Scott quotes a Robert Reich column on the coming American Apocalypse if the Bushies get reelected. Freed from the bonds of having to win the next election, they all go mad, mad I tell you, and go on a war-and-civil-suppression spree that makes … well, that makes Germany in the 30s and 40s look like a piker.
I don’t think that’s any more likely an apocalyptic vision than the idea that Kerry will turn over control of the US government to the UN, and that wild bands of naked lesbian witches will be allowed to sacrifice white baby boys on alters made of crushed SUVs, the gas-guzzlers’ disarmed owners having already been strung up by … well, you get the idea. It’s the same sort of partisan paranoia that had folks seriously asserting that Clinton would use Y2K to declare martial law and take over the country forever. They even had sightings of all those black helicopters, and descriptions of the new Domestic Stormtroopers uniforms and everything. And when Y2K didn’t produce a coup by the Clintonistas, well, it was then all a big trick to get things ready for the inevitable coup …
To my mind, there are two more interesting (and realistic) election questions, short- and long-term:
- Who will Kerry choose as a running mate? And how will that choice impact how people see him as a candidate?
In some ways, Kerry’s at a bad disadvantage for having won the nomination so quickly. True, he’s not being beat up daily by Dem rivals. But even though the party has (ostensibly) rallied behind him, he’s still only the “presumptive nominee,” and now is sitting out there by his lonesome. He has some congressional allies and party flacks who will stump for him, but his campaign hasn’t really been able to take off yet, because he’s just one man.
This is why premature crowing by some conservatives about how Bush has this locked up is wishful thinking at best, just as it was when Kerry’s polling numbers were stronger than Bush’s a few months back, and the Dems were crowing about how they had things locked up. Anything can happen between now and November, domestically and internationally, that could push the electorate one way or the other. When the Dems were actively in the primary cycle, their general beating-up of one another paled in comparison to their universal criticism of Bush — and Bush’s numbers went down. Now that Kerry (despite all the air time being given him) is on his own, and his numbers are sinking.
Because it’s not just face time that has an impact, but the illusion of consensus. If one person says something five times, we begin to tune it out. If five people say it once, we think, “Hey, if they all believe that, there must be something to it.”
So one normally trivial — but this time crucial — step will be the selection of a VP candidate by Kerry. As Kerry’s running mate, the VP will be yet another voice, and one who can be the “attack dog” in the campaign without making Kerry look either nasty or whiny (which is always a danger for presidential candidates, and for Kerry more than most). It will double the number of candidates “on message” before the news. And it will add another dimension to Kerry’s candidacy — which is already looking a bit shopworn, grand oratorical stylings notwithstanding.
And, let’s face it, the Dems can certainly come up with someone better (or at least more personable) than Dick Cheney. Which brings us to …
- Assuming Bush wins (and assuming we’re not all working in death camps as slave laborers in a Choking Smoke Factory to poison the planet by ’08), who in the GOP is lined up to run for that party in the next election? No Republican congressional leaders stand out. Cheney, even if he survives that long, has the popular appeal of Attila the Hun. I don’t see any of the current administration being ready for it by ’08, though both Powell and Rice are possibilities in ’12 (assuming they don’t get tapped as VP before then).
Some new star may become visible in the hypothetical Bush second term, and certainly potential candidates in the Senate and Governors’ Mansions of the nation will start to emerge before then. But at the moment, there’s pretty much nobody on the horizon. Heck, even for those in the Evil Dynastic Conspiracy Biz, Jeb would probably have to wait at least until ’12 for a run, and that’s a long time …
And that’s where it all comes back around to the initial essay. Because the election cycle never actually ends, and if the Neo-Con Mad Dogs and Religious Right Mullah-Wannabes somehow think (or are thought to think) that a Bush re-election gives them carte blanche, there are quite a few House Representatives who do face another election in two years. Presidential “mandates” are extraordinarily short-lived beasts, and a second term mandate tends to become a lame duck presidency with startling speed. And as much as I dislike the same party dominating the White House and Capitol Hill, such unity is rarely as monolithic as it looks on paper.
Of course, if the whole election process is then deviously short-circuited, then you could, perhaps, argue that the Bad Guys could stay in office forever (once they ditch hapless dupe evil mastermind Dubya, assuming the Constitution doesn’t get amended or suspended or tossed out). But that all presupposes a quick, powerful, and effective conspiracy, all this from an administration that evidently wasn’t “clever” enough to plant WMD evidence, or blackmail the French and German leadership into going along on Iraq (despite there being plenty of dirt to do so), or simply assassinate intransigent Middle Eastern foreign leaders until they were all willing to sell oil to Haliburton and Enron and Exxon for $5/barrel.
I don’t buy it, any more than I bought the black/blue/white helicopters and UN takeover of a disarmed US on 1 January 2000. Conspiracy Theories and Impending Doom-saying rarely accomplish more than fear mongering. And I seem to recall that used to be the charge that Bush’s opponents used to make about him.
A couple of flies in your ointment:
First off, most members of the House are in “safe” districts that are almost never in “play”. It would take a great deal of outrage for there to be any kind of significant turnover. Only a third of the Senate is in play every two years (and this is a good place to see what the Voters in this Country are thinking). The Senate and the Presidency are the only real places any kind of change can occure.
Secondly, the SCotUS doesn’t seem to be able to “define” what gerrymandering is anymore. And it has yet to decide if mid-decade, or even multiple mid-decade redistrictings are constitutional or not (it really depends on O’Conner).
As to the ’08 question…
Powell (lying war criminal) is too fond of following orders to put himself in a position to be President.
Rice (incompetent lying weasel) would be damaged goods that may even be beyond Rove’s ability to spin.
That leaves the following cast:
Jeb Bush (a bush)
Owens (a Bush clone)
Santorum
Zell Miller (just a quick change of parties since he already is a GOPer)
Racicot
Gov. “Goodhair” Perry
Gov. Huckaby
Lizzy Dole
Gale Norton
John Warner
Jeff Sessions
McCain (again, unless running against a Rove opponent)
And at least 5 or 6 from the House
As to the Reich article…
A worse case scenario (but 17 years at the Flats taught me to come up with the worst case scenario and you’ll never be disappointed) at best, but nothing that isn’t spewed forth on the AM dial, FOX, the enablers at the NY Times, and other outlets daily. Reich just does a good job putting it (the musings of Norquist and AIM/PNAC) all in a concise format. As the political pendulum continues it’s rightward swing, some of the items in the article are a distinct possibility.
Though war with Iran and Korea are off the table unless the Draft is reinstated. Though there has been talk of doing that (Hagel R-NE).
“…But that all presupposes a quick, powerful, and effective conspiracy, all this from an administration that evidently wasn’t “clever” enough to plant WMD evidence, or blackmail the French and German leadership into going along on Iraq (despite there being plenty of dirt to do so), or simply assassinate intransigent Middle Eastern foreign leaders until they were all willing to sell oil to Halliburton and Enron and Exxon for $5/barrel. “
The current regime are all Straussians. They knew that they didn’t need to plant WMD’s, just keep playing Calvinball. There was no need to blackmail other governments.
Also, $5 a barrel oil only benefits the people of the U.S. not the people that pay for the elections. The higher the price of oil the higher the profits. Enron will still profit from an unregulated power industry, and Halliburton (and others that had been banned from government contracts until things “changed” in 2001) et al are still busy feeding at the public trough.
Yet all the prognosticating I did, vis a vis Iraq and the total ineptitude of ShrubCo came to pass.
You’re too willing to believe that these folks aren’t as bad as they really are. 2000 was a wake up call, and too many people still refuse to believe otherwise.
It’s not about black helicopters; it’s about subverting the US government to their own agendas. Reich lays it out, and his own crystal ball is simply an extension of what’s already happened.
Believe me, I don’t want to be able to say, “See, I told you so.” But I truly believe this will happen.
Oh, Jeb! is the heir-apparent. Shrub is on record as stating he wants his brother to follow him.
And Jeb! is even scarier, as he’s the smart one, and a member of the PNAC cabal.
The other big Draft supporter right now seems to be Rep. Rangel (D-NY).
As to the list of candidates, I don’t see many active possibilities at the moment except Jeb (and I don’t think the population is that interested in immediately succeeding one Bush with another, regardless of other differences) and Owens.
Rangel did to prove a point; he actually doesn’t want a draft, but that’s missed by the national media.
Rangel supported it back in 2003, and he was soundly poo-pooed over it. Things like it was insulting to the troops to suggest that a draft was needed. It wasn’t until a GOPer started to float the idea that it had any legs.
Yeah…
and what Scott said.
Rangel (and Hegel) are being roundly pooh-poohed for the Draft idea now, too.
But, you see, the conclusions you can draw from any White House action are based on the preconceptions you bring in. If the WH supports a Draft proposal, than it would be preliminary to PNAC! Gone! Wild! throughout the Middle East and Asia. If the WH doesn’t support it, it’s because they Don’t Want To Admit They Were Wrong About Iraq. If oil prices go up in September, it’s proof that Dubya has turned the world against us, or that he’s looking for a few extra last-minute dollars for his energy industry cronies. If oil prices go down in September, well, it’s all a secret deal with Prince Bandar …
As to your prognosticating, Scott, was that the 17,000 troops dead prognostication, the Code Red Martial Law prognostication, the Use of Chemical Weapons prognostication, the Shooting War with the Kurds prognostication, the Going Nuclear prognsitication, the Nightmare in Baghdad prognostication, the World War 2.5 prognostication, the War Starts in 1/2004 prognostication, the 10-15,000 troops dead prognostication, the War Starts in Fall 2002 prognostication …?
Not that your prediction rate is wildly worse than a lot of people (myself included, which is why I try to avoid making too many predictions). But saying, Yet all the prognosticating I did, vis a vis Iraq and the total ineptitude of ShrubCo came to pass, seems a bit overblown.
Look, to a certain degree I’m being contrarian here. I’d argue about a similarly overblown analysis of what the next four years will be under Kerry (Leftists! Gone! Wild!). And, yes, I’m not as willing to believe that most people are as bad as their opponents portray them as, left or right. I don’t see Reich’s analysis as being any more realistic than Harlan Ellison’s Nixon-era prognostications about where the country was going, or the similarly super-heated rhetoric of the ’96 election regarding the Evils To Come in the Next Clinton Administration (Hillary! Gone! Wild!).
Now, as cautionary tales of what we need to conceptually watch out for (social conservative trends, civil rights, bad economic policies, foolhardy international adventures, irresponsible businessfolk, self-serving politicians), that I can see. But as realistic forecasts of What Lies Ahead, or even as a worst case scenario within three sigmas of probability? No.
I’m glad we lost so few troops in the initial invasion. I freely admit to having been off on those figures.
But. The other thread that’s always run through my feelings on things has been this: we have no plan. Everything was seat of the pants, with insufficient reasons for the invasion. Just what really is said in the Energy Task Force documents? Remember, there was a document showing how to parcel out the oil fields.
World War 2.5 is happening, after a fashion. Not a shooting war with Iranian divisions rolling across the border while the Turks put the slap-down on the Kurds, but you can’t deny that the region has gone to hell in a handbasket in ways those of us who pointed out the history of the region said would happen.
Urban warfare is a nightmare — cf Fallujah this past month. No one — not even the Pentagon — expected Baghdad to collapse like it did.
We’re in a powderkeg situation that’s turning into a meatgrinder. Seeing just a few battalions of over-extended marines in the siege of Fallujah made me shudder, as visions of Stalingrad danced in my head. No, we won’t lose an army like the Germans did, but history does repeat itself, which seems lost on the civilian leaders of this nightmare.
As to nukes — why are we spending more on nukes now?
As to 1/2004, I didn’t expect such a rush to war. I amended that as time went on, picking mid-March, 2003, about a month beforehand, due to the no-moon desert nights then. Turned out I was off by a week or so.
The other thread that’s always run through my feelings on things has been this: we have no plan. Everything was seat of the pants, with insufficient reasons for the invasion. Just what really is said in the Energy Task Force documents? Remember, there was a document showing how to parcel out the oil fields.
I’m sorry, do we have a plan, or don’t we? Or do we just have an Evil Master Plan — a corporate strategy, so to speak — without Evil Tactical Plans?
Is it your suggestion that the Energy Task Force notes will reveal some sort of deal between the energy companies and the Bush Administration to invade Iraq and steal their oil? If so, then they should ask for their money back, because they’re sure the hell not doing much of a job of the latter.
It certainly sounds, both from articles you’ve posted, Scott, and from other things I’ve read, that the Administration went in without sufficient planning of what to do after Iraq was actually defeated. There is some justification for that — given the eleventy different ways the war itself could have gone — but not, seemingly, enough. (Of course, had the Administration gone in with detailed plans at the ready, they would have been accused of (a) deep, dark plots, and (b) imposing an American vision on Iraq even more than they have.)
The ongoing events in Fallujah and the like are definitely worrisome and troubling. The degree to which the represent everything falling apart, though, is unclear, at least to me. Media coverage is, where not slanted (one way or another), limited in what it actually is able to report back.
Dave…
There’s stealing oil, and then there’s what some of the info from the energy meetings have shown.
When you have maps of the Iraqi oil fields and start to discuss selling drilling rights and such, to me that sounds like a bit of fishiness on the task forces part.
And while selling oil for cheap might have some benefit it is not in the interest of those seeking profits. Plus, profits come in many guises:
Contracting out the rebuilding.
Contracting out the merc’s protecting the rebuilding (1/4 of the rebuilding money congress authorized is going to the various merc outfits).
Contracting out the drilling.
Contracting out the maintenance.
Contracting out the shipping of the oil.
So on and so forth.
So, not only can you make money doing all sorts of oil related work besides actually selling the stuff. And, in Iraq you get the added bonus of feeding at the public trough with any sort of over sight or threat of prosicution.
On the plus side, the oil was just a side benefit, not the goal.