for progress, and how much about a return to normal?
Why not both? There were people who voted Dem (or didn’t vote GOP) because Trump and his MAGA office-holding enablers went “too far.” There were people who want things back the way they were in 2020, or 2012, or 2008 … or 1992. And there were people who want to see significant social progress across a variety of areas.
Assuming everyone voted (or didn’t vote) for one reason, even if that’s how the media will drive the story, is a formula for disappointment and miscalculation and misinterpretation.
What does this actually mean?
With majorities in both chambers of Congress, the Dems are in a position to actually now make that branch act as a check on and balance to the Executive. Trump’s greatest successes have come from his being willing and able to do anything he wanted, even ignoring Congressional power, and the GOP leadership nodding in approval or fear. That dynamic has now changed.
So Trump can still bleat out all the EOs he wants, but there is now a body that can (and, presumably, will) take action against them, even in court. Ditto for the Administration simply sitting on legislated funding for things Trump dislikes.
Those Dem majorities in Congress are also large enough to allow some internal debate within the Dem caucuses without causing everything to fall apart. Expect a lot of argument over progressive vs. centrist viewpoints, leaning left, leaning right, etc. Hopefully that will lead to a synthesis that improve the nation overall (and garner national approval in 2028 and beyond). Worst case: a fractured Congress and fractured Democratic base that lets control slip from its fingers, uselessly.
The majorities are, at least, large enough that potential spoilers like Fetterman are blunted. We’ve seen that song way too often with one- or two-seat majorities.
It’s also a huge positive that Senate rubber-stamping their advice and consent for Presidential appointments — to federal departments or the judiciary — will stop. Expect, of course, even more “assistant” / “deputy” / “temporary” / “interim” shenanigans from Trump — but expect much more focused and effective push-back on those tactics.
The majority power on Congressional committees will mean the power to investigate under the rocks of corruption that have cropped up all over Washington, many of them with Trump names on them.
Will we see impeachment attempts — against Trump and/or his inept or corrupt cronies like Hegseth? We should, because accountability is important. But Congress needs to be seen as doing more than just fighting against Trump; it has to be fighting for something. Next election cycle, people want to see results both destructive and constructive.
To that end, the Dem majorities in Congress are not large enough to override vetoes — unless more of the congressional GOP regrow a spine or see the electoral writing on the wall. Much of what the Dems want to do will face limits by veto power and cloture rules in the Senate (the “filibuster”).
To a degree, the populace will tolerate that. But there still need to be results that can be pointed to come 2028, and that’s going to be a real challenge.
To that end, there will be renewed calls to get rid of the filibuster. Those calls will ignore how that tool actually provided one of the main methods of opposition to the GOP over the last two years. If there’s a lesson to be learned here, in my opinion, it’s that the tide always changes. Someday, maybe soon, those in power will be out, those out of power will be in — so the Dems in the Senate need to weigh carefully the advantage of “getting things done today” against the advantage of “stopping things being done tomorrow.”
Money, money, money
The Right poured unthinkable amounts of money into this election. In many of the highest-stake areas, they lost, both because of crappy candidates (Ken Paxton!) and because of a countervailing surge of voters.
Of course, even the massive funding Elon Musk threw away is just a rounding error in his overall wealth. Still, there’s some pleasure in seeing that money isn’t the only thing that matters.
But it does still matter. And the Dems can’t assume the sort of turnout every election. And if folk like Musk are willing to spend that level of money to twist the system to their purposes and profit, how else besides campaign adverts will they be willing to spend it?
This is, in many ways, the most profound challenge American democracy faces. This blue wave doesn’t change that at all, except to buy us some time.
What does this mean anything for the 2028 (!) presidential race?
On one level, even with the above limits, the Dems have to actually do something. Whatever the agenda, this was very much a “we don’t like what the status quo has become” tidal shift, which means failure to change that status quo in a successful direction will hurt their chances next presidential election.
Progressive changes, of course, will lead to the same squawks of “commie radicals!” from the Right, while Centrist changes, of course, will lead to significant disappointment and disaffection in some of the groups that led to this blue wave. There are lots of chances for missteps, and the Democratic leadership in the past has shown they’re more than happy to make them. At least they will be helped by how inept and disliked the current GOP White House is.
Beyond that, though, what’s happened in 2026 doesn’t mean as much for 2028 as one might think. It shows the GOP/MAGA movement can be beat — not unimportant, to be sure — but a lot of what that race in two years will be will come down to who the candidates actually turn out to be, on both sides. Will the Dems mine from the past, pick someone new, weaken themselves through internecine warfare? Will the GOP double-down on MAGA, recruit from Trump’s orbit, or try to put a fresh face on things?
One positive for 2028 — there will now be a further a restraint on what the Executive (if not the Judiciary) can do to suppress votes and corrupt the process in their favor.
One thought worth remembering, I think: a lot of GOP candidates showed their true colors this election, even beyond their celebration of Trumpism. Every soundbite of every racist attack, every crude intolerance, every gleeful enjoyment of punching down, should be kept in storage and replayed hourly if they ever pop their heads up again. With luck, a generation of MAGA sociopaths has disqualified themselves from office for the foreseeable future.
Of course, I thought the same of Donald Trump in 2020.
What does this mean for the next two months?
There will be a massive push by Trump and, presumably, the current GOP leadership in Congress, still in the majority, to flood the calendar with new appointments and legislation during the lame duck period, while they still maintain control. It’s going to be a tumultuous time, only restrained to a degree if we see a united Democratic opposition and if some of those Republicans, seeing the writing on the electoral wall (or being lame ducks themselves) put the brakes on those last-ditch efforts.